AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH LEADING SHIA OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAMA 001860 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BA OFFICIALS POL REFORM SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH LEADING SHIA OPPOSITION LEADER SHAIKH ALI SALMAN Classified By: CDA Susan L. Ziadeh. Reason: 1.4 (b)(d) - - - - SUMMARY - - - - - ¶1. (C) In a December 14 meeting with the Ambassador, Al-Wifaq President Shaikh Ali Salman stated that support within Al-Wifaq to end its boycott and participate in the 2006 parliamentary elections was strong, and that he expected Al-Wifaq to win a maximum of 15 out of 40 seats in the Council of Representatives. Despite Al-Wifaq's apparent decision to compete (final decision will be made in January), Shaikh Ali made it clear that Al-Wifaq remains mistrustful of the government's intentions and frustrated over lack of movement on key concerns such as electoral constituencies that favor Sunni over Shia. He denied that Iran had any political influence over Al-Wifaq, maintaining that ties were limited to religious connections. He praised Bahrain for its tolerance towards all religions, and said Al-Wifaq endorsed Bahrain's strong relations with the U.S. He expressed concern over how to deal with Shia activists, who have broken from Al-Wifaq over its decision to register as a political society, but stated that they have a genuine concern regarding unemployment. He acknowledged, at the same time, that he did not know much about the Crown Prince's labor reform proposals, which are focused on the very problem of unemployment that so concerns Shia. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FIRST AMBASSADOR MEETING SINCE ELECTION BOYCOTT DECISION - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) The Ambassador met for 90 minutes December 14 with Al-Wifaq National Islamic Society President Shaikh Ali Salman. This meeting marked the first time that a U.S. Ambassador had met with the head of the leading opposition political society since Al-Wifaq decided to boycott the 2002 parliamentary elections. Although the meeting, which was brokered by leading Shia businessman and Al-Wifaq member Faisal Jawad, had been planned for some time, it was coincidentally held on the day that the press reported that Minister of Justice Al-Sitri had formally approved Al-Wifaq's application to be registered as a political society. With this approval, it is widely expected that Al-Wifaq will announce in January it decision to participate in the 2006 parliamentary elections. The head of Al-Wifaq's public 
relations directorate, Shaikh Hussain Aldaihi, and Faisal Jawad also attended the meeting. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - STRONG SUPPORT FOR PARTICIPATION IN ELECTIONS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) The Ambassador opened the discussion by congratulating Shaikh Ali on the formal registration of Al-Wifaq, and stated that it has always been the strong position of the United States that political societies like Al-Wifaq should participate in the election process. Shaikh Ali, observing that formal Ministry of Justice approval had dragged on for weeks, said he was pleased that Al-Wifaq was finally registered. (Note: the approval process had been delayed as the Ministry of Justice and Al-Wifaq negotiated over technical points in the Al-Wifaq application. The apparent delay in gaining final approval had generated concern among some that Al-Wifaq, having made the decision to register, was being left in legal limbo. The official announcement of registration should alleviae those concerns. End note.) ¶4. (C) Noting tha the proposal to register as a political societyhad received strong support when the issue was vote on earlier in the fall, the Ambassador asked ifhe had a similar level of support on the questio of actual participation in the parliamentary elctions. Shaikh Ali stated that support for regitration had been around 88 percent, and that he epected similar support for participation in the elections. He added that it would make things easier if the government proceeded to set dates for both the municipal elections (expected in May) and the parliamentary elections (expected in October). He also noted recurring rumors that the King plans to postpone the parliamentary elections for two years. The Ambassador stated that he had been reassured at the highest levels that the elections would proceed as planned in 2006. