SHIA OPPOSITION SOCIETY AL WIFAQ MOVING TOWARD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 001347

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KISL BA
SUBJECT: SHIA OPPOSITION SOCIETY AL WIFAQ MOVING TOWARD
REGISTRATION, ELECTION PARTICIPATION

REF: A. MANAMA 1091


B. MANAMA 111

Classified by Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) The Political Societies Law passed in July requires
all political societies to register with the Ministry of
Justice by November 2. The question of registration has
created controversy within the membership ranks of leading
Shia opposition society Al Wifaq, though contacts say that
the leadership, in particular President Ali Salman, supports
registering. Board member Nizar Al Qari said that a series
of town hall meetings leading up to general assembly meetings
on September 22 and October 6 should pave the way for a
decision to register. Hard-core oppositionists Vice
President Hassan Mushaima and spokesman Abdul Jalil Singace
resigned from the society September 17 to protest the move to
register. Discussion of registration has led naturally to
the question of participation in the October 2006
parliamentary elections, with leading Shias both inside and
outside the organization speaking publicly on the need for Al
Wifaq to participate to protect their community's interests.
End Summary.

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Al Wifaq on the Defensive
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2. (C) The July Political Societies Law has put leading Shia
opposition society Al Wifaq on the defensive, forcing it to
take the positive act of registering with the government just
to maintain its status quo position. The law requires
political societies to register with the Ministry of Justice
(MOJ) by November 2 (Ref A). Societies that do not register
with MOJ can continue to operate under the jurisdiction of
the Ministry of Social Affairs, per the 1989 Societies Law,
but, as Minister of Social Affairs Fatima Al Belooshi
publicly warned September 8, they would not be able to
conduct political activities.


3. (C) Passage of the new law led to a round of intense
criticism of the government and the upper and lower houses of
parliament, the (appointed) Shura Council and the (elected)
Council of Representatives, by oppositionists. Senior Shia
cleric Shaikh Issa Qassem condemned the law during a Friday
sermon in late July, and Al Wifaq President Shaikh Ali Salman
pledged to abide by Qassem's opinion, saying he was "a sword
in Qassem's hands." Al Wifaq board member Nizar Al Qari told
Pol/Econ chief that Qassem and Salman's opposition to the
law, while genuine, did not mean that they ruled out
registering with MOJ. Al Qari said there was enough
ambiguity in their statements to support registration,
particularly if such a move were couched in terms of
continuing to fight the law, but from within the system.

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Outreach to Membership to Support Registration
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4. (C) Al Qari said Al Wifaq is conducting a series of town
hall meetings with its members to discuss the question of
registration, leading up to two general assembly meetings,
the first on September 22 and the second on October 6. Al
Qari speaks in favor of registration at the public sessions,
carrying out Salman's strategy of calming people down and
getting them to come around to accepting the law. He said
that informal surveys indicate some 80 percent of Al Wifaq
members support registration following the town hall
meetings. The pro-registration leadership intends to use the
general assemblies to generate a mandate in favor of a
decision to register. In September 18 press reports,
credible sources say that the Al Wifaq board has decided to
submit a formal recommendation in favor of registration to
the September 22 general assembly. In his September 16
sermon, Qassem said that registering under the Political
Societies Law represents a necessary legal step that will
give Al Wifaq the freedom to challenge other laws it opposes.


5. (C) Al Wifaq is an umbrella organization that unites many
political and (Shia) religious trends under the common cause
of opposition to the government. The question of
registration, however, is causing splits. Vice President
Hassan Mushaima and spokesman Abdul Jalil Singace resigned
from the society September 16 to protest the move to
register. The board did not act upon their resignations and
asked them to reconsider. Mushaima and Singace have spoken
publicly about forming a council that would act as a pressure
group on the government. (Note: As an unregistered entity,
such a council would be vulnerable to a legal challenge by
the government.) Al Qari told us earlier that he would
welcome the departure of hard-line dissenters from Al Wifaq,
calling them a "headache." Nizar Al Baharna, a founding
member of Al Wifaq who left the organization in late 2004 and
formed his own association, the moderate Justice and
Development Society, said publicly that he might dissolve his
group so he and the other members could rejoin Al Wifaq now
that the "moderate trend in Al Wifaq is on the rise and the
society is headed towards participation in parliamentary
elections."

