KUWAITI WOMEN'S RIGHTS: WEEK IN REVIEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 001091

SIPDIS

FOR NEA/ARPI BERNS AND DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KWMN PHUM KU WOMEN POLITICAL RIGHTS
SUBJECT: KUWAITI WOMEN'S RIGHTS: WEEK IN REVIEW

REF: A. KUWAIT 1016

B. KUWAIT 991

Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Indications continue to point toward
Parliamentary approval of the GOK's draft bill granting women
the right to vote. The Ambassador's contacts during the week
shared their belief that women will be voting in the 2007
elections. Similar sentiments were heard on the diwaniya
circuit. A second opinion poll this week showed Kuwaiti men's
support for women's rights. A soon-to-be issued religious
edict is to affirm the Amir's purview to rule on the suffrage
issue. Even the GOK's opponents believe women will gain their
political rights if the Government exerts sufficient pressure
on the National Assembly. End summary.

Counting the Votes: Senior Officials Predict GOK Victory
-------------- --------------


2. (C) During a March 13 meeting between the Ambassador and
Energy Minister Ahmad Fahd Al-Sabah, the Minister declared
that women's rights "100% will happen." He projected the
current parliamentary breakdown at 32-31 in favor of the
Government. Other officials have also pointed to an even
split in the vote count. On March 15, an English-language
newspaper reported that the Government is seven votes short
of an simple majority of 33. Thirteen of 50 MPs have publicly
announced support for the draft bill. Another ten MPs are
officially undeclared. Fourteen of the 15 current ministers
are anticipated to vote in favor; Justice Minister Ahmad
Baqer, a Salafi Islamist, is the expected lone dissenter.
Canadian and Italian diplomats speculated to PolChief that
Baqer would be asked to resign so that he would not vote
against the GOK. There has been no movement in that direction
to date.


3. (C) The Ambassador on March 14 met Shaykh Sabah Al-Khaled
Al-Sabah, President of the National Security Bureau, who
mentioned that the vote was turning into a big battle.
Although it is a difficult issue, he added, there are
positive indications that the Government will prevail.
Regarding the Ambassador's public stance on women's rights,
the Shaykh said that "everyone" knows the U.S. position, and
no one would blame the Ambassador if he spoke out. However,
he fell short of recommending a higher U.S. profile on the
issue. Others with whom the Ambassador met this week all
cautioned that U.S. re-statements of our well-known support
for women's rights would likely be employed by those who
argue that outsiders are imposing their will on Kuwait.


4. (U) Kuwait TV and Al-Hurra Satellite televised a March 13
debate during which Salafi MP Waleed Al-Tabtabaei stated his
support for women's voting rights but opposition to women
running for office, effectively confirming his "no" vote on
the draft bill. Does he think the legislation will pass?
"Absolutely not," he declared. In contrast, his fellow
parliamentary opponents of the bill, MPs Marzouq Al-Hubaini
and Mohammed Al-Busairi, agreed that the GOK will succeed as
long as it continues to pressure the Assembly.

Fatwa to Permit Women's Rights
--------------


5. (U) The Minister of Islamic Affairs announced that a fatwa
would be issued March 19, affirming Amir Shaykh Jaber
Al-Sabah's perrogative to grant women the right to vote. The
fatwa will acknowledge that Islamic scholars have differing
views on the issue, and therefore the Amir must decide the
matter. The new fatwa, which is expected to sway a portion of
religious voters in favor of the GOK's position, will replace
a 1985 edict that declared unequivocally that Islam forbids
women from participating in the electoral process.


New Poll Confirms Men Support Voting Rights
--------------


6. (U) Half of Kuwaiti men support granting full political
rights to women according to an opinion poll published March
15 in an Arabic-language daily, mirroring a similar result
from a survey of men and women (reftel A). Twenty-two percent
of respondents back the woman's right to vote, but not to
seek elected office while 28% of men oppose women's
participation in the political process. The poll included a
random sample of approximately 2,000 men.


Women's Rights: Talk of the Town
--------------


7. (C) Women's political rights was the main topic of
conversation during March 15 visits to several diwaniyas,
drawing spirited discussion from attendees, most of whom
agreed that the new law would be passed when voted on by the
Parliament. Prominent columnist Abdulatif Al-Duaij insisted
that expanding voting rights to Kuwait's female population
was a logical and correct progression of Kuwait's democratic
trend. When asked why the GOK had chosen to push for these
rights now, he cited unspecified "foreign pressures" as well
as a desire to avoid the embarrassment of not being seen as a
leader in the Gulf. Another guest commented that recent
developments -- voting in Iraq and Saudi Arabia, the deaths
of Arafat and Hariri and subsequent calls for political
reform -- spurred the GOK to take action and not be left
behind. Although one of the diwaniya guests did not agree
with expanding voting rights to women, all agreed the GOK
would spare no effort to get the law passed.


8. (C) Echoing what the National Assembly Speaker told the
Ambassador on March 5 (reftel B),Deputy National Assembly
Speaker Meshari Al-Anjari told Poloff at a diwaniya that PM
Shaykh Sabah would threaten MPs with the dissolution of the
National Assembly if members proved obstructive to GOK
efforts to amend Kuwait's electoral law to expand suffrage to
women. In the event of a dissolution, Al-Anjari said, the
Prime Minister planned to have an Amiri decree issued
granting women political rights (as was done in 1999) and
calling for new elections. In a fait accompli, any new
National Assembly would then be accountable to its new female
constituents, making a repeat of the 1999 defeat of the Amiri
decree unlikely. Al-Anjari said he expected the National
Assembly to vote on the issue of women's political rights by
"the end of April."


9. (C) Liberal MP Jamal Al-Omar spoke extensively with
PolChief and Poloff about the prospects for the law. He said
that although he supported the expansion of voting rights, he
and other like-minded MPs were prepared for an inevitable
short-term diminution of the power of progressive MPs should
it be passed. He said that the rapid expansion of the voting
base in his and other districts would leave progressive MP's
scrambling to shore up the female vote, whereas Islamists,
who are much more organized, could rely upon their women to
follow their lead at the polls. Al-Omar predicted the first
two election cycles after extending the franchise to women
would be dominated by Islamists. Despite the short-term
damage, he said, progressives in the National Assembly would
support the law, which he characterized as "not popular," as
a matter of principle. He opined that the GOK could pass the
law now with a simple majority, but was working hard on
undecided MPs so the legislation would pass with the broadest
possible support. He discounted reports that the Prime
Minister would ask the Amir to dissolve Parliament, but said
a Cabinet reshuffle was possible and needed.

Uncle Sam behind Push for Women's Rights
--------------


10. (U) At a March 11 rally in Jahra, MP Mohammed Al-Busairi
of the Islamic Constitutional Movement (ICM),Kuwait's
version of the Muslim Brotherhood, attributed the GOK's
renewed push for women's rights to an attempt to appease the
United States. Al-Busairi said, "President Bush has recently
praised all GCC states except Kuwait. This has motivated the
Prime Minister and certain parties to move for approval of
women's rights..." Meanwhile, ICM member Mubarak Sunaideh
echoed a commonly heard refrain that the West is pressuring
Kuwait to grant women's rights only 40 years after the
country's founding even though most Western nations waited
more than 100 years to extend universal suffrage.
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