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - BUT DISTRUST OF GOVERNMENT REMAINS HIGH - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) Despite Al-Wifaq's apparent plans to contest the 2006 parliamentary elections, Shaikh Ali said that there remains great distrust in Al-Wifaq and among Shia more generally about the intentions of the government. He covered much familiar ground, complaining about the King's decision in the new constitution to install an appointed Shura of equal size and slightly more power to the elected Council of Representatives. He repeatedly raised his frustration on the issue of constituencies and the way boundaries were drawn up to favor Sunnis and underrepresent Shia. He asked why the King was so quick to bring in Sunni Arabs from neighboring countries and give them citizenship. He noted that certain Shia who were supposedly pardoned by the King continue to have trouble traveling to certain neighboring countries like Kuwait, which say they have been asked by the Government of Bahrain not to let them in. (Note: the government has stated that it has no ban on travel to other countries, and it is not clear what is behind this issue.) He acknowledged that the Ministry of Interior has made a start in employing Shia, but that it is too soon to tell how successful or meaningful this will be. ¶6. (C) Although it appears that Al-Wifaq will participate in the 2006 parliamentary elections without gaining any prior concessions from the King (as it had long demanded),Shaikh Ali said that he still hopes for a gesture from the King. He added that we would welcome dialogue with the King. (Note: although there had been a dialogue between boycotting societies and a government committee, that dialogue was broken off by the government more than a year ago. End note.) ¶7. (C) Although he felt strongly that the electoral constituencies, as currently drawn, would negatively affect Al-Wifaq's showing at the polls, Shaikh Ali expected Al-Wifaq to win a maximum of 15 seats in next year's parliamentary elections, out of a total of 40 seats in the Council of Representatives. This would no doubt make Al-Wifaq the largest political society in the new parliament. -------------- IRAN HAS NO INFLUENCE OVER AL-WIFAQ -------------- ¶8. (C) The Ambassador asked about Al-Wifaq's relations with Iran, noting the government's concern about Iranian influence within Bahrain's Shia community. Shaikh Ali denied that Iran had any influence over Al-Wifaq as an political organization. While there are certainly religious connections, he said, these ties do not extend beyond that. Al-Wifaq does not want a Bahrain controlled by Iran, just as it does not want a Shia Bahrain or a Sunni Bahrain. It wants a Bahrain for all Bahrainis. ¶9. (C) Shaikh Ali spoke favorably of Bahrain's traditional tolerance for all religions and sects, observing that it is widely accepted that all religions should be free to observe and practice their faith in Bahrain. -------------- ENDORSEMENT OF RELATIONS WITH THE U.S. -------------- ¶10. (C) Shaikh Ali also welcomed and endorsed Bahrain's strong bilateral relationship with the United States. -------------- -- SHIA ACTIVISTS HAVE GENUINE EMPLOYMENT CONCERNS -------------- -- ¶11. (C) Asked about Shia activists who have broken away from Al-Wifaq over the issue of political registration and have engaged in a series of recurring demonstrations, some of which have turned violent, Shaikh Ali stated that he was worried about how to deal with them. He said that there is genuine frustration among many Shia over the issue of unemployment, and activists like Al-Khawaja are tapping into this. The jobs issue is real, he stressed. ¶12. (C) The Ambassador asked how Shaikh Ali viewed the Crown Prince's labor reform proposals, which seemed to be a sincere effort to deal with the unemployment issue. Because unemployment disproportionally affects Shia, this would seem to be an initiative the Shia community would support. Shaikh Ali acknowledged that he did not really know much about the Crown Prince's labor reforms, so could not comment. The Ambassador, noting the generational differences between the Prime Minister (the King's uncle),the King, and the Crown Prince (the King's son),asked if Shaikh Ali looked more favorably towards the younger, more reform-minded leadership. Shaikh Ali said that if he had been asked this question three or four years ago, he most certainly would have replied affirmatively. However, with disappointment over constitutional issues and allegations that the younger generation is as corrupt in its own way as the older generation (specifically in the way that it benefits from land deals, most notably the sale of land to be reclaimed from the sea for big development projects),he is now less sure that things have really changed. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (C) Shaikh Ali was warm and engaging, and welcomed the opportunity to meet with the U.S. Ambassador. One year ago, the government publicly rebuked the British Ambassador when he met with Shaikh Ali, arguing that by meeting with the leader of a society which rejected participation in the electoral process, the British Ambassador was interfering in Bahrain's internal affairs. With Al-Wifaq's decision to register (and presumably participate),times have changed in Bahrain. But in heading towards participation without gaining the concessions he had long sought, Shaikh Ali feels he is taking a risk, and he hopes for U.S. support in pushing his agenda. ZIADEH