NORTH KIVU CLASHES LIKELY

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 000584

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/06/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL CG
SUBJECT: NORTH KIVU CLASHES LIKELY

REF: KIGALI 371

Classified By: Poloff Meghan Moore for Reasons 1.4 B and D


1. (C) Summary. MONUC field offices are preparing to
repatriate Rwandan Hutu rebels (FDLR) in an increasingly
tense atmosphere. The political-military situation in N. Kivu
is unclear, and MONUC military patrols have reported
increased suspicious activity by ex-ANC (RCD/G armed wing)
soldiers in Masisi and Rutshuru. Two FARDC brigades clashed
about 60 miles northwest of Goma April 3 while tracking FDLR
soldiers. As of April 6, the situation had returned to
normal, but more clashes are likely. END SUMMARY.

MONUC Gears Up for FDLR Repatriation
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2. (C) A Butembo-based MONUC officer told poloff April 6 that
MONUC had made the necessary preparations to start
repatriating FDLR from northern North Kivu right away, and
that many FDLR in the area of Lubero were ready to return to
Rwanda. He thought, however, that Rwandan Foreign Minister
Murigande's recent statements were discouraging (reftel).
Unlike in the past, the Butembo-based officer believed Mbusa
Nyamwisi (Regional Cooperation Minister and head of the
RCD/K-ML) was "on board" with the FDLR repatriation process,
but Governor Serufuli was trying to undermine the process.


3. (C) Per MONUC internal reporting, MONUC Bukavu has been
preparing for South Kivu FDLR repatriation. A Bukavu-based
MONUC officer told poloff April 6 FDLR soldiers in South Kivu
are sitting on the fence, waiting for their hierarchy to tell
them whether to return to Rwanda or stay in South Kivu. The
Bukavu-based officer said that Murigande's recent statements
were not helpful, and suggested that the US and UK coordinate
a strong message to encourage the GOR to accept FDLR
repatriation.

North Kivu Developments
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4. (C) A Kinshasa-based MONUC officer told poloff April 5
that the situation in N. Kivu was unclear, and MONUC military
patrols over the past few weeks have reported increased
movement, suspicious activity, and non-cooperation by 12th
Brigade (ex-ANC) soldiers located in Masisi and Rutshuru.
Source added that MONUC milobs continue to receive reports
from local civilians in Rutshuru of Rwandan incursions, but
clarified that it was difficult to determine whether
civilians meant ex-ANC soldiers or actual Rwandans. Last
week, source reported MONUC soldiers in Goma searched a truck
and found a few mortar launchers and mortars. The troops with
the truck said it belonged to the 113th battalion. The truck
reportedly belongs to Governor Serufuli.


5. (C) Two FARDC brigades clashed about 60 miles northwest of
Goma April 3 while reportedly tracking FDLR soldiers. Radio
Okapi reported that about 10 people were killed, including
one soldier from each brigade, and several were wounded. As
of April 6, the situation had returned to normal. North Kivu
Military Regional Commander Amisi told MONUC that soldiers
from the 18th brigade (ex-APC-- military wing of the
RCD/K-ML) mistakenly fired upon soldiers from the 12th
brigade (ex-ANC),who they believed to be FDLR. The 18th
Brigade temporarily withdrew to Miriki (about 10 miles west
of Kanyabayonga) from Kimaka and the 12th Brigade advanced to
Kimaka. The two brigade commanders met April 4 and agreed to
return to their original positions and conduct joint
operations against the FDLR.

Comment
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6. (C) More clashes between ex-ANC units and other units in
North Kivu are likely due to poor communication and
coordination, mistrust, and possible ex-ANC aggressive
movements. Potential large-scale FDLR movements could
contribute to the confusion. Post will continue to monitor
closely the political-military situation in both Kivus.
MEECE