THE PERUVIAN ELECTION CAMPAIGN BASELINE: HUMALA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 06 LIMA 005332

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2015
TAGS: PGOV ETRD SNAR PREL PE
SUBJECT: THE PERUVIAN ELECTION CAMPAIGN BASELINE: HUMALA
SURGING FORWARD BUT THERE IS STILL A LONG WAY TO GO

REF: A. LIMA 5291


B. LIMA 5192

C. LIMA 5061

D. LIMA 4854

E. LIMA 4132

Classified By: Political Counselor Alexander Margulies. Reason: 1.4(d)
.

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) The Peruvian presidential race currently has four
major contenders: Lourdes Flores of the Unidad Nacional
alliance; ultra-nationalist Ollanta Humala, who has yet to
register his Peruvian Nationalist Party; former President
Alan Garcia of the APRA party; and former Interim President
Valentin Paniagua of the Center Front alliance. Former
President Alberto Fujimori's candidacy remains in doubt, but
if it is approved by the National Electoral Board that would
add him to the mix. While the emergence of a new "outsider"
candidate cannot be completely discounted, this looks
increasingly unlikely. The race remains wide open as, with
serious campaigning yet to begin, none of the major
candidates registers more than 25 percent in the most recent
poll. Ultra-nationalist Ollanta Humala's surge into second
place is worrisome, as are reports that the Peruvian business
elite has begun contributing to his campaign, but whether
Humala can sustain this momentum remains an open question.
The congressional race is equally fractured, with no/no party
or alliance registering even 20 percent preference in the
polls. END SUMMARY.

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THE LATEST POLL
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2. (U) A poll taken by the Apoyo consultancy on December 3
and 8, in 15 urban areas across Peru ranked voters preference
for presidential contenders as follows:

Lourdes Flores 25 percent
Ollanta Humala 22 percent
Alan Garcia 16 percent
Valentin Paniagua 14 percent
Jaime Salinas 4 percent
David Waisman 2 percent
Jaime Yoshiyama 2 percent
Alberto Borea 1 percent
Natale Amprimo 1 percent
Javier Diez Canseco 1 percent
Fernando Olivera 1 percent
None/Blank/Invalidated 9 percent
No Answer 2 percent


3. (U) Fujimori was not included in the list of potential
candidates, but his support, and its effect on the support
for other candidates, is reflected in the answers to the
poll's question as to which politician voters sympathize with
most:

Lourdes Flores 19 percent
Ollanta Humala 18 percent
Alberto Fujimori 15 percent
Valentin Paniagua 14 percent
Alan Garcia 13 percent
Jaime Salinas 4 percent
David Waisman 2 percent
Javier Diez Canseco 2 percent
Others 4 percent
None 8 percent
No Answer 1 percent


4. (U) With respect to the legislative race, those polled
stated they would vote as follows (our calculation of the
approximate proportional number of congressional seats each
party would take are in brackets, given that a party must
obtain at least four percent of the national vote to win a
seat in Congress):

APRA 19 percent (36 seats)
Unidad Nacional 17 percent (32 seats)
Peruvian Nationalist Party 12 percent (22 seats)
Center Front 8 percent (15 seats)
Pro-Fujimori Parties 8 percent (15 seats)
Others 11 percent
Blank/Invalidated 12 percent
No Answer 13 percent

5. (SBU) COMMENT: The Apoyo poll differs markedly from a
national poll taken by the University of Lima on December
3-4, which gave Flores 25.6 percent, followed by Garcia at
16.2 percent, Humala at 14.6 percent, and Paniagua with eight
percent. We have more confidence in the Apoyo poll, as that
consultancy is the only polling organization that has
permanent employees in the provinces (the others contract
university students to do their polling),regularly conducts
national surveys, and is the most professional with respect
to training personnel, equipment and methodology. The
University of Lima and other major polling organizations
(IMA, IMASEN, CPI, IDICE, DATUM) generally confine their
activities to the Lima/Callao metropolitan area. In
addition, some of the polling companies reportedly have ties
to political parties (IMA with Peru Posible, IDICE with APRA,
IMASEN with Somos Peru),which raises questions as to their
objectivity. We also note that INR uses Apoyo to conduct its
surveys in Peru. END COMMENT.

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WHAT DO THE POLL RESULTS MEAN?
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6. (U) The poll results provide a snapshot of preferences
as of early December, but should not/not be considered as
indicative of what the final vote tallies will look like come
election day on April 9. For starters, of those polled only
46 percent said that they have definitively decided how they
will vote. Secondly, the electoral campaign is just
beginning, and will not/not really kick into high gear until
January. Our assessments of where the individual candidates
and their respective alliances/parties currently stand
follows. It is worth noting that all candidates recognize
that no/no one is likely to win an outright majority, and
that gaining 25-30 percent of the vote in April should be
enough to earn a place in the May 7 run-off elections between
the two top finishers. Hence, the candidates' focus is on
obtaining that 25-30 percent.

