ADDITIONAL 3RD TERM INDICATORS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAGOS 001893 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W STATE FOR INR/AA E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2015 TAGS: PREL PGOV NI SUBJECT: ADDITIONAL 3RD TERM INDICATORS Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reason 1.4 (D) ¶1. (C) In a November conversation with the Consul General, Ugo Okafor of GoodWorks International LLC (strictly protect) said that indications point to President Obasanjo wanting a third term. GoodWorks is the advisory firm founded by Ambassador Andrew Young, who has a long, convivial relationship with President Obasanjo. Okafor maintained that Ambassador Young was not enamored by the idea of a third term bid. Andrew Young himself might visit Nigeria in an attempt to dissuade the President from this course, but Okafor held scant hope that the momentum pushing Obasanjo toward a third term bid could be reversed. Okafor asserted that some of this momentum was from aides and supporters around Obasanjo. However, Obasanjo was not someone who allowed others to order his steps in ways he did not approve. Obasanjo personally wanted this, Okafor believed. ¶2. (C) Okafor added that late First Lady Stella Obasanjo had been a moderating force within the Villa. She was one of the very few people who could disagree with him and make him listen. Okafor predicted that we will see an even tougher Obasanjo in 2006 now that Stella's moderating influence is gone. His third term aspirations may not be the toughest political challenge facing Obasanjo, Okafor remarked. The First Lady's death has precipitated a level of palace and familial intrigue usually the reserve of monarchs. According to Okafor, the President has four former wives and thirty-five children. Stella's death has triggered a significant number of family members seeking to improve their own station and status. The machinations have been intense and time-consuming. Okafor gauged that Obasanjo spent at least two hours daily personally handling the intricate details of these familial intrigues. ¶3. (C) Comment: Okafor echoes a number of sources - Obasanjo wants a third term. And while the President's family matters may seem a distraction, these are the types of challenges Obasanjo seems to enjoy. Instead of enervating him, they may in fact be helping to energize him. It appears that he has his hands full both personally and politically but it also seems like he would not have things any other way for now. End Comment. BROWNE