FAR LEFT, INSPIRED BY CHAVEZ, SEEKING TO RIDE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LIMA 004132 SIPDIS WHA FOR JMONSERRATE, BFRIEDMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PE SUBJECT: FAR LEFT, INSPIRED BY CHAVEZ, SEEKING TO RIDE OLLANTA HUMALA'S COAT-TAILS INTO CO... id: 41148 date: 9/22/2005 19:23 refid: 05LIMA4132 origin: Embassy Lima classification: CONFIDENTIAL destination: 05LIMA3379|05LIMA3784|05LIMA424|05LIMA4968|05LIMA93 header: This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available. -------------- header ends -------------- C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LIMA 004132 SIPDIS WHA FOR JMONSERRATE, BFRIEDMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PE SUBJECT: FAR LEFT, INSPIRED BY CHAVEZ, SEEKING TO RIDE OLLANTA HUMALA'S COAT-TAILS INTO CONGRESS REF: A. LIMA 3784 ¶B. LIMA 3379 ¶C. LIMA 424 ¶D. LIMA 93 ¶E. LIMA 4968 (03) Classified By: Political Counselor Alexander Margulies. Reason: 1.4 ( b,d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Most of Peru,s far-left Marxist parties, movements, and labor organizations are attempting to unite forces for the 2006 general elections under the banner of a "Frente Amplio" (Broad Front). They hope their standard bearer will be Ollanta Humala, leader of the fascistic Nationalist Peruvian Party and brother of Antauro Humala, who led the abortive January 2005 armed uprising in Andahuaylas. Ollanta Humala, however, is insisting that the left sign up with his own "National Front for the Salvation of the Republic." Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is reportedly conditioning the provision of funds to the leftist Frente on its making common cause with Ollanta Humala. Frente Amplio elements believe they can obtain 10-15 percent of the popular vote and a sizable congressional bloc with Humala at the top of their ticket, an estimate with which we concur. End Summary. -------------- FRENTE AMPLIO'S OBJECTIVES -------------- ¶2. (C) Peru,s far-left Marxists, divided many times over since the Sino-Soviet split of 1965 and the break-off of Sendero Luminoso in the early 1980s, are now trying to overcome their marginal political status by creating the Frente Amplio, a grouping that includes the Communist Party Red Fatherland (CP-PR),the Teachers Union (SUTEP),and the General Central of Peruvian Workers (CGTP),the country,s largest union federation. Poloff interviewed SUTEP International Relations Secretary (and former SUTEP President) Nilver Lopez, SUTEP President Caridad Montes, and CGTP Secretary General Juan Jose Gorritti on 9/13 regarding the status of the Frente Amplio. ¶3. (C) According to SUTEP's Nilver Lopez, the Frente Amplio will support Ollanta Humala's presidential bid. Ollanta and his brother Antauro led a military rebellion against the Fujimori regime in 2000. Sacked from the military by Fujimori, interim President Valentin Paniagua reinstated Ollanta and President Toledo sent him as military attache to Paris and then Seoul. Ollanta was then forcibly retired in December 2004. After 2000, Ollanta's brother, Antauro, formed the radical, nativist, quasi-racist, pro-coca Ethno-Cacerista movement (Ref E). Antauro led a January 2005 armed uprising in Andahuaylas, which was quickly put down by the GOP, Since the rebellion, the Ethno-Caceristas have largely disappeared from public view. ¶4. (C) SUTEP's Lopez said the Frente Amplio would have preferred to cement an electoral alliance with Congressman Javier Diaz Canseco and his Decentralized Democratic Party (PDD),but Diaz Canseco, in Lopez' words, "wants to ally with Paniagua" as part of a leftist/centrist front. Consequently, the Frente Amplio shifted its gaze to Ollanta Humala, hoping that Ollanta's ultra-nationalism will help them surmount their image as discredited old-line leftists. With Ollanta as their front man, Lopez continued, the Frente Amplio could score between 10 and 15 percent of the vote and thereby gain a base in the next Congress. -------------- NEW MAGAZINE PUSHES NEW FRIEND -------------- ¶5. (U) Other evidence corroborates the far left's courtship of Ollanta Humala. "Wankar" is an increasingly slick monthly magazine that first came out in July, apparently timed to coincide with Hugo Chavez visit to Lima. The publication sports leading Marxists on its masthead (Ref A). Wankar's second issue featured a long article on Ollanta Humala, quoting from Humala's comments to the Frente Amplio's National Directorate. "Wankar" commented that it was publishing the excerpts to show the "national vision" of "a noteworthy political leader," whose "eventual alliance with democratic forces (i.e., the Frente Amplio) that are headed in the same direction (as he is)." ¶6. (U) According to the article, Ollanta lamented the foreign takeover of the Peruvian economy, stressed the weakness of Peru,s armed forces (which, he said, had the lowest budget in eighty years),and warned that Chile and the U.S. were "historic partners" while, in contrast, Peru and the U.S. (during the Velasco era) had experienced "periods of confrontation." Ollanta upheld production of coca leaf and said that Peru should pursue a solution to its foreign debt along the style