CROWN PRINCE DISCUSSES DEMOCRACY, TRADE, SECURITY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 000544 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/2015 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ETRD PTER ASEC BA SUBJECT: CROWN PRINCE DISCUSSES DEMOCRACY, TRADE, SECURITY WITH AMBASSADOR REF: A. MANAMA 531 ¶B. MANAMA 501 ¶C. MANAMA 471 Classified by Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (S) The Ambassador met with Crown Prince Salman April 11 to review the CP's upcoming trip to Washington. While noting that the CP's primary focus was ratification of the free trade agreement (FTA),the Ambassador told him that American officials will also want to discuss the political situation in Bahrain, particularly reform and democratization. The CP said that the government is suspicious of the role Iran plays within Bahrain's Shia community and fears growing sectarianism in society. Many Bahraini Sunnis perceived a planned series of Shia demonstrations as a threat and complained to the government. He noted that Shia opposition society Al Wifaq agreed to abide by the law with respect to future marches. The government wants to promote unity within society by creating an environment supportive to all, and a strong justice system would give people confidence that they are protected. The CP said that he will ask the Administration and Congress to move ahead with ratification of the U.S.-Bahrain Free Trade Agreement (FTA). In response to the Ambassador's comments, the CP said that the government continues to monitor closely the terrorism suspects, and is working to penetrate the extremists to deal with the long-term threat they represent. End Summary. -------------- Avoiding Sectarian Conflict -------------- ¶2. (C) The Ambassador met with Crown Prince Salman April 11 to discuss the CP's upcoming April 19-22 visit to Washington. While an important focus of the trip will be to encourage rapid ratification of the FTA, the Ambassador stated he anticipated that Administration officials will also want to discuss the political situation in Bahrain, in particular continued reform and democratization. While the President and others have praised Bahrain and King Hamad, people notice and get concerned when the GOB takes actions such as closing the Bahrain Center for Human Rights, detaining the website administrators of an on-line opposition forum, and refusing an application to hold a demonstration. The Crown Prince said that he welcomed the opportunity to address these issues. He stated that Bahrain is suspicious of Iran and the role it plays inside Bahrain's Shia community. There were fears that the large Shia demonstration held March 25 in Sitra (Ref C) could have ignited sectarian conflict. Bahrain's Sunnis perceived the demonstrations as a threat and complained to the government. When threatened, the CP commented, people can lash out. ¶3. (C) The Ambassador responded that the March 25 demonstration was peaceful, and asked why the GOB was so concerned. The CP said that the organizers, Shia opposition society Al Wifaq, had planned to hold additional demonstrations in other areas of the country. Al Wifaq broke the law by holding the Sitra march without a permit, and Minister of Social Affairs Al Belooshi, in her meeting with Al Wifaq officials, told them they must respect the law (Ref B). If they want to change the law, they should participate in the political system. In the meeting, Al Wifaq agreed to abide by the law. -------------- Creating an Environment Supportive to All -------------- ¶4. (C) The Crown Prince stated that currently in Bahrain almost all social and political organizations are sectarian in nature. When people are fighting for their identity, they form into associations familiar to them. The CP said that "we don't want to see what happened in Lebanon occur here." The Shia, the Crown Prince said, have the numbers, but the Sunnis have the guns. The government had to manage the situation carefully to ensure it did not explode. ¶5. (C) Sectarian conflict can be avoided, he continued, by creating an environment supportive to all. The government should not consistently support the agenda of one group over another. In this regard, the CP said that the government is aware of Shia calls for members of the community to be integrated into the Bahrain Defense Force (BDF) and the Ministry of Interior (MOI). However, the BDF and MOI leaderships react negatively when they see senior Shia religious cleric Shaikh Issa Qassem speaking in front of a photograph of Khomeini, who they consider to be a foreign political leader. A message of national unity must get out. He said, "Bahrain has worked hard not to become a vassal of Saudi Arabia, and we're certainly not going to let ourselves become a vassal of Iran." -------------- Ongoing Process of Democratization -------------- ¶6. (C) The Ambassador stated that the region must go through a process of democratization. This can sometimes be messy, but in the end society becomes more dynamic politically and economically. The CP said that the citizens have to buy into the system, and this process can come in fits and starts. Societies need a strong justice system so the people feel confident they will be protected. Elections are not enough. He said that Bahrain is moving forward and finding its way, but the process can be tough at times. -------------- Forging Ahead on FTA Ratification -------------- ¶7. (C) The Crown Prince said that he will ask the Administration and Congress to move ahead on ratification of the U.S.-Bahrain FTA during his visit. Bahrain is under pressure from the EU to delay ratification and implementation, claiming the bilateral FTA with the U.S. would harm the GCC customs union and its relationship with the EU (Ref A). He rejected this claim, and said he would also discuss the political benefits to the U.S. of demonstrating enhanced economic cooperation with the countries of the region. He pointed out that FTA negotiations with the UAE and Oman came as a result of the agreement with Bahrain. The Ambassador noted that the Saudi Ambassador to Bahrain was quoted in the press April 1 saying that the U.S.-Bahrain FTA "is positive and stimulated many Gulf countries to revise their authoritarian (commercial) regimes." The CP replied that Saudi Arabia is now negotiating a bilateral FTA with Singapore. ¶8. (C) The CP told the Ambassador that he and his staff were reaching out to the political blocs in parliament to explain the upcoming draft legislation on labor. He noted that reactions to the labor reform initiative do not break out in any predictable manner and it is not being viewed in sectarian terms. -------------- Dealing with Long-Term Extremist Threat -------------- ¶9. (S) The Ambassador said that we continue to remain focused on the security situation in Bahrain. We have noticed an improvement in cooperation with the GOB over the past few months, and appreciate that the government continues its tight surveillance of the terrorism suspects. We hope that the suspects will be vigorously prosecuted, but in any event it is critical that the close surveillance on them be maintained. The Crown Prince responded that the government is watching the suspects closely and is also monitoring a mosque in East Riffa. The threat is long-term, and the GOB is working to penetrate the extremists. He attributed the stronger bilateral security cooperation to the presence of former Bahraini Ambassador to the U.S. Shaikh Khalifa's presence at the Bahrain National Security Agency. The CP noted that the government had passed the draft counter-terrorism law to parliament but, due to public opposition from some parliamentarians, he indicated he was unsure whether it would pass in its current form. -------------- Commitment to Bahrain School -------------- ¶10. (C) The CP thanked the U.S. for its support for the DOD Bahrain School and said that the GOB is similarly committed. He recognized that the school will have to develop a strategy for the future and pledged that the Bahraini government will play a role in ensuring the school's continued viability and high standards. MONROE