OPPOSITION LEADERS TELL AMBASSADOR THEY WILL NOT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LIMA 002249 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2015 TAGS: PGOV PINS PREL PE SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADERS TELL AMBASSADOR THEY WILL NOT SPARK CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS; PRIME MINISTER OBJECTS THAT THEY ALREADY HAVE REF: A. LIMA 2241 ¶B. LIMA 2222 ¶C. LIMA 2131 ¶D. LIMA 2054 Classified By: Political Counselor Alexander Margulies. Reason: 1.4(b /d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The Ambassador met separately with APRA leader Alan Garcia and Unidad Nacional legislative bloc chief Xavier Barron on 5/18 to express concern over reports that opposition parties might stretch the Constitution to sanction President Alejandro Toledo over allegations that he and his Peru Posible party engaged in fraud to register for the 2000 elections. Garcia and Barron assured the Ambassador that while the opposition parties will likely call for congressional votes on the proposed sanctions, these votes will fail and no/no constitutional crisis will result. They also declared that their parties remain committed to preserving political and economic stability for the remainder of Toledo's term. The Ambassador subsequently briefed Prime Minister Carlos Ferrero on these discussions; Ferrero complained that just bringing the sanctions to a vote has a destabilizing effect. END SUMMARY. -------------- APRA'S ALAN GARCIA -------------- ¶2. (C) The Ambassador told Garcia that he was worried about a possible constitutional conflict between the Executive and Legislative Branches resulting from the 5/19 debate and vote on sanctions against Toledo proposed by the opposition members of the Villanueva Committee investigating the Peru Posible signature fraud allegations (Reftels). Garcia replied that there was no/no need to worry as, "Everything will come out fine tomorrow." He emphasized that APRA is determined to avoid creating an image for Peru akin to Ecuador or Bolivia, and explained his views and strategy as follows: -- As a future presidential hopeful, Garcia recognizes the importance of avoiding precedents that could reduce the President's authority and provide Congress with undue power to remove the head of government. -- Garcia met with Toledo twice to discuss the Villanueva Committee investigation. -- Toledo was careless with his notes of the meeting, however, and these notes fell into the hands of the press, compromising Garcia (Ref C). �00A;-- This created political blowback for Garcia and APRA; to avoid accusations of collusion, they have to be seen to do something. -- The response decided upon was to propose Toledo's "temporary" suspension from office until the criminal investigations/proceedings against him are resolved. -- This proposal will be voted down, with at most 34 votes in favor (APRA's 28 and probably Peru Ahora's six legislators). -- Unidad Nacional will propose disqualifying Toledo from holding office for ten years after his term ends. Garcia thinks this would be very destabilizing, with the public wondering why Toledo should be allowed to stay in office if such a sanction was merited. APRA will not/not vote for this and it will fail. -- Peru Ahora's Edgar Villanueva, who chaired the committee investigating Toledo, will probably not/not even present his proposal to vacate the Presidency. -- In the end, Congress will agree only to send the Villanueva Committee's report to the Public Ministry (Attorney General) for further investigation. This, Garcia said, is the best outcome. -------------- UNIDAD NACIONAL'S XAVIER BARRON -------------- ¶3. (C) The Ambassador had set up a meeting with Unidad Nacional (UN) leader Lourdes Flores, but she fell ill with paratyphoid fever on the morning of 5/18, and was replaced by UN's legislative bloc chief Xavier Barron (the member of the Villanueva Committee who proposed the disqualification from office sanction). Barron said that UN congressmen had discussed this with Lourdes Flores and would not/not take any steps to threaten political stability and economic growth, adding that UN supports Toledo finishing his term of office. He accused the GOP of grossly exaggerating the threat posed by the proposed sanctions, dismissing the latter as political theater. According to Barron: -- The three opposition members of the Villanueva Committee agreed that Toledo and Peru Posible had committed signature fraud, but did not/not agree on the proposed sanctions, each of which had the support of only one legislator. -- Congress, in reviewing the Committee's report on 5/19, will address three issues: (1) electoral irregularities, which are administrative violations; (2) misdemeanors and felonies, which are criminal matters; and (3) constitutional violations. The press and Executive Branch, he complained, have excessively focused on the last item. -- The Congress is scheduled to devote three hours to the proceedings starting at 09:00: one hour of expositions, followed by two hours of debate. APRA, however, likely will call for a recess following the debate, and use the intervening period to negotiate an arrangement on voting for the individual sanction proposals. Consequently, the session probably will not end until 20:00 or later. -- Villanueva's proposal to vacate the Presidency has the support of three legislators (Villanueva and pro-Fujimori legislators Rafael Rey and Martha Moyano) and could count on the support of three more at most. -- APRA will support the suspension resolution, but UN will vote against this. -- UN will support the disqualification resolution, but APRA will not support it. -- There is growing support in Congress for a proposal by pro-GOP Villanueva Committee member Heriberto Benitez (Independent Moralizing Front) to issue a public reprimand to Toledo, which will be a moral sanction without constitutional effect. -------------- PRIME MINISTER FERRERO -------------- ¶4. (C) The Ambassador briefed Prime Minister Ferrero on his discussions with Garcia and Barron. The Prime Minister expressed exasperation with the opposition parties' tactics, particularly with APRA's conduct. He complained that just voting on the temporary suspension offends the Constitution and has a destabilizing effect. Ferrero added that the GOP "has prepared contingency measures," such as a walk-out by its legislators should events in Congress take a turn for the worse. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) Calling a vote on options that violently bend the Constitution is potentially destabilizing; the loose interpretations of provisions argued today may well be cited down the road as precedents. That said, the opposition appears to be playing to lose. The best outcome for Toledo is one where the only motion to be approved sends the investigatory committee's report to the Public Ministry for consideration in its own investigation of party registration fraud. The fact that the opposition, despite its dislike for Toledo, is working to bring that about is what keeps this country from becoming Baja Ecuador. Of course, it is equally true that Peru might be Upper Chile if political parties would eschew their predilection for playing to the cheapest seats. END COMMENT. STRUBLE