of President Kirchner of Argentina. ¶7. (C) CGTP Secretary General Juan Jose Gorritti signaled the direction for the Frente Amplio in a conversation with Poloff on 9/13. Gorritti said that the Frente would take up "national defense" issues like port privatization, stressing the risk that Chilean investors might seize control of Peru's docks and loading areas. SUTEP's Nilver Lopez put the point even more bluntly. When questioned about some of the non-leftist elements in the Humala family's Ethno-Cacerista ideology, Lopez replied that the hard left needed to use nationalism if it was to successfully project its social justice message. Lopez told Poloff that even with Ollanta at the top of the ticket, people who understand "the class struggle" would run the campaign. In the end, the ideological differences didn't matter to Lopez, since the Marxists' goal in 2006 is not/not to win the presidency, but rather to score 10-15 percent of the vote and place a sizable bloc of their members in Congress. ¶8. (U) Recent developments indicate that Ollanta Humala and the far left are both closing on one another and positioning for advantage. Rolando Brena, far left presidential candidate from the 2000 elections and member of both Patria Roja and the Frente Amplio, said on 9/19 that the Frente was negotiating with Humala. On 9/20, Ollanta Humala stated that he was not interested in leading the Frente Amplio, but in forming his own movement, the National Front for the Salvation of the Republic (FNSR),and that this group would welcome the participation of the far left as well as elements from across the political spectrum. -------------- A CHAVEZ/CASTRO CONNECTION? -------------- ¶9. (C) The marriage between the old left and the pro-coca nationalist right is being encouraged by outsiders. Presidential advisor Juan de la Puente told Polcouns on 8/8 that the GOP intelligence indicates that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Cuban President Fidel Castro are pushing Humala and Peru's far-left parties together. De la Puente stated that Peruvian Communist Party - Patria Roja Secretary General Alberto Moreno admitted as much in a recent conversation the two had. De la Puente added that other elements indicated this new dynamic. He noted that the far-left and Humala have celebrated Bolivarian events together in Lima, that Humala's movement has likely received funding from Chavez, and that, for the first time in anyone's memory, the far-left's previous standard-bearer, Javier Diez Canseco, was not/not invited to CUBA this year while the rest of the far-left leadership was. ¶10. XXXXXXXXXXXX ¶11. (C) When Poloff asked CGTP General Secretary Gorritti about possible Chavez financial support for "Wankar," the latter hesitated pointedly before denying any such assistance. When Poloff asked SUTEP's Lopez about Venezuelan monetary support for the Frente Amplio, the union official replied matter-of-factly, "We haven't gotten any help so far, but we are looking for it." ¶12. (C) While they may deny receiving financial assistance from Chavez, the Frente Amplio's members openly admit that the self-proclaimed Bolivarian leader inspires them. Gorritti, a member of the formerly pro-Soviet faction of "orthodox" Peruvian Marxists, waxed admiringly about Chavez' unique brand of socialism, which he said was really a form of Christianity. For Nilver Lopez and Caridad Montes, Hugo Chavez runs "the most democratic government in the hemisphere," an assertion they said was proven by the fact that Chavez "has won five elections." -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (C) Despite differences in ideological origin, an alliance between Peru's traditional far-left Marxists and Ollanta Humala's brand of Peruvian fascism makes political sense. With the failure of the Andahuaylas revolt and the GOP,s subsequent crackdown on the Ethno-Cacerista movement (Ref C),Ollanta was left without a political organization and he lacks a registered party to sponsor a presidential bid. At the same time, the far-left, whose factionalism and whose identification with Sendero Luminoso and the Tupac Amaru Revolutionary Movement (MRTA) terrorist organizations have discredited it with the mass of voters, needs a charismatic leader with a message that can project beyond its narrow base within the intelligentsia, public universities, and labor movements. Given their respective needs, a little political push by Castro and financial incentives from Chavez should be more than enough to bring the far-left and fascist-right together on the basis of their shared extremism and thirst for political influence. ¶13. (C) An August nationwide poll by the respected Apoyo consultancy showed Ollanta Humala placing fourth in a presidential race, with seven percent of the vote and over 10 percent in the southern coast and highlands. Given adequate funding and strong organizational support from the far-left parties, unions and NGOs, we would not be surprised if an Ollanta candidacy could achieve 15-20 percent of the vote and a comparable percentage of congressional seats in the April 2006 elections. END COMMENT. POWERS =======================CABLE ENDS============================