"CONSTITUTIONAL REFORMS FIRST" DEMONSTRATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 000672

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2015
TAGS: KDEM PGOV BA
SUBJECT: "CONSTITUTIONAL REFORMS FIRST" DEMONSTRATION
HIGHLIGHTS OPPOSITION'S DISCONTENT

REF: A. MANAMA 501


B. MANAMA 471

Classified By: DCM Susan L. Ziadeh for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) Four opposition political societies, represented by
the constitutional conference general secretariat, organized
a May 6 demonstration with the theme "Constitutional Reforms
First." The estimated 5,000-10,000 participants were
peaceful, and police kept a low profile. Opposition leaders
have expressed publicly and privately that they are using
demonstrations to increase pressure on the GOB in hopes of
gaining concessions on constitutional or elections reform.
The societies represented by the general secretariat
boycotted the 2002 parliamentary elections and have vowed to
boycott the 2006 elections unless they are granted a dialogue
with the King or his representative on amending the
constitution. End Summary.

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"Constitutional Reforms First"
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2. (SBU) An alliance of four opposition political societies,
represented by the constitutional conference general
secretariat, organized a May 6 demonstration calling for

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constitutional reforms. An estimated 5,000-10,000 people
attended the rally. Before launching the event, organizers
gave strict instructions to participants to cooperate fully
with police and refrain from using any signs or slogans that
did not represent either Bahrain or the rally's theme,
"Constitutional Reforms First." Participants were peaceful
and speakers did not engage in aggressive or hostile
rhetoric. Patriotic songs played in the background and
Bahraini flags were handed out. Traffic officials and police
kept a low profile.


3. (SBU) The event is a follow-on to the March 25 rally
organized by leading Shi'a opposition society Al Wifaq (Refs
A and B). The societies represented by the general
secretariat -- Al Wifaq, Al Amal Al Islami, National

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Democratic Action Society, and Al Tajamo' Al Qowmi --
boycotted the 2002 parliamentary elections and have vowed to
boycott the 2006 elections unless they are granted a dialogue
with the King or his representative on amending the
constitution.

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Minister of Social Affairs: Demonstrations are Ineffective
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4. (SBU) Despite earlier indications to the contrary, the
press announced that Ministry of Interior officials gave the
organizers permission to hold the demonstration and pledged
to provide support in regulating traffic. Following the
rally, Minister of Social Affairs Dr. Fatima Al Belooshi told
the press that demonstrations are an ineffective way of
addressing constitutional reform. She noted that only
parliament can change the constitution and encouraged the
opposition to participate in the electoral process.


5. (SBU) Al Wifaq President Sheikh Ali Salman responded
publicly May 7 saying that if parliamentarians really had the
power to make constitutional changes, they would have done so
in the past three years. The head of the general
secretariat, Jalila Al Sayed, told journalists that

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oppositionists had no choice but to hold demonstrations as
the GOB refuses to engage in dialogue with them. Prominent
Sunni cleric Sheikh Salah Al Jowder, who is also a municipal
councilman in a Sunni-concentrated area, attended the rally
and said that all political groups in Bahrain want
constitutional reform.

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Looking for a Royal Concession
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6. (C) Al Wifaq board member Nizar Al Qari told PolOff that
the four opposition societies had already decided that they
would participate in the 2006 parliamentary elections.
However, they need a face saving concession from the King in
order to announce their decision publicly. (Comment: This is
so they can justify having boycotted the political system
since 2002. End comment.) In holding a series of
demonstrations, the opposition seeks to increase tension so
that the King will be forced to intervene and engage
seriously with the opposition.


7. (C) Mansour Al Jamry (protect),editor-in-chief of
independent daily newspaper Al Wasat, told the Ambassador at
a lunch in honor of visiting Council on Foreign Relations
President Richard Haass, that leading Shi'a cleric Sheikh
Issa Qassem had sent a message through Al Jamry offering to
meet with the King to discuss the constitutional issue, but
the King had not responded. Al Jamry said that, in his view,
all the Shi'a political demands are negotiable; they just
want the opportunity to discuss the issues with the King.
The types of concessions they are looking for include the
redistricting of electoral boundaries, a decrease in the
appointed Shura Council's authority, and constitutional
amendments. (Note: The MEPI-funded National Democratic
Institute has held several conferences and seminars recently
on these issues. End Note.)

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Comment
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8. (C) The opposition is organizing demonstrations to
pressure the GOB so it can create a face-saving way of
getting into the political game. Working outside of the
system, there is little that it can provide in terms of
housing, jobs, and other issues of concern to Bahrainis.
Several of the prominent oppositionists are realizing this,
and some are privately expressing interest in getting into
the parliament, even if the legislature is not as strong as
they would like it to be. The GOB's decision to allow the
May 6 demonstration may point to the government's recognition
that actions perceived as restricting freedoms backfire and
bring additional pressure onto the government. Given that
parliamentary elections are still 18 months away, there is
still plenty of time to resolve these matters. But pressure
is building, even among the more mainstream oppositionists,
for a resolution to come sooner rather than later.

MONROE