KING'S CONFIDANT DISCUSSES LATEST DOMESTIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 001524

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM BA
SUBJECT: KING'S CONFIDANT DISCUSSES LATEST DOMESTIC
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

REF: MANAMA 1506

Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe. Reason 1.4 (b)(d)


1. (C) Summary. Close confidant of the King Hassan Fakhro,
in an October 17 conversation with the Ambassador, said that
the government fully welcomes the participation of the four
boycotting societies in the 2006 parliamentary elections.
The government expected, he added, that their participation
will change the composition of the elected chamber
considerably, undoubtedly complicating the life of Ministers
who will spend increasing amounts of time in parliament
responding to inquiries. He dismissed as totally untrue
rumors that the King was considering a postponement of
parliamentary elections. He said that the boycotting
societies seem to have accepted that there will be no changes
in the constitution before the election, but he fully
expected the new parliament to raise the issue of
constitutional amendments. He defended the appointed upper
house (Shura Council) as a necessary equivalent of a ruling
party, designed to prevent political instability. He also
predicted that the composition of the Shura will change in
time, with appointments becoming "perhaps less unilateral."
Fakhro said that he had held discussions with NDI's Fawzi
Guleid about an upcoming "dialogue meeting" NDI is organizing
End summary.


2. (C) Minister of Industry and Commerce Hassan Fakhro, a
close confidant of the King, reviewed for the Ambassador
during an October 17 discussion the latest royal family
thinking on recent political developments, including the
decision this month by boycotting opposition society Al-Wifaq
to register under the new political societies law (reftel).
Hassan said he wanted to make two points, which he said can
be viewed as official positions:

-- first, there is no question of postponing the October 2006
parliamentary elections, despite rumors that the King was
considering doing so. Fakhro confided that he was the
anonymous high-level official recently quoted on the front
page of Al-Ayam as stating rumors of a possible postponement
were not true. (Comment: This rumor first surfaced in
September, when it was suggested that the King would announce
during the opening of Parliament in early October that he
would extend the current parliamentary session by an
additional two years. He made no such announcement, but the
rumor has resurfaced from time to time. End comment.)

-- second, the government fully welcomes the participation of
the four boycotting societies in the 2006 parliamentary
elections, and is not having any second thoughts about their
participation. He said that the government realized that "it
will be no picnic" having the boycotting societies in the
parliament, as the make-up of the elected Chamber of Deputies
may be totally different. After the elections, Ministers can
expect to spend increasing amounts of time in parliament
answering questions and inquiries (with Al-Wifaq and other
boycotters inside the Council of Representatives),but this
is a reality of life in a developing democracy.


3. (C) Fakhro said that he had been in discussion with NDI
representative Fawzi Guleid about the latter's plan to
organize a "dialogue meeting" that would include members of
parliament, government officials, and political societies.
He said that he had told Guleid that the government had no
problem with this event, provided that the topics for
discussion stayed within an agreed-upon scope and did not
venture into areas more properly handled by the government or
the parliament itself, most notably amendments to the
constitution. When the Ambassador pushed back, stating that
the constitution would seem to be a reasonable subject for
discussion, Fakhro responded with a plea to give the
government some time. The constitution didn't come out of
the blue, he said. It was the result of deadlock and
compromise. Since there is no ruling party in Bahrain, the
King devised a formula whereby the elected parliament could
not vote down the government regularly, and the government
wouldn't feel the need to dissolve the parliament.


4. (C) The King, Fakhro stated, had been working on this
concept for three decades, since the last parliament was
dissolved while he was Crown Prince. By establishing an
appointed Shura Council as an upper house, the government
resolved the problem of no ruling party to protect the
government's interests. The Shah of Iran had gone a
different route, he noted, by trying to form a ruling party,
"and we all know what happened there." Bahrain needs more
time to let its parliamentary institutions develop, he
repeated.


5. (C) On the issue of amending the Constitution, Fakhro said
that opposition boycotters now seem to have accepted that
there will be no changes to the constitution before the 2006
elections. After the election, however, he expected the
issue to be addressed by the new Parliament, which will
feature a much stronger opposition. When the Ambassador
commented that any constitutional initiatives could easily be
blocked by the appointed Shura, Fakhro replied that he
expected in time for there to be some evolution in the
composition of the Shura, with the selection of Shura members
becoming "perhaps less unilateral."


6. (C) Asked what issues might be discussed at the proposed
NDI dialogue meeting, Fakhro focused primarily on parliament
and its evolving role. He cited the budget as a notable
parliamentary achievement where the parliamentarians have
played an increasingly important role. And he noted the
accelerated use by parliament of "desired resolutions"
("iqtirah raghbah," which are somewhat akin to "sense of the
Congress" resolutions). Fakhro said that this mechanism is
increasingly and successfully being used by elected
parliamentarians to, for example, get government approval for
funding of projects. He said that at the previous day's
Cabinet meeting, a dozen such proposals were considered, and
most were approved.
MONROE