PEACEFUL HUMAN RIGHTS DAY MARCHES REINFORCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MANAMA 001839 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2015 TAGS: PGOV ASEC PHUM KDEM BA HUMRIT POL REFORM SUBJECT: PEACEFUL HUMAN RIGHTS DAY MARCHES REINFORCE NEW-FOUND CALM REF: MANAMA 1773 Classified by DCM Susan L. Ziadeh for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) More than 5,000 people marched in peaceful International Human Rights Day rallies December 9, a sharp contrast to the small but sometimes destructive demonstrations that took place in and around Manama November 29-December 2. The Committee for the Unemployed, which had organized the violent demonstrations, agreed December 1 in a meeting with Al Wifaq President Shaikh Ali Salman to suspend all protest activities. In their Friday prayer sermons on December 2, several leading clerics, both Shia and Sunni, called for an end to the clashes. Interior Minister Shaikh Rashed met with several activists and pledged to include "neutral parties" in an investigation of the alleged kidnapping/beating that sparked the violence. He also announced his intention to hire 2,000 citizens during 2006. Prominent mainstream columnists praised the peaceful December 9 marches and warned that civil strife would drag the country backward. While moderate Shia oppositionists once again demonstrated their ability to control the fringe elements and to prompt favorable action by the government, responsible members of the GOB and Al Wifaq will face continuing challenges in the months ahead in the run-up to next year's elections. End Summary. -------------- Peaceful Rallies for Human Rights Day... -------------- ¶2. (U) More than 5,000 people participated in peaceful demonstrations December 9 to mark International Human Rights Day. The largest rally, which observers estimated drew between 4,500 (Ministry of Interior) and 35,000 (organizers) participants, was planned by the alliance of four boycotting societies - the Shia Al Wifaq and Islamic Action societies and the secular Al Waad and Progressive Democratic Forum societies. The theme of the demonstration was "Rights and Dignity" and several senior Shia clerics, including Shaikh Isa Qassem and Shaikh Abdulla Al Ghuraifi, led the protesters on a march along the corniche in downtown Manama. By all accounts, even that of pan-Arabist daily Akhbar Al Khaleej, no friend of Shia activists, the march was well-organized and disciplined. A second rally of note was held by the Bahrain Human Rights Society (BHRS). Some 60 supporters marched in a section of Manama adjacent to the location of the larger rally. In a speech, BHRS Secretary General Sabeeka Al Najjar called for the repeal of a decree granting amnesty to police officers accused of abuses before 2001. -------------- ...Follow End of Violent Clashes -------------- ¶3. (U) The day's activities were in vivid contrast with the sometimes violent and destructive demonstrations that took place November 29-December 2 in and around Manama (reftel). The protests petered out following a December 1 meeting between Al Wifaq President Shaikh Ali Salman and the leadership of the Committee for the Unemployed, which includes activist Abdul Hadi Al Khawaja and former Executive Director of the closed Bahrain Center for Human Rights Nabeel Rajab. In his December 2 Friday prayer sermon, Salman said that the Committee had agreed to suspend all protest activities and he criticized those who continued to take to the streets in spite of the Committee's decision. In his sermon, Shaikh Isa Qassem said, "As much as I encourage the government to resolve the issue (of unemployment) and to respect human dignity, I also call on our youth not to allow their emotions" to control their actions. Salafi cleric Shaikh Salah Al Jowder, who is an exception among Salafi clerics because of his occasional outreach to Shia, said in his sermon that holding protests and rallies are the right of the people, but when these demonstrations get out of control and harm the public interest, they are unacceptable to any logical person. -------------- Interior Minister Defuses Crisis -------------- ¶4. (U) Another important contributing factor to reestablishing calm in Bahrain was Minister of Interior Shaikh Rashed bin Abdulla Al Khalifa's December 3 meeting with Moussa Abdali, whose alleged kidnapping and beating the night of November 28 sparked the clashes, and his father, in the presence of activist Rajab. Shaikh Rashed publicly pledged to investigate the incident and to include "neutral parties" in the investigation. The next day Abdali told a press conference that the Minister had assured him he would do everything he could to bring the perpetrators to justice. Ali Salman also met with Shaikh Rashed, on December 4, and they agreed that the Ministry would hire 2,000 citizens in ¶2006. Following the meeting, Salman publicly stressed the importance of freedom of expression, but cautioned that exercising this freedom must be done in a peaceful manner only. ¶5. (U) The elected lower house of parliament, the Council of Representatives (COR),issued a statement December 3 condemning illegal demonstrations. The COR formed a committee to investigate Abdali's case, and First Vice Chairman Abdul Hadi Marhoon hosted a meeting between deputies and Abdali. Participants agreed on the importance of expediting the MOI investigation and proposed inviting Shaikh Rashed to explain the Ministry's plans. Deputies hailed Shaikh Rashed's actions in calming the atmosphere. Faisal Al Mousawi, chairman of the appointed upper house Shura Council, publicly condemned violence and sabotage carried out during the protests. -------------- Commentaries: Clashes Belong In The Past -------------- ¶6. (U) Independent daily Al Wasat reporter Reem Khalifa said in a December 11 column that some in Bahrain are trying to import the concept of sectarian division from Iraq. She praised the "Rights and Dignity" rally because it reinforced the basic rights of all citizens without discrimination. Columnist Sawsan Al Shaer, writing the same day in new Arabic daily Al Watan, asserted that "the stage of burning tires and blowing up gas cylinders is over," a reference to the violence of the 