RULING PARTY POISED FOR MAJOR SPLIT

UNCLAS LILONGWE 000105

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/S - GALANEK

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM MI
SUBJECT: RULING PARTY POISED FOR MAJOR SPLIT


1. SUMMARY: Amid the continuing rift within Malawi's
ruling United Democratic Front (UDF),two senior party
officials have resigned their positions on the party's
National Executive Committee. Former president Muluzi,
in his capacity as party chairman, is now openly seeking
to expel President Mutharika from the UDF. Meanwhile
President Mutharika appears to building new political
alliances. END SUMMARY.

RESIGNATIONS, FIRINGS AND NEW ALLIANCES
--------------


2. UDF Publicity Secretary Salule Masangwi and Director
of Agricultural Affairs Dr. Ben Dzowela resigned this
week, the latest event in the ever-widening rift between
former President Bakili Muluzi, who remains UDF National
Chairman, and President Bingu wa Mutharika. Dzowela, a
former ambassador-at-large and erstwhile party loyalist,
said in a statement released to the press that he had
resigned in part due to "manipulative efforts that are
being made by the National Chairman, Dr Bakili Muluzi...
drunk with power to selfishly and deliberately frustrate
the efforts of the State President, Dr. Bingu wa
Mutharika and his administration's determined resolve
fight graft and corruption."


2. Earlier in the week Minister of Home Affairs and
Internal Security Uladi Mussa claimed that the ruling UDF
is planning to expel President Bingu wa Mutharika from
the party. Mussa, who on January 30 walked out of UDF
national executive meeting in protest, said party leaders
had already decided to expel Mutharika and the executive
committee had refused to discuss the matter. Mussa, who
is seen as a Mutharika loyalist, this week lost his
position as the UDF's Regional Governor in Malawi's
Central Region after Muluzi dissolved the three UDF
regional committees. Only those loyal to Muluzi were
maintained or appointed to new committees announced
immediately after dissolution of the old ones. In
another twist to the plot, there were unconfirmed reports
that should Mutharika be expelled from the party, Muluzi
would be arrested shortly thereafter on corruption
charges.


3. Mutharika has been meeting informally in recent days
with leaders of some of the smaller parties, an
indication that he may be building new alliances.
Supporters of two of those parties were prominently
placed at the front of the crowd at a major policy launch
event last weekend. Also this week, opposition leader
John Tembo, who heads the Malawi Congress Party, attended
a presidential event and was seated front row center.
Tembo has not attended this type of event in the past,
and the president went out of his way to publicly greet
the opposition leader in front of the cameras. The media
continues to speculate that Mutharika will form his own
party, although the president has denied any intention to
do so.

COMMENT
--------------


4. The advent of respected political figures publicly
"choosing sides" further emphasizes the deepening divide
between supporters of Mutharika and Muluzi, which began
with the president's corruption crackdown and may well
end with the complete fragmentation of the party. If
Muluzi does expel Mutharika from the UDF, our reading of
Malawi's constitution is that it would have no impact on
the presidency. In any case, it is apparent that if
Mutharika does leave the party, he will take a large
number of officials with him and further marginalize
Muluzi's place on the national political scene.
Mutharika's expulsion from the UDF could also make an
informal alliance between Government and the opposition
more palatable to both sides, strengthening the
President's hand in advancing economic reforms. The
political stability of the country is not at risk, though
the future of the UDF certa