FORMIN AGREES ON NEED FOR PUBLIC STATEMENTS OF

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 000058

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV BA IZ
SUBJECT: FORMIN AGREES ON NEED FOR PUBLIC STATEMENTS OF
SUPPORT FOR IRAQ ELECTIONS

REF: STATE 4932

Classified by Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (S) In response to the Ambassador's January 11 delivery
of reftel demarche on Iraqi elections, Foreign Minister
Shaikh Mohammed bin Mubarak Al Khalifa quickly agreed to make
public statements in support of the elections. He said that
the January 6 Iraq Neighbors conference in Amman did not
result in a statement as "clear and forceful" as he would
have liked regarding support for the elections. In Amman, he
had proposed that the group issue a statement in Baghdad in
order to speak directly to the Iraqi people. Jordanian
Foreign Minister Al Mulki was ready to do it but Iraqi
Foreign Minister Zebari was "hesitant" about the idea.
Addressing sectarian concerns, Zebari had said that no one
group in Iraq had the right to rule another. Shaikh Mohammed
complained that there were problems in Bahrain's
communication with Iraq's Sunnis; Iraq's Shia have been more
active with Bahrain. End Summary.

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Speaking Clearly and Forcefully - In Baghdad?
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2. (S) Ambassador January 11 delivered reftel demarche on
underscoring the importance of Iraqi elections moving forward
as scheduled to Foreign Minister Shaikh Mohammed bin Mubarak
Al Khalifa. The Ambassador emphasized that public
expressions of support for the elections were most important
and noted that Egyptian President Mubarak had done so twice
in recent days. The Minister replied, "yes, I will do that."
He continued that the aims of the January 6 Iraq Neighbors
conference in Amman were (1) to ensure that neighboring
countries, particularly Syria and Iran, not interfere in
Iraq's domestic affairs, and (2) to support the elections
"clearly and forcefully;" that is, to urge all Iraqis to
participate and all of Iraq's neighbors to support them. He
commented that the conference did not accomplish these aims
as well as it could have.


3. (S) Shaikh Mohammed said that the only initiatives on the
agenda in Amman were from Bahrain - the King's previously
proposed invitation for an Iraqi moderates conference in
Manama, and Shaikh Mohammed's suggestion that meeting chair
Jordanian Foreign Minister Al Mulki issue a public statement
of support in Baghdad. Representatives of the UN and Arab
League could be present at the announcement. The other
ministers agreed it was a good idea but Iraqi Foreign
Minister Zebari was hesitant, though he did not reject the
proposal outright. Shaikh Mohammed reiterated that he is
ready to go to Baghdad at any time for this purpose. Such a
statement would appeal directly to the Iraqi people, saying
that the elections are a unique opportunity and they should
take advantage of it.

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No One Group Has Right to Rule Others
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4. (S) In response to the Ambassador's question, the Foreign
Minister said that Zebari was very optimistic about the
elections, expecting up to 8 million voters to participate.
Regarding Iraq's Sunnis, the Foreign Minister said that
Zebari had told the conference that the "minority would not
rule the majority and the majority would not rule the
minority." He had said the constitutional principle was that
no one group had the right to rule others. The Ambassador
commented that SCIRI leader Al Hakim had said the right
things during his recent visit to Bahrain. Shaikh Mohammed
agreed and noted that many Iraqi Shia had come to Bahrain
(Hakim's son Amer Abdul Aziz Al Hakim is here now),but
Iraq's Sunnis had not done so. He said there were problems
in Bahrain's communication with the Sunnis. (Note: IIG
President Yawar visited Bahrain for several weeks in
November. End Note.) The Ambassador stated that as many
Sunnis as possible should participate in the elections so
they feel they have a stake in Iraq's future.


5. (S) The Minister stated that this election will have a
major impact on the future of the region. The participation
of Turkey and Iran in the neighbors meetings is important.
He noted that some Arabs feel hesitant about Zebari. They
were surprised when he spoke in English at the Sharm meeting
rather than in Arabic. Shaikh Mohammed said, "you cannot
pull Iraq from the Arab world." The majority of the
population - Sunni and Shia - are Arabs, not Kurds, Turks, or
Persians. Despite the concerns, Zebari, he said, is a "good,
reasonable, down-to-earth" man.


6. (S) Shaikh Mohammed stated that Iran was strong in Basra
but other areas of the country are opposed to Iranian
interference. There are fears of Iran's expansionist
tendencies in Iraq and throughout the region. He commented
that the Iranian government should be more concerned with
providing good education and clean water to its citizens than
about spending billions on the military.


7. (U) Baghdad minimize considered.

MONROE