LOURDES FLORES - UNIDAD NACIONAL ALLIANCE
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7. (U) Lourdes Flores has been leading the presidential
polls since early this year. While her numbers have fallen
slightly to 25 percent in the December poll, from 27 percent
in October and 28 percent in November, this may just be a
statistical aberration, as this result remains within the
poll's claimed margin of error of 2.5 percent. If her
support has indeed fallen slightly, this is probably due to
the normal wear and tear on a front-runner. Some observers
posit, however, that this constitutes evidence that erstwhile
Fujimori sympathizers who had latched on to Flores are now
shifting to Humala.


8. (U) Flores has been campaigning furiously since early
this year in a successful effort to pre-empt other rivals
from the center-right. She maneuvered to win the Presidency
of the Popular Christian Party (PPC),the largest member of
the Unidad Nacional (UN) alliance, and used her control of
the PPC machinery to deep-six exploratory efforts by
Congressman (and former PPC President) Antero Flores-Araoz to
launch his own candidacy. The other major threat within the
center-right was posed by popular Lima Mayor Luis Castaneda,
but this never materialized as Castaneda chose not/not to
seek the presidency this year. There were concerns that
Castaneda's National Solidarity party would leave the UN
alliance and run its own slate of congressional candidates,
but in late November he chose to hop on the Flores bandwagon.
The only other center-right candidate figuring in the polls
is Jaime Salinas of the National Justice party.


9. (U) The priority for the Flores campaign is to broaden
her appeal beyond the traditional center-right sector based
in Lima. She is making a tremendous effort to change her
image as a representative of the traditional elite that is
distanced from the common folk, making frequent campaign
trips to the provinces, spending much of her time in Lima
shaking hands at community events in the shanty-towns
surrounding the capital, and stressing support for health,
education and social justice in her speeches and public
statements. The Apoyo poll indicates that her travels are
bearing fruit, as her support in the central highlands (36
percent) now exceeds her backing in Lima itself (30 percent).


10. (C) COMMENT: Flores' prospects for reaching the second
round are relatively bright at the moment. Jaime Salinas is
her only rival left within the center right, and Salinas
himself recognizes that his chances of supplanting her are
minimal; he recently complained to the Ambassador that his
fundraising efforts are being rebuffed by business leaders
who advise him to wait his turn as 2006 is Flores'
opportunity. It is possible that a Fujimori candidacy would
siphon off some of her supporters, but it is increasingly
unlikely that Fujimori will be permitted to run. While
Flores, as the front-runner, had been catching considerable
flack from rival parties, particularly APRA, Humala's surge
in the polls has transferred the political class' and media's
attention to him, giving her a useful respite. END COMMENT.

OLLANTA HUMALA - PERUVIAN NATIONALIST PARTY
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11. (U) Ollanta Humala may actually be leading the
presidential race at present. The Apoyo poll, while national
in scope, is taken in urban areas. The anecdotal evidence
that we have received indicates that support for Humala is
much greater in rural areas, particularly in his stronghold
of the southern highlands (39 percent in the poll) and
southern coast (31 percent). Over the past month Humala's
support has doubled nationally and tripled in Lima (from five
to 15 percent). This gain appears to be due in large part to
a shift in the preferences of Fujimori supporters who, with
their favorite candidate incommunicado and apparently out of
the running in his Chilean prison cell, have fastened on
Humala as the leading anti-system candidate. His campaign
reportedly is now receiving significant funding from Peru's
commercial elite, with anti-Free Trade Agreement businessmen
(domestic manufacturers, pharmaceuticals, non-export
agriculture) seeing him as their champion, and FTA-proponents
viewing a contribution as an insurance policy to protect
their interests should Humala win. The political class'
recent criticism of Humala may actually bolster his support,
as Humala's popular appeal is greatest among those who reject
established politicians and favor candidates who want to
clean house.


12. (U) After initially flirting with the far-left, Humala
seems to have recognized that the traditional Marxists wanted
to use him as a vehicle to advance their own electoral
ambitions; that a formal association with them would limit
his appeal; and that his own growing popularity obviated his
need for the far-left's organizational apparatus. As a
result, Humala conditioned any alliance on the Marxists
assuming a subservient posture, ceding to him control over
the presidential and congressional tickets, a role they
rejected, characterizing him as "authoritarian."


