OLLANTA HUMALA DRAWS FIRE FROM THE POLITICAL CLASS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LIMA 005192 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2015 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL SNAR PE SUBJECT: OLLANTA HUMALA DRAWS FIRE FROM THE POLITICAL CLASS FOLLOWING HIS RISE IN POLLS REF: A. LIMA 5061 ¶B. LIMA 4854 ¶C. LIMA 4132 ¶D. LIMA 4698 03 Classified By: Political Counselor Alexander H. Margulies. Reason: 1. 4(d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (U) Ultra-nationalist presidential candidate Ollanta Humala's recent rise in the polls has galvanized the political class, kicking its immune response system into action against this anti-systemic threat. Ollanta has found himself under attack for having received approximately USD 250,000 in salary and benefits while serving as a Defense Attache; termed an extremist and a tool of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez; watched some of his populist issues -- particularly his opposition to the Law of the Sea treaty -- pilfered by APRA's Alan Garcia; criticized for not having a plan of government; snubbed by the far-leftist parties who once flirted with him; and has even seen his imprisoned brother Antauro emerge as a rival candidate. End Summary. -------------- Humala's Sudden Surge in the Polls -------------- ¶2. (U) The threat posed by Ollanta Humala, while long-recognized by the traditional political class, did not/not galvanize the latter into action until this past week, when two polls indicated that he had vaulted from a distant fourth in the presidential sweepstakes to either second or third place. A University of Lima poll taken in the Lima/Callao metropolitan area was published on 11/26, indicating that he was in third place with 12.9 percent of the potential vote. A national poll by the CPI consultancy, released on 11/28, put Ollanta in second place with 15 percent support. While the accuracy of both polls is open to question (Septel will look at polling organizations in Peru), their effect on politicians and media commentators was electric, sparking a reaction akin to the human immune system's response to an infection. -------------- The Political Class Strikes Back -------------- ¶3. (C) The reactions by the political class and media have taken the following forms: -- Ollanta Is No Poor Boy. APRA legislator Cesar Zumaeta, on 11/28, denounced Humala for receiving over a quarter-million USD in salary and travel/moving benefits in connection with Ollanta's service as Peruvian Military Attache in Paris and South Korea during 2003-2004. Media commentators followed up by highlighting the contradiction between Ollanta having received extravagant remuneration from the State while at the same time criticizing GOP officials and congressmen for their high salaries and portraying himself as a humble "candidate of the poor." -- Ollanta Is a Tool of Chavez. Articles in the dailies "La Razon" and "Correo" cited reports from Bolivia claiming that Ollanta recently flew to Caracas, via Chile, to ask for help from Hugo Chavez. The articles implied that Ollanta is a Chavez' tool, being used to pull Peru into a "Bolivarian" alliance with Argentina, Bolivia and Venezuela. (COMMENT: "La Razon," the most pro-Fujimori media organization, previously took the lead in publicizing Ollanta's actions and candidacy. Anti-Fujimoristas speculated that "La Razon," was raising the spectre of a Humala threat in the hope that fear of Humala would lead the business class to conclude that only Fujimori could stop him. The latest polls, however, indicate that Ollanta is taking potential votes away from the Fujimorista parties, which could explain "La Razon's" sudden anti-Ollanta slant. END COMMENT). -- Ethnocacerism is Racist/Extremist. Journalists have begun to question whether Ollanta is really any different from his more brother Antauro, who currently is in prison facing trial for leading the January 2005 armed uprising in Andahuaylas. This speculation has grown in the wake of press interviews done with Ollanta's and Antauro's father, Isaac, and their older brother, Ulises, in which both insisted that Ollanta and Antauro are one in the same. The press has only begun to mine the Ethnocacerista movement's basic ideological work, "Millenarianism, Nationalism and Ethnocacerism," for quotes as to the principles of the movement. The book is indeed a rich source of weird millenarian ideas and racist speculations. It asserts, for example, that Peru's "cobrizos" (darker-skinned inhabitants) are a global "master race" for their racial variety (Ref D). In a range of recent newspapers, Antonio Querol, a prominent Peruvian psychoanalyst, has compared Ollanta Humala to Adolf