GENERAL ABIZAID DISCUSSES IRAQ, IRAN WITH CROWN

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAMA 001889 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2015 TAGS: PREL MARR BA IZ IR BILAT OFFICIALS CTR REGION SUBJECT: GENERAL ABIZAID DISCUSSES IRAQ, IRAN WITH CROWN PRINCE, DEFENSE MINISTER Classified by Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Centcom Commander General Abizaid December 21 met separately with Crown Prince Salman and Defense Minister Shaikh Khalifa and discussed the situation in Iraq, Iranian influence in Iraq, Al Qaida, Afghanistan, and the bilateral military relationship. Regarding Iraq, both the CP and DefMin expressed concerns about Abdul Aziz Al Hakim becoming prime minister and instituting a pro-Iran "theocracy." However, the GOB supports the Iraqi government and the political process and will take part in a February Arab League meeting in Baghdad. The CP emphasized Arabs' worries that the U.S. and Iran will strike a "grand bargain" that would allow for international inspection of Iran's nuclear program in exchange for Iranian freedom of movement in Iraq. Abizaid assured him that so long as Iran poses a threat to our friends, we would not work with Iran in this way. The CP noted that the Al Qaida attack in Jordan had been a bad move, turning Arabs further away from the terror organization. The CP said the U.S.-Bahrain military relationship was working very well, with close coordination on force protection and counter-terrorism issues. The CP raised the issue of the return of Navy dependents. End Summary. -------------- Concern About Al Hakim as Prime Minister -------------- ¶2. (C) In separate meetings December 21, Centcom Commander General Abizaid discussed Iraq, Iran, Al Qaida, Afghanistan, and the U.S.-Bahrain military relationship with Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa and Defense Minister General Shaikh Khalifa bin Ahmed Al Khalifa. In response to Abizaid's briefing on the elections in Iraq, the Crown Prince said that the main concern of Iraq's Sunnis is that they not be ruled by a Shia theocracy. The prospect of Abdul Aziz Al Hakim becoming prime minister is not comforting. Shaikh Khalifa echoed this sentiment, saying that Iraqis who are pro-Iran should not be in power because they would have loyalty to a religious leader rather than to the political system. Shaikh Khalifa offered that Al Hakim is the politician most likely to be named prime minister, followed by current PM Ibrahim Al Jaafari and former PM Iyad Allawi. Abizaid said that many Iraqi Shia look to Iran for help, but they are Arabs first. He suggested that current Vice President Adel Abdul Mahdi has a good chance of becoming prime minister. The CP emphasized that the GOB supports the Iraqi government and has participated in conferences in Cairo and Jeddah backing the political process. Bahrain will take part in an Arab League meeting in Baghdad in February. ¶3. (C) The CP commented that he had heard reports of Iranian infiltration of the Iraqi Interior Ministry. Abizaid said this was true in the south; the Ministry of Interior recruits its personnel locally, and the staff bring their local issues with them into the security forces. The army has a different recruitment system and is in better shape. The U.S. will focus on improving the police forces during 2006. -------------- Worries About U.S.-Iran "Grand Bargain" -------------- ¶4. (C) The Crown Prince said that many Bahrainis and others in the region are concerned that the U.S. will negotiate a grand bargain with Iran that would allow for inspection of Iran's nuclear program in exchange for Iranian freedom of movement in Iraq. The Arabs are concerned they could be the losers in such a deal. Abizaid replied that Iran will not be permitted to play a devious role in Iraq. It is not like the old days, and the Iranians know there are limits to the games they can play. Speaking as a military man, Abizaid said, so long as Iran poses a threat to our friends, we would not work with Iran in this way. ¶5. (C) Crown Prince Salman said that both Sunnis and Shias are obliged to give alms equal to 20 percent of their annual profit to a religious leader. It would be interesting to track the flows of alms in Iraq to understand who controls the funds and who benefits. Usually clerics use the money to build local networks by helping people with daily expenses - for example, for new appliances and tuition. Abizaid said he understood this practice occurs but he has not heard that Sistani uses alms in such a political way. Sistani plays a helpful role in stabilizing the country; he is not being pulled by the Iranians and he generally does not interfere in politics. ¶6. (C) Turning to the domestic situation in Iran, the CP said that new President Ahmadi-Nejad is "a loose cannon." Some say he is frustrating the senior levels of the Iranian system and is harming the vested interests of members of the establishment, such as Rafsanjani. Ahmadi-Nejad sees himself as a reformer, but he is inexperienced, overconfident, and arrogant. Abizaid commented that Ahmadi-Nejad could misread the situation and make a serious miscalculation. The good news is that U.S. military power in the region is sufficient to deter Iran. -------------- Al Qaida Support Down -------------- ¶7. (C) The Crown Prince said that Al Qaida operations come and go in waves. The Jordan attack was a bad move, turning more Arabs against the terror group. Al Qaida thought it would have easy victories, but this did not happen. It thought it could sow instability in Saudi Arabia, but this did not happen. The "recruiting drive" that started on 9/11 has now ended. Abizaid stated that the organization remains very dangerous, but on a tactical level only. It does not have the ability to take a country, like it did before. Because of Zarqawi, its ideological appeal is down. The CP said that if Al Qaida renounced violence, it would look like many other Islamist parties in the region. He worries about existing Islamist parties tilting toward violence. ¶8. (C) Abizaid praised the performance of the Bahraini special forces unit that was deployed to Afghanistan. The Crown Prince said he was proud of them. He noted there had been a spike in violence in the south during the past year and wondered if the Taliban were planning a spring offensive. The Defense Minister commented that President Karzai is a strong leader and is doing well. Abizaid said President Musharraf was doing a good job going after Al Qaida on Pakistani territory but he was not clamping down on the Taliban hiding inside Pakistan. Pakistan's intelligence services could be more active in this area. -------------- Strong Bilateral Military Relationship -------------- ¶9. (C) In response to Abizaid's question, the Crown Prince said that the U.S.-Bahrain military relationship is going very well. Bahrain is working closely with the Navy base on any force protection and counter-terrorism issues. The Crown Prince raised the issue of the return of U.S. Navy depedents. Gen. Abizaid said that the issue is being looked at. MONROE