12. (U) It remains unclear what vehicle Humala will use to
run for the highest office. His Peruvian Nationalist Party
(PNP) has filed to register with the National Electoral Board
(JNE),but the latter has raised several objections, none of
which should be difficult for the PNP to surmount. The
principle objection is that, while the JNE has found that the
PNP has presented the required 128,293 signatures to register
a new party, it has determined that the PNP has only formed
44 of the 65 provincial committees (of at least 50 members
each) required under the Political Party law. Other
objections relate to the party's symbol, which is similar to
another party's previously registered symbol, to some party
officials being listed as members of other parties, and to
conflicting provisions in the party's statute. The PNP
should have sufficient time to rectify these shortcomings by
the January 9 deadline for registering presidential
candidates. Should the PNP fail to overcome the JNE's
objections, the Union for Peru Party (UPP) is offering to
merge with the PNP and nominate Humala on the UPP ticket,
with UPP leader Congressman Michel Martinez taking the First
Vice President slot.


13. (C) COMMENT: It remains an open question whether
Humala will be able to sustain the momentum that currently
would have him gain a spot in the presidential run-off. The
reports that the business elite is pouring money into his
coffers is worrisome, as this would facilitate Humala's
efforts to keep his campaign energized. He has thus far
avoided identifying himself with detailed policies, instead
cultivating a vague image as an honest, courageous and
nationalistic outsider, committed to social justice and
cleaning out the corrupt politicians, while distancing
himself from his father's Ethnocacerista Movement and his
brother Antauro's armed uprising in Andahuaylas (Ref B-E).
When offered the chance to explain his policies at the recent
CADE business association meeting, Humala declined,
ostensibly because he was scheduled to speak with the
political "minnows" rather than receive a prime time spot
like Flores, Garcia and Paniagua. As the campaign proceeds,
he should come under increasing scrutiny by the media and
voters, which could detract from his appeal. This process
will be promoted by a USD one million USAID-funded election
transparency program, run by the National Democratic
Institute and the local NGO Transparencia, that starting in
January will promote debates between candidates and publicize
their views on key specific issues. There is also the
possibility that the Fujimoristas can regroup from their
current malaise and mount a strong campaign, with Fujimori or
an alternate, thereby regaining some of their supporters who
have migrated to Humala. It is also possible that Humala has
made his advance too soon. When Fujimori mounted his charge
in 1990, he did so in the final month of the campaign.
Humala still has four months to go, and may well turn out to
be a sprinter who used up his energy on the first turn, only
to fade in the home stretch. END COMMENT.

ALAN GARCIA - APRA
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14. (U) Garcia is in a relatively comfortable position, in
third place, within ten points of the leader, with almost
four months of campaigning to go. Given that he is
universally regarded as a phenomenon on the hustings, and
that his party has the country's best organized political
machine, he can be expected to build up his support as the
campaign moves forward and be in a position to supplant
Flores or Humala should either begin to falter.


15. (C) APRA co-Secretary General (and Congressman)
Mauricio Mulder recently told Poloffs that APRA's analysis is
that Flores topped out in November with as much support as a
center-right candidate can achieve, and will likely see her
poll numbers fall; that Humala and Fujimori will divide the
30 percent anti-system vote; that Paniagua will not mount
much of a threat; and that APRA will achieve its traditional
25-33 percent support, which will be enough to reach the
second round. On the campaign trail, Mulder added, Garcia
will rally the faithful, while also reaching out to both the
left and the right to top up his numbers.


16. (U) Garcia has indeed been following this script. In
speaking to CADE, the APRA leader welcomed foreign
investment, supported Peru's integration in to the world
economy, reassured domestic businessmen that his government
would promote an aggressive industrial policy, vowed to
increase government efficiency, and proposed a multi-million
dollar program to increase agricultural exports from the
Altiplano and jungle. When addressing APRA and provincial
audiences, however, Garcia has stressed more populist themes
such as cutting top bureaucrats' salaries in half, criticized
Flores as representing the "extreme right-wing of an absolute
free economy," while damning Humala for pushing "a primitive
form of nationalism without rational proposals." Garcia has
also attacked the GOP's initiative to ratify the Law of the
Sea Convention and is opposing congressional consideration of
the U.S.-Peru Free Trade Agreement until after the elections.
Both of these positions appear linked to concern that Humala
would gain political ground attacking these initiatives on
nationalist grounds.

VALENTIN PANIAGUA - CENTER FRONT
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17. (U) Former Interim President Valentin Paniagua is a
grandfatherly figure, widely liked and respected, but not the
type to inspire enthusiasm. His relative absence from the
public spotlight over the past year led to widespread
speculation that he does not have the inner drive to mount a
strong campaign. As a result his support had gradually
deteriorated in the polls, from 18 percent in August to 14
percent today. Paniagua's Accion Popular party has linked up
with former Lima Mayor Alberto Andrade's Somos Peru party and
economist Drago Kisic's National Coordinator of Independents
party to form the Center Front alliance, which espouses
rather woolly center-left policies on "integrated
decentralized development," combating corruption, judicial
reform, increased education spending and a new Constitution.


