NIGERIAN VP'S POLITICAL FUTURE DIMS

S E C R E T LAGOS 001425

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIAN VP'S POLITICAL FUTURE DIMS


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4(b) and (d
).


1. (S) Summary. A long-standing consulate contact said
pro-Obasanjo hardliners in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)
were eagerly waiting information from the FBI they hoped
would incriminate Vice-President Atiku. In his political
distress, Atiku is reaching out to former head-of-state
Ibrahim Babangida (IBB). The contact, who is close to
Babangida, said this is the type of situation in which
Babangida thrives. Babangida will secretly support Atiku
while informing Obasanjo of some of what Atiku is up to --
this way hoping to score points with the President. End
Summary.


2. (S) In a September 1 meeting with the Consul General,
Professor Ukandi Damachi opined the PDP appeared to be moving
up its timeline from early next year to right now to dump VP
Atiku. He said Obasanjo loyalists believe the FBI's
investigation of Congressman Jefferson will unearth evidence
of misconduct by VP Atiku. The rumor circulating among the
political elite is that the USG will come down hard on
Atiku's wife, purportedly a U.S. citizen, for tax evasion.
This should be enough to finish Atiku, Damachi smiled.


3. (S) Now in political extremis, Atiku has been making
overtures to former head-of-state Babangida, Damachi's
political boss. Atiku wants to gather anti-Obasanjo allies
to form a new political alliance of political heavyweights
such as himself and IBB. Of course, IBB's strategem is not
as coarse and is more Machiavellian than Atiku's. Damachi
said IBB will likely give Atiku assurances of support in
hopes of enticing Atiku into battling Obasanjo.
Simultaneously, IBB will also keep his lines open to
Obasanjo, informing him of some of Atiku's plans. IBB hopes
to keep Obasanjo and Atiku feuding so that they enervate
themselves. At the same time, IBB figures he can better
position himself in Obasanjo's future political calculations
if he is seen as helping Obasanjo by feeding him information
on Atiku. Damachi said IBB would begin to perfect this
strategy the weekend of September 2-3 when most of the
Northern elite, including Atiku, would be attending a series
of weddings in Kano. IBB, Damachi said, would encourage
Atiku to start his own party as a way of not allowing
Obasanjo to bury him and as a way of remaining in the hunt
for 2007.

Comment
--------------


4. (C) With Atiku under siege, IBB feels he has more room to
maneuver. IBB's instincts are correct but he overestimates
his ability to spin this situation to his liking. Both Atiku
and Obasanjo are aware of IBB's legerdemain and will not be
taken by his expressions of support. Thus, while IBB may
enjoy the gamesmanship of political intrigue, his vaunted
mastery of the craft has actually restricted his ability to
act effectively and will unlikely advance his position
appreciably. End comment.


5. This cable has been cleared by Embassy Abuja.
BROWNE