FDLR PRESIDENT MURWANASHYAKA IN CONGO

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 000735 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO CG SUBJECT: FDLR PRESIDENT MURWANASHYAKA IN CONGO REF: A. KINSHASA 356 ¶B. KINSHASA 701 Classified By: CDA TDougherty, reasons 1/4 b/d. ¶1. (SBU) FDLR President Dr. Ignace Murwanashyaka arrived in Kinshasa from Europe the evening of April 28 with the apparent objective of setting into motion steps that will lead to the repatriation of FDLR members and their families to Rwanda. Murwanashyaka met with GDRC officials on April 29, and at the working level with MONUC the following day. ¶2. (SBU) Murwanashyaka is likely to remain in Kinshasa until May 4-5 before traveling to Bukavu. He is considering meeting with the press this week to announce next steps in the San Egidio-brokered plan for the return of FDLR members and their families to Rwanda (reftel A). ¶3. (U) MONUC has initiated preparations for a major repatriation of Rwandan combatants and their dependents from North and South Kivu. Six temporary assembly area sites are being established (in Lubero, Sake, Hombo, Walungu, Sange, and Kanyabayonga),and a military warning order has been issued to ensure the security of the operations. MONUC envisages the possibility that about 10,000 Congolese dependents may enter the temporary assembly areas but not wish to proceed into Rwanda, and has taken steps to alert humanitarian agencies. MONUC will request the FDLR to organize combatants and their dependents to come in according to pre-established waves so that about 300 persons a day can be processed. The combatants will be disarmed, registered, fed, and pass one night in the camp before being repatriated the following day. ¶4. (C) Murwanashyaka has said nothing to MONUC or to any GDRC officials with whom we have talked about international monitors, whether through the formal structure of a "Comite de Suivi" as proposed in Rome (reftel A) and rejected by Rwanda, or more informally through the Tripartite as agreed to by the DRC and Rwanda at the Lubumbashi Tripartite ministerial on April 21 (reftel B). That said, we should be prepared to respond expeditiously in the event repatriations actually begin and the Tripartite is asked to supply observers. ¶5. (C) After weeks of no movement whatsoever since the March 31 FDLR declaration in Rome, Murwanashyaka's visit can only be viewed as an encouraging step. The real question is whether he can actually deliver FDLR combatants in the field, and that is the reason for his trip to the Kivus later this week. From what we have heard about Murwanashyaka's meetings (and we do not intend to meet with him ourselves),it is by no means clear at this point that the rank and file are necessarily prepared to line up behind him. DOUGHERTY