Hitler. -- Brother Antauro Remains a Loose Cannon. While Ollanta has tried to distance himself from his jailed brother, Antauro is the presidential "pre-candidate" of the Avanza Pais (Move Foward Country) party, which was founded by veterans of the Marxist movement led by former Lima Mayor Alfonso Barrantes. Antauro's candidacy can be expected to take votes away from Ollanta. -- The Family Factor. Just as President Toledo has often found his family to be a liability, Ollanta Humala may face the same. Lima daily "La Republica" recently ran (12/4) an expose entitled, "What Ollanta Has to Hide," that suggested that both Ollanta and his family have far less affinity for traditional Peru than they claim. Ollanta Humala has seven brothers and sisters. Of the eight children, all but one (Ollanta) were educated in Lima's French school. Of the five children who are married, three have wed foreigners, two to French citizens and one to a Russian, none of whom come close to fitting the definition of a "cobrizo." -- Others Stealing Ollanta's Thunder. APRA candidate Alan Garcia, responding to Ollanta's surge in the polls, has appropriated some of the latter's populist and nationalist issues. Over the past week Garcia has proposed a reduction in government salaries (including that of the President), commented that had he been President in 2002 he would have exercised his constitutional prerogative to dissolve Congress and call new elections, and announced the commencement of a "National Crusade" in opposition to Peru ratifying the Law of the Sea Convention. Meanwhile, former Interim President Valentin Paniagua, who likely will run as the presidential nominee of the Central Front alliance, used his presentation at the CADE business leaders meeting on 12/2 to call for a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution, claiming ownership over an initiative previously advanced by Humala. On 12/3 an aggrieved Ollanta complained to the press that Garcia and Paniagua were imitating him. -- The Left Has Largely Left Ollanta. The members of the Broad Front, an alliance of Peru's far-left parties, seem to have given up on their efforts to cement an alliance with Ollanta (Refs B-C). Instead, they have announced plans to nominate Juan Jose Gorritti, Secretary General of the Confederation of Peruvian Workers (CGTP),the country's largest labor federation, as their presidential candidate. Broad Front officials complained that Ollanta's "arrogance," his insistence on controlling candidacies, and his flirting with ex-Fujimori supporters had led to the rupture. Union por el Peru (Union for Peru - UPP) is the only leftist party to have endorse Ollanta. Led by radical pro-coca Apurimac Congressman Michel Martinez (UPP founder Javier Perez de Cuellar no longer has any connection with the party, a fact that he emphasized in a 12/5 interview given from his residence in Paris),UPP will hold an extraordinary national congress on 12/17 to formalize its alliance with Ollanta, reportedly in exchange for Martinez obtaining the Second Vice Presidential nomination on the joint ticket. -- Ollanta as a Tool of Fujimori. Jaime Salinas, presidential candidate of the small center-right Justicia Nacional (National Justice) party has been the most vocal of several political figures and media commentators who have publicly questioned the timing of the Humala Brothers' 2000 rebellion against then-President Alberto Fujimori, noting that this coincided with Vladimiro Montesinos' simultaneous escape from the country. Fernando Olivera, leader of the pro-GOP Independent Moralizing Front, in a recent meeting with the Ambassador, echoed this concern, adding that he was attempting to uncover evidence of telephone contacts between Ollanta and Montesinos. -------------- Comment: Immune Response -------------- ¶4. (C) Ollanta's popularity as a presidential candidate is based in large part on his image as a fresh, anti-system candidate, vaguely positioning himself as a proponent of nationalism and social justice. He has avoided specifics, even rejecting an invitation to speak to the CADE business executives meeting (on the grounds that CADE proposed scheduling him with minor candidates like Salinas, rather than with the majors like Lourdes Flores, Alan Garcia and Valentin Paniagua). So long as the polls indicated that he was a marginal candidate the political class and media commentators treated him more as a folkloric figure than as a serious threat. The recent polls pointing to a pro-Ollanta surge, however, immediately kicked-in the establishment's immune system, and Ollanta can expect to be placed under a microscope and hit hard from a variety of angles for the remainder of the campaign. END COMMENT. STRUBLE