18. (U) COMMENT: A key test of Paniagua's drawing power
and of the Center Front's organizational abilities will come
on December 16, when the alliance is holding a rally in
Paniagua's home city of Cuzco to kick off its campaign.
Humala filled the central plaza there a few weeks ago, and
Paniagua needs to show that he can better this in his own
backyard if he is to generate momentum. The Center Front's
chances could be damaged by competing center-left candidates
such as former Women's Affairs Minister Susana Villaran and
Peru's former Ambassador to the OAS Alberto Borea. Villaran
had problems registering her Social Democratic Party, which
weakened her hand in negotiating for a place with the Center
Front. In the end she linked up with Lambayeque Regional
President Yehude Simon, whose Peruvian Humanist Movement quit
the Central Front in a huff after Andrade and Kisic derided
it as a minor partner in the alliance. END COMMENT.

ALBERTO FUJIMORI - ALLIANCE FOR THE FUTURE/SI CUMPLE
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19. (C) The Apoyo poll shows that former President Alberto
Fujimori maintains a strong base of support, perhaps as high
as a quarter of the voting population given his popularity in
rural areas. Whether this will translate into votes next
April for a Fujimorista presidential ticket and congressional
list depends on a lot of "ifs." Will Fujimori be released
from jail? Will he be able to stand as a candidate? Will an
attractive replacement be found if he cannot stand? Will the
congressional list draw support? Will the Fujimorista
parties get their act together and mount an effective
campaign? Currently, the Fujimoristas have two electoral
vehicles: the Alliance for the Future (AF - made up of the
Cambio 90 and Nueva Mayoria parties) and the Si Cumple ("He
Delivers") party. Their strategy is to have Si Cumple
nominate Fujimori for President, while AF nominates a back-up
list. If Fujimori is disqualified by the National Electoral
Board based on a congressional resolution banning him from
holding public office until 2011, as seems likely, then the
AF presidential ticket will go forward. If Fujimori is
permitted to run, then the AF ticket will be withdrawn.
(NOTE: SEPTEL will go into greater detail on the
Fujimoristas' strategy and tactics. END NOTE).

POSSIBLE OUTSIDERS
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20. (SBU) There are no "outsiders" that currently look like
mounting a serious challenge to the major candidates. Jaime
Salinas has slightly increased his support from three to four
percent in the latest poll, but his candidacy does not appear
to be gaining any meaningful momentum; his hiring of noted
American political consultant Dick Morris gained plenty of
publicity for the latter, but dismissive treatment for
Salinas' candidacy. President Alejandro Toledo's Peru
Posible party has been engaged in a comedy of errors: Toledo
tried, but failed to convince former Foreign Minister Manuel
Rodriguez to stand; Vice President David Waisman withdrew his
name on health grounds; Toledo then hand-picked an unknown
health food entrepreneur, Jeannette Enmanuel, but she quit
the race after five days claiming telephone threats unnerved
her family (though some pundits suggest she did not want her
business interests closely scrutinized); and in the end the
party's nomination was offered and accepted by Rafael
Belaunde, son of former President Fernando Belaunde, and a
notorious political loose cannon who previously heartily
criticized the Toledo Administration. The other pro-GOP
party, the Independent Moralizing Front, is marginalized, and
its likely candidate, Fernando Olivera, is probably the most
unpopular politician in the country right now.
Center-leftists Susana Villaran and Alberto Borea may take
votes away from Paniagua, but are unlikely to do much more
than that. Congressman Javier Diez Canseco should split the
minimal far-left vote with the Marxist New Leftist Movement's
Alberto Moreno.

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COMMENT
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21. (SBU) While it remains early in the electoral season,
the specter of Humala reaching the second round has to be
taken seriously at this stage. His surging popularity is
attracting increased media attention, and also seems to be
drawing in substantial financial support. An Evo Morales
victory in the upcoming Bolivian elections would give Humala
an additional boost, demonstrating that an anti-system,
pro-coca nationalist can gain the presidency of an Andean
country. The Apoyo poll indicates that should Humala reach
the run-off stage he would lose against Flores (50-35
percent) and Paniagua (48-36),but beat Garcia (44-31). Even
if he does not win the presidency, however, Humala, unless he
falters badly over the next four months, should emerge as a
powerful disruptive political force in command of a sizable
congressional bloc, the role that Evo Morales has played to
such destructive results in recent years. This does not bode
well for our interests in strengthening democratic
institutions, promoting economic development and combating
drugs. The Humala threat may well lead to a lengthy
postponement in legislative consideration of the U.S.-Peru
Free Trade Agreement, as APRA, the major opposition party, is
reluctant to move this forward during the campaign season out
of concern that Humala would obtain electoral advantages by
attacking it on nationalistic and populist grounds. END
COMMENT.
STRUBLE