OPPOSITION PARTY SEES JAN. 14 STRIKE AS A VICTORY

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 000213

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINS KDEM CG
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION PARTY SEES JAN. 14 STRIKE AS A VICTORY


Classified By: Poloff Edward Bestic for Reasons 1.4 B and D


1. (C) SUMMARY: A UDPS political party official sees the
January 14 general strike in Kinshasa as an indication of his
party's renewed strength. According to the official, Vice
President Bemba approached UDPS leader Etienne Tshisekedi
recently with an offer of political alliance, but Tshisekedi
announced publicly he would wait until elections before
committing to any partnership. END SUMMARY.

UDPS Sees Itself as Back in the Game
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2. (C) Remy Masamba, secretary-general of the Union for
Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) political party led by
Etienne Tshisekedi, told poloff February 2 that until
recently, the party was weak and could not successfully
organize widespread civil unrest. The general strike of
January 14, noted an obviously pleased and proud Masamba,
showed that the UDPS was back and could effectively shut down
Kinshasa. UDPS leaders are well aware that national
elections cannot take place by June 30, he explained, but
they will continue to insist upon this publicly in order to
maintain pressure on the political class. Masamba
acknowledged the risk that popular anger, once released,
could spin out of control, and expressed concern that if
someone assassinated President Kabila or ousted him in a coup
d'etat, "no one could predict" the outcome.

No Coalition Partner Yet...
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3. (C) Masamba said Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba, leader
of the Congo Liberation Movement (MLC),approached Tshisekedi
recently with an offer of partnership in a future government.
So far, however, MLC proposals only envision Tshisekedi in
the number-two slot, such as Vice President to Bemba's
President if the Congo adopts a presidential system, or Prime
Minister to Bemba's President if there is a semi-presidential
system. Masamba said a coalition with the competing People's
Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD) of President
Joseph Kabila would be difficult because it would be hard to
imagine the 72-year Tshisekedi agreeing to serve under
someone less than half his age. As for the Congolese Rally
for Democracy (RCD-Goma),the UDPS no longer sees it as a
viable partner because its leaders in Kinshasa have no
authority over "those with guns" in the east. The UDPS is
not sure who does, but suspects Kigali is calling the shots.

...But Tshisekedi Not Helping Matters Either
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4. (C) Unfortunately, said Masamba, Tshisekedi himself is not
helping attempts to build political alliances. For example,
the UDPS leader declared in a recent speech that his party
would not contemplate an alliance with any other party at
least until after elections, or after the first round of
voting if the country adopts a two-round presidential
election system.

COMMENT
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5. (C) Civil unrest--violent or not--has long been one of the
UDPS' favored tactics. Judging from Masamba's remarks,
Tshisekedi's lieutenants appear to feel they have everything

SIPDIS
to gain and nothing to lose by tapping into popular anger and
provoking further demonstrations. Masamba's confidence in
renewed UDPS strength arising from the January general
strike, however, may be misplaced. We believe many people
stayed home largely because of fears of potential violent
incidents rather than as an expression of support for the
UDPS or any other party or cause. As for alliances, aware of
how little they got out of their 2002-2003 partnership with
the RCD-Goma, Tshisekedi and his supporters are in no rush to
sign on as anyone's junior partner--a tendency that is in
keeping with Tshisekedi's own personal temperament. END
COMMENT.


6. (U) Bujumbura minimize considered.
MEECE