SCENESETTER FOR COMBATANT COMMANDER CENTRAL COMMAND,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 000193

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECLASSIFY 02/09/2005
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS PGOV ASEC PTER KDEM BA IZ
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR COMBATANT COMMANDER CENTRAL COMMAND,
VISIT TO BAHRAIN 15-16 February 2005

REF: HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL MSG DTG 271630Z JAN 05

Classified By: (U) Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (S) General Abizaid, we look forward to your visit to
Bahrain. We have asked for a call on the Crown Prince and
Commander in Chief of Bahrain Defence Force, Shaikh Salman bin
Hamad Al Khalifa and Minister of Defense, General Shaikh Khalifa
bin Ahmed Al Khalifa. We also expect you will have the
opportunity to meet the newly appointed BDF Chief of Staff Major
General Sheikh Duaij bin Salman bin Ahmed Al Khalifa.

Counter-terrorism
--------------


2. (S) The GOB and Bahrainis in general are casting a wary eye
northward and our concerned about the recent terrorist attacks
in Kuwait. The death of a Bahraini student visiting Kuwait
allegedly caught in the crossfire has brought the deadly reality
of potential terrorism closer to home. Minister of Interior
Shaikh Rashid Al-Khalifa was dispatched to Kuwait following the
latest round of attacks for consultations with the Kuwaiti
authorities. An FBI team will arrive next week to begin work
with the Ministry of Interior to establish a Counterterrorism
Operations Center (CTOC). In your meeting, the Crown Prince
will want to hear your latest thinking on regional efforts to
combat counterterrorism and will be interested to hear your take
on developments in Kuwait.

Bahrain School
--------------


3. (S) As always, the status and continuity of the Bahrain
School will be on the Crown Prince's mind. We are awaiting a
letter from the Secretary Rumsfeld to the Crown Prince in which
we will signal our continued support for the school and the need
for financial assistance from the GOB. We hope to be able to
transmit that letter before your meeting. Your visit will offer
an opportunity to follow up with the Crown Prince on that
request and reinforce the USG commitment to the Bahrain School.

Cabinet Shuffle
--------------


4. (S) Since your last visit in December 2004, there was a
minor reshuffling of government portfolios. Although not of
direct importance to the Ministry of Defense, the personnel
changes reflect a continuing evolution with some of the Prime
Minister's supporters eased out of key ministries (notably
Finance and Cabinet Affirs),and individuals more in line with
the King's and Crown Prince's reform agendas assuming the
portfolios. One other personnel change of note is that Bahrain's
former ambassador to the U.S. Ambassador Khalifah Al-Khalifa has
recently assumed the position of Deputy at the BNSA.

Iraq/Iran
--------------


5. (S) Bahrain supports our goals and role in Iraq. King Hamad
and the Council of Ministers hailed the Iraqi elections as a
success. They recognize the critical nature of stabilizing the
security situation, and hope the Iraqis establish a government
that represents all of the country's communities. The
empowerment of Iraq's Shia community has reverberated strongly
in Bahrain, and Bahrain's Shia community, the majority of which
boycotted municipal and Parliamentary elections in 2002, are
taking a closer look at upcoming elections in 2006 as a result.
On Iran, the GOB continues to be worried about Iranian influence
and instability in Iraq that could impact Bahrain's own Shia
majority, and ultimately affect Bahrain's reforms in the
political and economic spheres. Bahrain has
historically kept an eye on potential Iranian threats to
Bahrain and the region, and their interest in containing Iran
dovetails with ours. Bahraini leaders, at the same time, stress
their hope that the Iran WMD problem will be resolved
diplomatically.

Bilateral Military Ties
--------------


6. (S) Our bilateral military relationship with Bahrain remains
very strong. With the appointment of the new permanent Chief of
Staff, Major General Sheikh Duaij bin Salman bin Ahmed Al
Khalifa (as of 5 February, former commander of Special Forces),
marking the 37th anniversary of the BDF, we are confident that
our military relationship will continue to flourish. This
appointment is welcome after the sudden departure of General
Rashid (Chief of Staff to Minister of Interior) and General Al
Zayani (Assistant Chief of Staff for Operations to Director of
Public Security) to the Ministry of Interior (MOI) some eight
months ago, which impacted the leadership in the BDF due to no
ready successors.


7. (S) With ever increasing scrutiny of the defense budget by
parliament, recently reduced oil revenue grants from Saudi
Arabia, and an increased emphasis on commercial development, we
have noticed a significant reduction of new FMS purchases and
BDF difficulty in modernization and sustainment of existing
programs over the past 12 months. We continue to have strong
support for our bilateral exercise program to include leveraging
the presence of NAVCENT, and the BDF continues to lead by
hosting events such as the regional CENTCOM Disaster
Preparedness Conference. The annual Special Forces exercise
INHERENT FURY is in progress and exercise NEON FALCON, supported
by NAVCENT, will start in one week. Bahrain has committed two
Special Forces platoons to deploy to Afghanistan in support of
the GWOT. The first platoon is currently training in the UAE and
is expected to deploy with an Emirate element in April 2005.
Finally, the Military Consultative Committee (MCC) meeting will
occur in Washington from 22-24 February with the theme being
counter-terrorism. The BDF plays a supporting role in this
effort with the MOI as the lead agency.

MONROE