KUWAITIS EXPRESS CONCERN, UNEASE ABOUT NEW IRANIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 002925 SIPDIS STATE FOR NEA/ARPI E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2015 TAGS: PREL PGOV PARM MARR KU IR KNPP SUBJECT: KUWAITIS EXPRESS CONCERN, UNEASE ABOUT NEW IRANIAN PRESIDENT REF: A. KUWAIT 2900 ¶B. KUWAIT 2893 Classified By: CDA Matthew Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary and Comment: Prominent Kuwaitis expressed unease with the recent election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as President of Iran during June 27 and 28 meetings with Poloff. Although conceding that Ahmadinejad's election would probably not bring about drastic changes to Iranian foreign and domestic policy, most articulated concern over the possible strengthening of Iran's hardline elements. Taking this sentiment to the extreme, well-known political scientist Dr. Sami Al-Faraj shared his concern that the election of Ahamedinejad would speed up Iran's pursuit of nuclear technology and lead to a shift in the regional balance of power in favor of Iran. More than one person expressed the belief that Ahmadinejad was incapable of standing up to the Guardian Council and other entrenched powerful interests in the country, and would likely not last long. Despite the GOK's official congratulations, it is clear from our contacts and local dailies that the election of Ahmadinejad is not being met with optimism. It is likely that the Iranian-Kuwaiti bilateral relationship will continue to be characterized by unofficial wariness. Although Kuwait takes pains to balance its relations with Iran by avoiding official criticsm, there is little doubt as to whose side it takes in the conflict over nuclear technology. The GOK is likely to support any measure that will lead to a thawing of relations between the U.S. and Iran, as it would reduce the threat of Iranian attacks on Kuwaiti territory. End Summary and Comment. Worst Case Scenario: Iran Spreads Terrorism -------------- ¶2. (C) During a meeting on June 27, the director of the Kuwait Center for Strategic Studies, Dr. Sami Al-Faraj told Poloff the recent election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iran would push Iran towards extremist policies and tip the balance of the power in the Gulf in the country,s favor. Al-Faraj argued that the combination of high oil prices and a buoying of hardline confidence in light of the elections would significantly strengthen Iranian bargaining positions on nuclear technology and the Kuwaiti-Iranian standoff over the Al-Durra gasfield. Al-Faraj said that unlike two years ago, Iran is not likely to accept the "carrot" approach to negotiations. A self-confessed "devil's advocate," he predicted Iranian negotiating positions would get tougher and more extreme. Pointing out that nothing short of an attack on Iran,s nuclear facilities would deter the country from eventually obtaining nuclear weapons, he said a presumed attack on Iran by the U.S. or Israel would almost certainly lead to Iranian state-sponsored terrorism in Kuwait and other GCC countries hosting U.S. military forces. Dr. Al-Faraj said he has been working with Kuwait's military leadership in an effort to prepare them for this possibility. ¶3. (C) Al-Faraj said that all GCC countries were deeply concerned over both the potential environmental and national security implications of Iranian nuclear efforts, but would publicly express this concern only as an objection to the possible environmental threat posed by the Bushehr nuclear power plant. (Note: FM Dr. Sabah Al-Salem Al-Sabah has raised the issue of environmental damage publicly and privately during visits to Tehran. End Note.) He noted that the currents in the Gulf move in a clockwise direction, and Kuwait would bear the brunt of any environmental catastrophe at Bushehr. Leading Cleric Disappointed, Says Little will Change -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Moderate Shiite cleric Sayed Mohammed Baquer Al-Mohri said he was disappointed with the outcome of the Iranian elections during a June 28 meeting. Lamenting the defeat of Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, whom he called "a great moderate leader," Al-Mohri said Ahmadinejad had already made alarming statements indicating he wanted to return the "culture of martyrdom" to Iran. Al-Mohri said this was a path rejected by the religious community at Qom. He added that the drafting of Iranian policy would remain in the hands of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council and the Rafsanjani-led Expediency Discernment Council. ¶5. (C) Asked for his assessment of how Ahmadinejad had won the elections, Al-Mohri said he had connected successfully with the poor, unemployed population of Iran, winning their hearts and fulfilling a desire for change. Although Ahmadineljad is "one of them," Al-Mohri said he doubts the new president will be capable of successfully governing Iran. KU Professor: Term Could End in Assassination -------------- ¶6. (C) Kuwait University Political Science Professor Dr. Abdullah Sahar agreed with Al-Mohri during a June 28 meeting with Poloff. Dr. Sahar said Ahmadinejad appeared to be "naive" and predicted his term would end soon after it begins with Ahmadinejad's removal or possibly even assassination. He said the new president is not powerful enough to battle Rafsanjani, the Guardian Council and the other vested interests which rule Iran. He said the Iranian desire for change had been responsible for Rafsanjani's loss in the elections. On the nuclear issue, Dr. Sahar said that economic interdependence and/or military action would be the only ways to stop the Iranian race for nuclear weapons. MP Says Ahmadinejad Unknown; Radical Change Unlikely -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Noting that Ahmadinejad is still an unknown in Kuwait, leading Shiite MP and former Kuwaiti University Professor Dr. Yousef Al-Zalzalah said moderate Shiites in Kuwait had supported Rafsanjani once the race came down to just two candidates. Al-Zalzalah said Iran is unlikley to take any drastic foreign policy actions given the U.S. presence in surrounding countries and the lessons it has learned from coalition action in Iraq. Rather, he said Kuwait's major concern was the nuclear power plant at Bushehr, which he said was unsafe and could potentially severely damage the environment in the Gulf region. ¶8. (C) Al-Zalzalah, who travels to Iran at least twice a year, said he has seen a steady decrease in the radicalism of the hardline regime elements over time. He said consistent pressure by reformers has forced the hardliners to make small concessions that have added up. He noted that the Tehran International Airport now receives flights from dozens of countries on a daily basis; this is in marked contrast to the years following the revolution, he said, when religious fervor and extremism isolated Iran from the world community. A Dissenting Opinion -------------- ¶9. (C) Offering a dissenting opinion, Shiite intellectual Dr. Bader Nader Al-Khodari told Poloff June 27 that Ahmadinejad had defeated Rafsanjani in part because Iranians felt that Rafsanjani would have been a "new Shah." He said that the youth of Iran had voted for Ahmadinejad to protest the widespread corruption and drug abuse which plagues the country. Praising Ahmadinejad as a simple person, he said he would definitely move to combat corruption, but added that he would face difficulty because Rafsanjani still maintains his postion as head of the Expediency Council. ********************************************* Visit Embassy Kuwait's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/ You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website ********************************************* TUELLER