CONGO/B: A LOOK AT THE NEW GOVERNMENT, REACTIONS TO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000080

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

FROM BRAZZAVILLE EMBASSY OFFICE

PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/C

TAGS: PGOV PREL CF
SUBJECT: CONGO/B: A LOOK AT THE NEW GOVERNMENT, REACTIONS TO
CHANGE IN FINANCE MINISTER.

REF: 04 KINSHASA 02115


1. (U) POST HAS NO ACCESS TO CLASSIFIED SYSTEM AT THIS TIME,
THEREFORE MORE DETAILED ANAYLSIS WILL BE PROVIDED WHEN
POSSIBLE.


2. (U) SUMMARY: IN A FOLLOW-UP TO CONGO/B PRESIDENT DENIS
SASSOU NGUESSO'S NEW YEAR'S DAY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTING HIS
DESIRE FOR A NEW, MORE EFFICIENT, EFFECTIVE, AND SMALLER
GOVERNMENT TO ADVANCE FURTHER REFORMS, THE COUNTRY WAS
SURPRISED ON JANAURY 8 WITH THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF A LARGER
CABINET THAN BEFORE (35 VERSES 34),WITH ONLY 5 NEW FACES.
AT BEST THIS IS A RECONFIGURED CABINET, NOT A NEW ONE. MANY
OF THE HARDLINERS, WHO CONGOLESE HAD EXPECTED TO BE REMOVED,
REMAIN IN GOVERNMENT, BUT WITH EITHER BROADER POWERS OR
RECONFIGURED PORTFOLIOS. THE BIGGEST SURPRISE WAS THAT THE
COUNTRY'S VERY ABLE AND RESPECTED FINANCE MINISTER - BOTH IN
CONGO AND AMONG THE IFIS - WAS NO LONGER IN THE GOVERNMENT.
THE OTHER MAJOR CHANGE WAS THE CREATION OF A PRIME MINISTER
POSITION WHEN THE LETTER OF THE CONSTITUTION DOES CITE SUCH
A POSITION. THE ANTI-CORRUPTION MINISTRY WAS ALSO
ELIMINATED, AND REPLACED BY AN AMORPHOUS "MINISTER OF STATE
FOR THE PUBLIC SECTOR AND REFORM OF THE STATE." OUTSIDE OF
THE NEW FINANCE MINISTER, PACIFIQUE ISSOBEKA, THE OTHER NEW
FACE IN THE CABINET OF ANY IMPORT IS THE APPOINTMENT OF
NATIONAL PETROLEUM DIRECTOR (SNPC) BRUNO ITOUA AS MINISTER
IN A RECONFIGURED MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND HYDRO-POWER. (NB:
PREVIOUSLY THE MINISTRY WAS CALLED MINES, ENERGY AND HRYDRO-
POWER.) DESPITE PUBLIC STATED DISAPPOINTMENT IN THE
INDEPENDENT PRESS AND ON THE STREET, THERE IS NO OVERT
EVIDENCE AT THIS TIME OF PLANS FOR PUBLIC DISORDER OR ANY
OTHER REACTION BESIDES THE ISSUES PLAYING OUT IN THE
INDEPENDENT PRESS AND PRIVATE CONVERSATIONS. END SUMMARY.


3. (U) AN ATMOSPHERE OF DISAPPOINTMENT PERSIST IN THE
CAPTIAL, BUT THERE HAS BEEN NO MANIFESTATION OF THIS IN
TERMS OF DEMONSTRATIONS OR OTHER PUBLIC DISORDER. IT IS
VIEWED THAT PUBLIC DISORDER IS NOT LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM
GIVEN THAT MOST CONGOLESE STILL FEEL THE TRAUMAS OF THE 1997-
2001 CONFLICTS. WHAT HAS HAPPENED IS THAT THE MEDIA BOTH
BROADCAST AND PRINT HAVE COVERED EXTENSIVELY "MAN ON THE
STREET" VIEWS, WHICH NOTE CONFUSION, DISAPPOINTMENT, AND
CREDIBILITY ISSUES OF THE NEW TEAM. FOR MANY, INCLUDING
THOSE IN THE DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY, CONGO MIGHT HAVE MISSED A
CHANCE TO BUILD ON 2004 REFORMS, AND FURTHER CHANGE ITS
IMAGE IN THE NEAR TERM, PARTICULARLY AS REGARDS TO FURTHER
TRANSPARENCY EFFORTS.