1990s. "We need an opposition that works according to the system; we need an institutionalized opposition." ¶7. (U) Al Wasat editor-in-chief Mansour Al Jamri complained in a December 3 column that "some people are trying to appoint themselves national heroes and great leaders that dare to confront the regime and call for its toppling. These people need not be given any attention." He recommended that citizens instead focus on solving vital national issues such as unemployment. Al Wasat columnist Sayed Dhiya Al Mousawi wrote December 3 that all Bahrainis, including religious scholars, must reject violence and recognize that Islam forbids harming others and their interests. "We must confront all attempts to take the country backward," he said. -------------- Ominous References to "Safawi" Threat -------------- ¶8. (U) A more ominous refrain has also appeared in public discourse in the past few weeks - references to the "Safawi" threat. Conservative Sunnis, pan-Arabists, and Baathists have used the term, the Arabic form of Safavid, the Iranian dynasty that ruled from 1501 to 1736 and that established Shia Islam as the official religion, to refer to newly empowered Shia populations in Iraq and Bahrain (or, depending on one's perspective, Iranian interference in domestic affairs). Deputy and former head of the Salafi Asala bloc in parliament Shaikh Adel Al Moawada said in his Friday prayers sermon December 3 that Bahrain's Sunni and Shia communities "must stand as one to protect Bahrain from the Safawi threat." He claimed that Bahrain had been targeted by a foreign country (Iran) that uses a small group of people in Bahrain to implement its orders and sabotage the country. Akhbar Al Khaleej columnists Hafedh Al Shaikh and Sameera Rajab, known for their pan-Arabist, Baathist views, have complained that Iraq has been the victim of an "Anglo-American, Safawi-Zionist" invasion and occupation. -------------- Small Groups Cause the Trouble -------------- ¶9. (C) Al Wifaq board member Nizar Al Qari told PolOff December 12 that those causing trouble in the clashes with police were primarily small groups of youths acting on their own. It does not take many people to cause what appears to be big trouble, he said, describing his having witnessed three young men lighting a tire on fire and, when police came to investigate, throwing stones and yelling at them. An undercurrent of the recent clashes was sentiment against foreigners in the security forces, almost entirely Sunnis from the Arab world and South Asia. Although Interior Minister Shaikh Rashed announced his intention to hire 2,000 citizens in 2006, many Shia are still upset that non-Bahrainis from the security services are being granted citizenship in recognition of their service to the country. ¶10. (C) Al Qari said that Ali Salman organized the large "Rights and Dignity" march partly to draw attention away from the small groups of troublemakers and to encourage them to join with the more moderate Shia mainstream. When Al Wifaq sponsors a rally, he said, it adheres to three principles: (1) the demonstration must have a clearly stated goal; (2) participants must conduct themselves in an orderly fashion; and (3) all participants must be known to Al Wifaq, in order to avoid embarrassment instigated by outsiders. ¶11. (C) Reacting to the violent demonstrations, Shia MP Mohammed Al Shaikh said that the Royal Court's initiatives to develop a national employment project and unemployment insurance scheme should help address the long-term problem of unemployment. He attributed the decrease in tension to the Interior Minister's meeting with Moussa Abdali and leading Shia personalities, and his pledge to boost the Ministry's employment of Bahrainis. Shaikh Mohammed Sanqoor's statement on behalf of the Shia Islamic Clergy Council urging the Committee for the Unemployed to give Al Wifaq an opportunity to achieve progress on the unemployment issue was also important. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶12. (C) In almost automatic fashion, as soon as more moderate leaders in the Shia opposition became engaged with responsible officials in the government, violent demonstrations organized by the radical fringe slowed and then stopped. While it is positive news that Al Wifaq played a constructive role in helping end the clashes and appears committed to participating in next year's parliamentary elections, both Al Wifaq and the government face daunting challenges in the coming months. Al Wifaq will be challenged by Shia activists who have chosen to remain outside the electoral process and will compete aggressively for support among disaffected youth and unemployed who are impatient with a lack of job prospects or the pace of reform. The extreme elements will argue that Al Wifaq's restrained approach allows the government to avoid dealing seriously with fundamental political and social grievances. ¶13. (C) At the same time, the government (most notably the King),which to date has done well in enticing Al Wifaq to participate in the 2006 parliamentary elections and has successfully dealt with provocative demonstrations with limited force and no arrests, will have to walk a fine line in dealing with the various pressures it faces. On the one hand, conservative Sunni elements (personified by the Prime Minister and his supporters) are becoming impatient with the demonstrations, arguing that they are jeopardizing Bahrain's attractiveness to investors and suggesting that a more forceful crackdown might be necessary. On the other hand, the King is committed to his reform process and is sensitive to potential criticism from abroad if he appears to be backtracking. Finally, there is a sectarian element at play, exacerbated by the rhetoric coming from new Iranian President Ahmadinejad and the oft-repeated fear that Iran may be directly or indirectly increasing its intervention in Bahrain's internal affairs. The King also has to worry about his neighbors, many of whom have their own Shia concerns and don't want to see Bahrain abetting any sense of Shia empowerment in the region. So, while both sides have successfully calmed the latest sectarian flare-up, they will continue to be tested in coming months. MONROE