KING'S CONFIDANT DISCUSSES REFORM ISSUES WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 000707

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BA
SUBJECT: KING'S CONFIDANT DISCUSSES REFORM ISSUES WITH
AMBASSADOR

Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe. Reason: 1.4 (B)(D)


1. (C) Summary. Minister of Industry and Commerce Hassan
Fakhro, in a May 16 conversation with the Ambassador, was
cautious about the possibility of gestures by the government
to entice opposition participation in the 2006 elections.
The government would be reluctant to redistrict because it
wanted to maintain an even Sunni-Shia balance in seats, he
stated, and was reluctant to change the appointed Shura
Council because the Shura acted in effect as the government's
ruling party in the parliament. Acknowledging that in his
view the recent closure of a website was a mistake, he said
democratic reform was a process, and we should focus on
trends, not day-to-day developments. Despite its lack of
success in passing legislation, the parliament is developing
real powers, particularly on budget matters and in
accountability of ministers. He took issue with a common
Shia complaint that the government neglected the economic
well-being of the Shia majority, citing employment figures
that reached as high as 80 percent Shia in one ministry. End
summary.


2. (C) The Ambassador called on Minister of Industry and
Commerce Hassan Fakhro, a close confidant of the King, May 16
to probe his thinking on democratic reform issues.


3. (C) The Ambassador noted that issues of democratic reform
and freedom of expression in the Arab world are high on the
agenda of the Bush Administration, and that Bahrain has
earned recognition in Washington for its steps to begin a
democratic reform process and grant women political rights.
It is precisely because of Bahrain's positive steps, however,
that the spotlight will shine on Bahrain as it moves towards
the 2006 elections and deals with pressures and provocations
from the opposition. The U.S., as it looks at Bahrain, hopes
for successful elections in 2006 and positive movement
forward on freedom of expression issues. In our discussions
with political circles in Bahrain, we are aware that there
are elements within the opposition (most notably, Al-Wifaq)
that would like to participate in next year's elections and
are looking for gestures from the government -- such as a
redistricting to more accurately reflect the Sunni-Shia
balance or a commitment to amend the government-appointed
Shura (upper) house. The Ambassador asked Fakhro how the
government saw the run-up to the elections proceeding, and
whether there might be possibilities for compromise.


4. (C) Fakhro said that we need to look at democratic reform
in Bahrain as a process, focusing not on the day-to-day
developments but rather the trends. Bahrain is feeling its
way, and the path to democracy will not be perfectly smooth.
He noted a recent Wall Street Journal article, which cited
the closing of a Bahrain-based website as a step backward.
He personally felt that the action taken against the website
was a mistake. Although there was concern about the kind of
language being used, the step taken caused more harm than
good, Fakhro acknowledged.


5. (C) Fakhro was cautious on possible gestures the
government could take to entice the opposition to participate
in the 2006 elections. Shia oppositionists frequently raise
the issue of electoral districts, pointing out that some
Sunni districts have far fewer voters than some Shia
districts. Fakhro said that the districting for the 2002
election was designed purposefully to create a 50-50 balance
in the lower Council of Representatives (COR). The results
did not match the expectation because of the boycott by the
largest Shia party, but at this stage in Bahrain's developing
democracy, Fakhro said, there is merit seen in trying to
maintain a balance in the elected parliament.


6. (C) Another gesture sought by the opposition is a
commitment to reduce the power or size of the appointed Shura
Council. Again, Fakhro was cautious. He noted that, unlike
in more developed parliamentary democracies, the government
does not have its own party to support it in the legislature.
It thus has no party that it can rely on to support its
agenda. The Shura members, who are appointed by the
government, play this role (comment: the nine-member
"Independent" bloc in the COR is considered by many to be
pro-government). Asked about efforts by some blocs in the
COR to legislate changes to the Shura Council (thereby
meeting a demand of the oppositionists),Fakhro was skeptical
that they had the votes to pass something in the COR (much
less get it through the Shura).


7. (C) Asked how he saw the political scene developing in
Bahrain, Fakhro expressed optimism that the 2006 elections
will proceed successfully with more participation than in
2002 and higher caliber parliamentarians. Longer term, he
said that the King would like to remove the prime minister
position from the royal family. This would help make the
prime minister and his government more accountable, as a
non-royal prime minister could more easily be removed for
performance reasons. (Comment: Fakhro clearly did not see
this happening until after current PM Shaikh Khalifa departs
from the scene.)


8. (C) On the current parliament, Fakhro said it should not
be judged solely on the number of bills it has passed (or not
passed). It is developing real powers, he stated, most
notably on the budget. He cited as examples his success in
getting the parliament to reduce by half the cut in funding
the government had recommended for his Ministry, and the
parliament's success in forcing the government to increase
payments made by government-owned oil company Bapco into the
government coffers. He added that the ability of
parliamentarians to question Ministers is unquestionably
making the Ministers more accountable, and cited a recent
infusion of funds into a village affected by an industrial
chemical release as a direct result of parliamentary pressure.


9. (C) Finally, Fakhro took issue with a common Shia
complaint that the Sunni leadership in Bahrain has neglected
the economic well-being of the Shia majority. He said that
70 percent of the employees in his Ministry are Shia. In the
Ministry of Electricity and Water, one of the largest
ministerial employers in the government, 80 percent are Shia,
10 percent are foreign, and 10 percent are Sunni. In the
government as a whole, even if the Ministry of Interior and
Bahrain Defense Force (known to hire less Shia for security
reasons) are included, Shias comprise 60-65 percent of the
total employees, he said.
MONROE