SOUTHERN POLITICIANS CONTINUE GRUMBLING ABOUT

S E C R E T LAGOS 000116 SIPDIS STATE FOR INR, AF/W, DRL E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/19/2014 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS KDEM NI SUBJECT: SOUTHERN POLITICIANS CONTINUE GRUMBLING ABOUT OBASANJO REF: A. 04 LAGOS 2591 ¶B. 04 LAGOS 2592 ¶C. 04 LAGOS 2513 ¶D. ABUJA 48 ¶E. 04 ABUJA 2075 Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne per 1.4 b and d ¶1. (S) Summary: Based on the Consul General's conversations with several political contacts over the past few days, dissatisfaction with President Obasanjo is again escalating following a brief respite over the holidays. The whispering about whether Obasanjo should be removed from office is becoming much more audible. Support is lukewarm for the president's proposed national dialogue; some consider it a ploy to extend his own power. Several prominent Ijaw and Yoruba leaders, in particular, continue to push for a sovereign national conference, possibly as a vehicle to bid Obasanjo farewell. End summary. ¶2. (S) As Nigeria emerges from the holiday season, talk of dissatisfaction with President Obasanjo is spreading among the southern political class. The Anambra political crisis and the ouster of People's Democratic Party (PDP) Chairman Audu Ogbeh have given additional ammunition to Obasanjo's critics (Reftels). Delta State Governor James Ibori recounted that Obasanjo had invited several governors to a private meeting wherein he excoriated Vice President Atiku and asked the state executives to side with him in the Audu Ogbeh fracas. Immediately after the meeting, the governors phoned Atiku to tell him what transpired, according to Ibori. (Comment: Many of the governors present at the meeting are aligned with Atiku and Ogbeh. End Comment). ¶3. (S) Political figures have been actively meeting across party lines and ethnic affiliations and their talk has been focused on Obasanjo's failings and the parlous political conditions in the country. A prominent attorney told us that rumors are circulating among the political class that VP Atiku has told his allies within the PDP that he has given up on Obasanjo and does not care whether he is removed by constitutional (impeachment) or other means. It is equally a matter of political chatter that Atiku and some of his PDP allies have begun to pay agents provocateurs to begin fomenting trouble within the government and in different areas of the country to further erode Obasanjo's ability to govern. (Comment: We cannot judge the veracity of these rumors. However, this type of chatter is persistent. End Comment). ¶4. (S) Some Southern leaders are outraged by Obasanjo's call for a national dialogue. They see it as an ersatz substitute for the sovereign national conference they have been advocating and Obasanjo has been opposing. Some worry that behind the proposed dialogue is a ploy to craft a constitutional amendment that would allow an Obasanjo third term or a tactic to get an Obasanjo surrogate into power if a third term proves impossible. ¶5. (S) Certain Ijaw and Yoruba leaders, in particular, are actively promoting a national conference. The largest ethnic group in the Niger Delta, Ijaws feel slighted regarding the existing revenue allocation structure. They want devolution of power away from Abuja to the state. In short, they want to keep much more of the oil revenue at home. ¶6. (S) Many Yorubas are disappointed with Obasanjo's performance. They think he has squandered the "Yoruba's time in office" by not moving the economy forward and also by aggrandizing power in the center. Decentralization has been a traditional theme of Yoruba politics but Obasanjo has ignored it, much to his ethnic kin's chagrin. Additionally, many of them believe that should the PDP presidential nomination boil down to a race between Atiku and former head of state Ibrahim Babangida, Obasanjo would side with the latter. However, Babangida is anathema to many Yoruba politicians because of his 1993 annulment of elections that would have brought the Yoruba Moshood Abiola into power. Instead of it being a venue to discuss issues such as the constitution and Nigeria's federal structure, some now want to use the proposed conference as a vehicle to advocate the removal of Obasanjo. ¶7. (U) This cable has been cleared by Embassy Abuja. KRAMER