IS IT PERU'S TURN TO HAVE A CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS?

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 002222

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINS PREL PE
SUBJECT: IS IT PERU'S TURN TO HAVE A CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS?

REF: A. LIMA 2131


B. LIMA 2054

C. LIMA 1953

D. LIMA 1900

E. LIMA 1375

Classified By: Ambassador Curt Struble. Reason: 1.4(b/d).


1. (C) On the afternoon of May 17, Prime Minister Carlos
Ferrero asked urgently to meet with the Ambassador. Ferrero
related that the government is seriously concerned that
Peru,s Congress, at the instance of the APRA legislative
block, might vote on May 19 to suspend President Toledo from
office when it debates the Villanueva Commission,s report
(Reftels) on fraud allegedly committed when Toledo,s Peru
Posible party was registered. Ferrero said that the Toledo
Administration had obtained written opinions from six of
Peru,s top constitutional lawyers stating that the
allegations against the President do not support impeachment
or suspension. Should Congress vote in support of APRA,s
anticipated motion, the Prime Minister said, the Executive
Branch would not recognize the validity of its act.
Recalling the USG,s quiet advocacy with opposition parties
in February 2004, when the possibility of removing Toledo in
a constitutionally-questionable fashion was being bruited,
Ferrero asked whether the Ambassador could register concern
with the opposition. Ferrero said that Toledo and Alan
Garcia had spoken about the Villanueva Commission,s report
and had an understanding as to how it would be handled (Ref
A). The Prime Minister himself was talking regularly to APRA
Congressman (and party co-Secretary General) Jorge Del
Castillo. Despite earlier understandings, it appeared that
APRA intended to change its stance. Although Ferrero said
Unidad Nacional leader Lourdes Flores was also behind the
effort to suspend Toledo, in response to the Ambassador's
question Ferrero stated that the Government had not/not
spoken directly with her.


2. (C) Polcouns had separately learned on May 16 from APRA
Congressional Bloc leader Cesar Zumaeta that the party was
planning to vote to suspend Toledo from office until a
criminal court could investigate the Peru Posible
registration fraud allegations. (Comment: Typically, such
an investigation would take 2-4 years, a period substantially
longer than Toledo,s remaining term.) Septel provides an
analysis of the constitutional provision that APRA is relying
upon; the provision would have to be severely contorted to
justify the proposed action. However, another APRA source
earlier indicated that the suspension proposal was intended
to pressure the government and did not reflect the party,s
bottom line.


3. (C) COMMENT AND PROPOSED COURSE OF ACTION: The proposed
suspension would provide a back door to remove Toledo without
fulfilling constitutional requirements regarding the grounds
for impeachment nor the super majority impeachment requires.
As such, it would seriously and perhaps lastingly undercut
legislative/executive balance in this country. The
Ambassador has scheduled a meeting with APRA leader Alan
Garcia at mid-day to discuss the matter. Unidad Nacional
leader Lourdes Flores is not/not available May 18 due to
illness. We will also be talking with other political
leaders. It is not at all clear to us that the suspension
scenario has legs. However, if it were to happen, the
resulting impasse between the executive and legislature would
provide a tempting opportunity for this country,s radical
elements to decide the issue through violent protests. We
are preparing a proposed contingency statement for Department
consideration and have primed Embassy elements to reach out
to the security services. The Ambassador recommended to
Ferrero that he bring his Ambassador to the OAS into the
picture and be prepared to turn to that organization for
assistance if a conflict of government branches occurs. END
COMMENT AND PROPOSED COURSE OF ACTION.
STRUBLE