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Alternatives to Registration All Bad
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6. (C) Al Wifaq members who oppose registration under the
new law face stark alternatives. Their choices are:

a. Dissolving Al Wifaq so it does not exist in any form;
b. Maintaining its status under the 1989 Societies Law and
ceasing any political activities;
c. Continue operating in defiance of the government in an
illegal manner;
d. Forming a new society (which would face the same question
about registration); or
e. Declaring the formation of a political party (which
remains illegal in Bahrain).

Likely in response to this internal debate, Shaikh Issa
Qassem said in his Friday sermon on September 9 that he
objected to the idea of dissolving Al Wifaq, thus providing
pro-registration members with cover for their advocacy
efforts. Al Qari told us earlier that Qassem enjoys his
position as spiritual advisor to Al Wifaq and would not allow
the society to go underground.

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From Registration to Participation
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7. (C) The issue of registration has led naturally to a
discussion of participation in the October 2006 parliamentary
elections. Prominent Al Wifaq members Jalal and Jawad
Fairooz, Murtadha Bader, Ibrahim Hussein, and Abbas Mahfoodh
September 4 publicly announced their support for registration
and participation in the parliamentary elections. Referring
to Qassem's September 9 sermon, Bader said that when Qassem
spoke of Al Wifaq heading toward a "new political stage," he
meant participation in the elections. Al Wifaq participated
in the 2002 municipal council elections and has already
announced that it will do so again in May 2006. Ali Salman
has said publicly that Al Wifaq will announce its candidates
list for municipal council elections before the end of 2005.


8. (C) In previous discussions, Al Qari has strongly implied
that Al Wifaq is leaning toward participation in the
elections, but it seeks some gesture from the King as cover
to demonstrate for its members that the boycott produced
results. Shura Council member and president of the Gulf
Academy for Democratic Development Mansour Al Arayedh and
parliamentarian Mohammed Al Shaikh, both Shia, separately
told Pol/Econ chief that they expect Al Wifaq to participate
in the parliamentary elections with or without a government
concession. Al Shaikh commented that Al Wifaq recognizes it
is weaker because of its boycott, which resulted in the
organization removing itself from the playing field. Al
Arayedh spoke of a long-term struggle between Bahrain's Shia
majority and Sunni power elite, saying the next logical stage
for the fight is inside parliament.

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Criticism of Boycott
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9. (C) Influential Shias outside Al Wifaq continue to
advocate participation in the elections. Mansour Al Jamri,
editor-in-chief of the independent Arabic daily Al Wasat, and
widely-read Al Wasat columnist Sayed Dhia Al Mousawi continue
their campaign supporting full participation in the
elections, which they launched with great fanfare in early
January (Ref B). In his September 17 column, Al Jamri says
that Al Wifaq should finalize its decision on registration
and enter the political process. Al Mousawi, who attended
the Ambassador's September 11 commemoration event and visited
the U.S. on an IV program during the summer, addressed the
elections in his September 6 column. He asks those who
oppose registration what they have achieved by boycotting
parliament. He points out that they were unable to stop any
of the laws that parliament passed, and stresses that
critical national issues need to be debated inside
parliament, not on the outside. He lists the names of Arab
scholars and intellectuals who consider the boycott to be a
mistake, and adds that there are many political groups in
other Arab countries that had boycotted elections at one time
but which had reconsidered their positions and now
participate.

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Comment
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10. (C) The controversy within Al Wifaq on registering under
the Political Societies Law is likely a preview of the type
of battle that could erupt as the parliamentary elections
grow closer, but with even higher stakes due to the more
difficult question of participating in the elections. In
some ways, the prospect of shedding some of the most
hard-core oppositionists during this go-around could actually
make a decision to participate in the elections easier for Al
Wifaq. President Ali Salman is a savvy politician who keeps
his cards close to his chest. His guiding of the process
toward registration has been adept so far; it is in Bahrain's
larger national interest that he be equally skilled in moving
toward elections.

MONROE