KUWAITI MP SAYS WOMEN WILL VOTE, ARTICLE 98 TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 000991

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/ARPI AND T

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV KWMN PARM LE KU WOMEN POLITICAL RIGHTS NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
SUBJECT: KUWAITI MP SAYS WOMEN WILL VOTE, ARTICLE 98 TO
PASS, LEBANON'S HEZBOLLAH IN TROUBLE

REF: KUWAIT 944

Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Kuwaiti MP Mohammed Jassem Al-Sagr, chair of
the Foreign Affairs Committee, expressed his tempered
optimism that the National Assembly will approve the GOK's
bill allowing women's suffrage. He added, however, that the
GOK is nervous to pressure undecided MPs. Al-Sagr also
predicted that Article 98 will pass out of his committee
during a vote on March 12. On Lebanon, Al-Sagr said that the
death of Rafiq Hariri served as the greatest blow to
Hezbollah Secretary-General Nasrallah as Hariri had lobbied
the international community discreetly to keep the terrorist
moniker off the militia cum political party. Al-Sagr also
shared his support for the GOK's forgiveness of outstanding
Iraq debt. End summary.

Women Will Gain Vote by Narrow Margin
--------------


2. (C) Al-Sagr, a staunch supporter of Kuwaiti women's right
to vote (reftel),stated during a visit March 9 meeting with
the Ambassador that a bill granting voting rights "will pass,
maybe by a couple of votes, but it will pass." If the GOK
were more aggressive in its efforts, he added, the bill could
pass by ten votes. Al-Sagr lamented that the GOK is hesitant
to pressure eight to ten undeclared MPs whose seats the
Islamists could win in the next elections if the MPs are
viewed as vocal women's rights proponents. The draft bill
will fail "unanimously" when the Interior and Defense
Committee, which is "full of Bedouins and Islamists," votes
on the matter, but that should not affect its chances before
a full Assembly vote, according to Al-Sagr. (Note:
Parliamentary committees only play a consultative role; the
fate of any legislation lies with the full Assembly. End
note.)


3. (C) When Ambassador asked about a timeline, Al-Sagr did
not have a definitive answer but warned that the longer the
vote takes, the more time the Islamists will have for their
counter-campaign. Al-Sagr said the vote should happen within
three to six weeks, just in time for the proposed visit by
Prime Minister Shaykh Sabah Al-Sabah to Washington. If the
bill fails, Al-Sagr said "I don't think (the PM) can go if he
doesn't get the vote." He also urged the Embassy to maintain
a low profile on the subject as the U.S. position is widely
known, and Islamists would portray U.S. support as
interference.

Article 98 Closer to Ratification
--------------


4. (C) Article 98 remains with Al-Sagr's Foreign Affairs
Committee, which is to vote on it March 12 as long as there
are no surprises. He will not place the item on the
Committee's agenda in advance for fear of Islamist rebuke.
Al-Sagr added: "If I see a problem, I will pull it, but so
far so good." The full Assembly will need to ratify Article
98 following Committee action.

Hezbollah in Precarious Position
--------------


5. (C) According to the MP, the greatest loser after Rafiq
Hariri's death is Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah whom Al-Sagr
described as charismatic and smart. According to Al-Sagr,
Hariri quietly lobbied the international community to avoid
labeling Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. With Hariri
gone, Hezbollah is in need of Syria, one of its two patron
countries, now more than ever. Should UN resolution 1559 be
implemented, Al-Sagr added, not only would Syrian forces
withdraw from Lebanon, but Hezbollah would also be forced to
disarm its militia. It could just become a political force
post-disarmament, but "they do not think in those terms," he
said. Al-Sagr was planning to travel to Damascus to meet
Syrian President Bashar Al-Asad, whom Al-Sagr believes is
controlled by the "old guard," but has canceled his trip. If
the Syrians fail to withdraw all of their forces from
Lebanon, he predicted the Syrian regime would collapse with
or without Al-Asad. As for the Lebanese, they are smart
people who have had enough of wars, he added. The big
question, however, is whether Syria will cause problems in
Lebanon.

Time to Forgive Iraqi Debt
--------------


6. (C) Al-Sagr believes the GOK must deal with the new Iraq.
Saddam is gone; the Iraq people are in control. It is now
time to forgive outstanding funds that Iraq. His committee
will take up the matter when the Government proposes it.
Al-Sagr also mentioned that he was upset that Ayatollah
Sistani's candidate, Ibrahim Jaafari, won January's Iraqi
elections as he is influenced by Iran. Al-Sagr would have
preferred current Prime Minister Iyad Allawi.
LEBARON