DAS CARPENTER DISCUSSES REFORM WITH POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 000746

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM BA
SUBJECT: DAS CARPENTER DISCUSSES REFORM WITH POLITICAL
LEADERS


Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d)


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Summary
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1. (C) NEA Deputy Assistant Secretary Scott Carpenter met
with four political society leaders May 10 to discuss
Bahrain's reform process. The leaders -- two from the
boycotting opposition and two MPs -- acknowledged that
Bahrain needs further democratic reform but disagreed on the
impact of the current reforms and the preferred pace for
future developments. The meeting sparked some commentary in
the local press, particularly in one pro-Baathist newspaper,
with some columnists wondering if it may have been an
intervention in Bahrain's internal affairs. Representatives
of two political societies publicly defended the meeting and
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs inquired of the Ambassador
about the nature of the meeting.

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Four leaders express their views
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2. (C) Four political society leaders met with NEA DAS Scott
Carpenter May 10 to share their views on Bahrain's reform
process. The leaders -- Ibrahim Sharif and Mohammed Jameel
Al Jamry from the boycotting opposition and MPs Abdulnabi
Salman and Dr. Salah Ali from parliament -- concurred that
there is room for more reform, but disagreed on the current
status of reforms and the pace for future developments. All
except Dr. Salah believed "real dialogue" between the
government and the opposition was necessary if compromise and
progress were to be achieved. Carpenter told the
participants that the U.S. has singled out Bahrain for
praise, but expects consistent progress in the
democratization process.

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National Democratic Action Society
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3. (C) National Democratic Action Society (NDAS) President
Ibrahim Sharif explained that he and others in the boycotting
opposition refer all of their concerns directly to the King
because they consider the parliament to be powerless. The
King could decrease sectarian tensions by altering electoral
districts, which he claimed currently give an unfair
advantage to Sunni voters. He said that the opposition is
not asking to return to the 1973 constitution, but he
referred to it at least a dozen times. Sharif warned that
economic instability in Bahrain will grow as oil and gas
revenues decrease, and this could easily lead to political
instability if the GOB and the opposition are not on good
terms. NDAS, recognizing that the opposition could have a
louder voice if it were in parliament, will embark on a "soul
searching process" at the end of the year to decide if it
should participate in the 2006 elections. Sharif made a plea
for "outside pressure" on the government to engage with the
opposition. Without it, he asserted, the political
environment would fail to evolve and could deteriorate.

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Al Wifaq
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4. (C) Mohammed Jameel Al Jamry, a board member of leading
Shi'a opposition group Al Wifaq, said the opposition has done
a lot to stabilize the country by calming people down and
channeling people's frustrations into peaceful activity. Al
Wifaq's number one priority is gaining constitutional
amendments that are significant enough to justify its
participation in the 2006 elections. Unfortunately, he
explained, the GOB refuses to meet with the opposition or
renew a dialogue on issues of concern. Al Jamry rejected the
idea that Al Wifaq has a sectarian agenda, emphasizing that
constitutional reforms would benefit all Bahrainis.

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Democratic bloc MP
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5. (C) Democratic bloc MP Abdulnabi Salman said he did not
feel that the GOB is committed to reform. If the GOB were
truly interested in full participation in the 2006
parliamentary elections, it would engage in a dialogue with
the opposition and compromise on issues such as
constitutional reform and the election law. Instead, the GOB
is hassling oppositionists and missing opportunities to build
trust. Salman hoped that the international community would
support genuine reform in Bahrain. While acknowledging that
the parliament is not as strong as it could be, he rejected
the notion that it is powerless. In the past three years,
MPs have pressured the government on a number of key issues
including corruption, the constitution, and the need for
political parties.

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Al Minbar (Muslim Brotherhood) MP
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6. (C) President of the Al Minbar (Muslim Brotherhood) bloc
in parliament Dr. Salah Ali urged the oppositionists to join
the system. He commented that society is divided now because
some people do not recognize that reform is a process and
that realistically a society and government cannot change
overnight. It is true that there are many restrictions on
parliament, but it has been effective in instigating a
cabinet reshuffle and shifting power away from the Prime
Minister. Bahrain is more free than most countries in the
region. Pressure for change should come from inside Bahrain,
and not foreign countries.

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Reactions in the Press
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7. (C) Akhbar Al Khaleej, a daily newspaper with a wide
Sunni readership, printed an article May 12 on Carpenter's
meeting with the society leaders. The article noted some of
the issues discussed in the meeting and questioned why the
GOB allowed such a meeting to take place, especially after
its criticism of the British ambassador's meeting with the
opposition in October 2004. Al Wasat, an independent
newspaper with a mostly Shi'a readership, published similar
comments from the president of the Islamic Action Society, a
small boycotting group. Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Assistant Undersecretary for Coordination and Follow Up
Sheikh Abdul Aziz bin Mubarak Al Khalifa asked the Ambassador
about the meeting. The Ambassador explained that Carpenter
met with leaders who represented a variety of view points, as
he did when visiting any country. Sheikh Abdul Aziz seemed
satisfied with that information.


8. (C) Akhbar Al Khaleej also published two columns
condemning Al Minbar for participating in what it called a
closed meeting with a U.S. official. Al Minbar President
Salah Ali responded publicly saying that the meeting was not
secret and affirmed that Al Minbar is open to dialogue with

SIPDIS
everyone but refuses foreign pressure or intervention. Al
Asala (Salafi) bloc MP Adel Al Moawda told the press that
such meetings are acceptable as long as the participants'
intentions are good.


9. (C) Comment: Carpenter's meeting again highlighted the
challenges facing the GOB as it seeks to introduce greater
political reform. Achieving opposition participation in the
process is critical to securing broad-based support for
overall reforms, but this will require dialogue and
compromise on both sides. The opposition will have to accept
the constitution as the legal framework governing the
Kingdom, and the GOB will have to accept the idea that if
social tension is to ease, some electoral reform, however
modest, needs to take place.


10. (U) DAS Carpenter cleared this cable.
MONROE