4. (U) THE NEW GOVERNMENT TOO HAS ALSO BEEN ON A MEDIA
BLITZ, SEEKING TO EXPLAIN HOW IT IS AND WILL BE DIFFERENT,
ADDRESSING QUESTIONS ABOUT THE CONSTITUTIONALITY OF THE
PRIME MINISTER POST, AND HIGHLIGHTING THAT COMMITMENTS,
PARTICULARLY TO THE IMF AND WORLD BANK WILL BE HONORED AND
THAT THE IMF PROGRAM WILL REMAIN ON TRACK.


5. (SBU) THE NON-REAPPOINTMENT OF THE FINANCE AND THE NEW
PRIME MINISTER POSTION ARE THE TWO BIG QUESTIONS BEING
ADDRESSED BY THE PUBLIC AND DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY. THE RUMOR
ON THE STREET IS THAT IN THE UPCOMING MID-FEBRUARY CEMAC
MEETING IN LIBREVILLE, PRESIDENT SASSOU WILL NOMINATE
OUTGOING FINANCE MINSITER ANDLEY AS THE VICE GOVERNOR OF THE
BANK OF CENTRAL AFRICA, THE POST HE HELD BEFORE BECOMING
FINANCE MINISTER, AND THE POST WHICH THE NEW FINANCE
MINISTER PACIFIQUE ISSOBEKA IS COMING FROM TO THE ROC. WE
HEAR THIS IS TO DEMONSTRATE THE PRESIDENT'S APPRECIATION AND
THANKS TO THE PUBLICLY WELL-LIKED FORMER FINANCE MINISTER
FOR HIS STEWARDSHIP OF CONGO'S DEBT ISSUES AND HIS WORK WITH
THE IMF AND WORLD BANK. ISSOIBEKA, WE UNDERSTAND IS A SOLID
TECHNICIAN, BUT IN CONGO THAT IS USUALLY NOT ENOUGH TO STEM
OR HANDLE THE POLITICAL PRESSURES WHICH ARE SURE TO COME. WE
WILL NEED TO WAIT AND SEE. HANDLING THE POLITICAL PRESSURE
ON TRANSPARENCY ISSUES WAS BY FAR THE FORMER FINANCE
MINISTER'S GREATEST STRENGH, BUT ALSO ONE THAT GARNERED
DISLIKE AMONG CERTAIN MORE HARDLINE MINISTERS.


6. (U) ON THE PM POST GOING TO FORMER GOVERNMENT
COORDINATION AND TRANSPORT MINISTER ISIDORE MVOUBA,
DISCUSSIONS CONTINUE WHETHER OR NOT ARTICLE 74 OF THE 2002
CONSTITUTION WHICH STATES THAT "THE PRESIDENT IS AUTHORIZED
TO DELEGATE A FRACTION OF HIS POWERS FOR REASONS OF
EFFICIENCY TO A MEMBER OF THE GOVERNMENT FOR CERTAIN
DUTIES," COVERS THE CREATION OF THE PM POST. IT IS UNDER
THIS ARTCILE THAT THE GOVERNMENT IS JUSTIFYING THE PM
POSITION, AND IT IS THIS ARTICLE THAT THE INDEPENDENT PRINT
PRESS AND PUBLIC ARE INTEPRETING DIFFERENTLY FROM THE
GOVERNMENT. THE NEW MINISTER OF STATE FOR THE PRESIDENCY,
FORMERLY THE PRESIDENT'S CHIEF OF STAFF, EMMAUEL YOKA, WHO
IS ALSO THE PRESIDENT'S UNCLE, STATED IN A JAN 11 TELEVISION
INTERVIEW THAT THE "SPIRIT OF ARTCILE 74 ALLOWS FOR THE
CREATION OF A PRIME MINISTER." HENCE, THE DEBATES WILL
CONTINUE, BUT THE POSTION WILL BE PART OF THIS RECONFIGURED
CABINET.


7. (U) THE OTHER THREE NEW FACES IN THE CABINET ARE THE
MINISTERS OF HEALTH, SECURITY, AND SMALL AND MEDIUM
ENTERPRISES. CONVERSATIONS WITH INCOMING FINANCE MINISTER,
OTHER MEMBERS OF GOVERNMENT, JOURNALISTS, AND OTHER CONTACTS
AS WELL AS ANALYSIS WILL BE REPORTED SEPTEL WHEN POST HAS
ACCESS TO CLASSIFIED SYSTEM. WE ALSO UNDERSTAND THAT A
VISIT TO CONGO/B BY THE DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF THE IMF HAS BEEN
POSTPONED BY THE IMF. THE NEW FINANCE MINISTER PLANS TO
TRAVEL TO WASHINGTON AT THE END OF FEBRUARY.


8. (U) POST WILL FAX LIST OF RECONFIGURED CABINET LINE UP
AND PHOTOS TO DEPARTMENT.


9. (U) BRAZZAVILLE EMBASSY OFFICE - SANDERS
MEECE