RENEWED BANYAMULENGE TENSIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 002060 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2015 TAGS: PGOV MOPS PREL KPKO CG SUBJECT: RENEWED BANYAMULENGE TENSIONS Classified By: Ambassador Roger Meece. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). ¶1. (C) There is a renewed threat of clashes in the High Plateau region of South Kivu province. The problem arises from a new source: tensions within the High Plateau Banyamulenge community. The proximate cause was the return of the "Group of 47," former Banyamulenge combatants who had reportedly been with Col. Jules Mutebusi in Rwanda since Mutebusi and Gen. Nkunda abandoned Bukavu following their takeover of that town in June, 2004. ¶2. (C) On a Goma/Kinshasa flight Dec 3, South Kivu Vice Governor and RCD-Goma member Thomas Nzimatarata told the Ambassador that the Group of 47 had apparently become dissatisfied in Rwanda based on a perception of declining Kigali support for Mutebusi and his men, deteriorating living conditions, and a general sense of a lack of purpose in the group. They left the Mutebusi camp and reportedly moved more or less as a group toward their home area of South Kivu,s High Plateau ( consistent with reporting from Kigali and Bujumbura at the time. Nzimatarata asserted that the 47 arrived in the Minembwe area a number of weeks ago with only a few arms, although many others believe that the group does indeed have access to substantial arms. ¶3. (C) The arrival of the 47 provoked general alarm in many circles in Kinshasa, focused on worries as to whether the group represented a vanguard of a new push from Mutebusi, Nkunda, and/or Kigali to create problems in South Kivu, as well as more general concerns as to whether this event could threaten the past year,s generally more favorable trend in the area for Kinshasa and its influence. Numerous sources have confirmed to the Embassy that President Kabila took the decision to dispatch Banyamulenge General Masunzu to Minembwe on the High Plateau to protect Presidency interests. Masunzu, however, was not sent on an official mission, as that would be in conflict with the authority of the South Kivu military district commander, but ostensibly for a family visit. (Note: Masunzu is currently assigned as the Deputy Military District commander in Mbuji Mayi, Eastern Kasai province. He is reportedly very unhappy there, physically far from his community and power base in South Kivu, and with little real power. Masunzu has a long past history as a Banyamulenge fighter protecting the interests of the High Plateau Banyamulenge community, including major past battles with Rwandan army regular units. He is currently considered to be one of the Presidency,s relatively few allies among the South Kivu Tutsis. End comment). ¶4. (C) According to Nzimatarata and others, Masunzu attempted to bring the Group of 47 under his direct control, unsuccessfully. Indeed, his attempt provoked a major split within the FARDC Banyamulenge brigade he formerly commanded. According to Nzimatarata, a majority of these troops "deserted" Masunzu, setting up a camp around 20 kms away from Minembwe, leaving Masunzu a greatly reduced force for himself. The result is a current state of high tension on the plateau, with separate camps for the Group of 47, Masunzu and his troops, and the Banyamulenge "deserters," all in relatively close proximity. Adding to the mix, military district commander Gen. Agalowa has recently dispatched to the area an estimated 1,000 additional FARDC forces drawn from the non-integrated troops in South Kivu. Nzimatarata expressed concerns that any clash between these groups could escalate quickly, and he advocated Kabila order Masunzu back to the Kasais immediately to defuse the situation. During a December 14 meeting, Vice President Ruberwa essentially laid out the same argument to the Ambassador. ¶5. (C) Comment: There is no history of internal fighting within the traditionally close-knit High Plateau Banyamulenge community. Nonetheless, it is clear that current tension levels are high, as various players including Masunzu are attempting to strengthen or consolidate their influence. The RCD-Goma leadership would undoubtedly want to see Masunzu,s influence further weakened; most others would likely want to see the traditionally-independent Banyamulenge community cohesion and influence generally reduced. While there appears to be broad agreement, even among some Presidency staff, that sending Masunzu to Minembwe was a mistake, there is at this point no consensus views on what to do. Indeed, it is not entirely clear that Masunzu would now willingly return to Mbuji Mayi where he is much more vulnerable and declining in influence. Nor are the objectives of the Group of 47 clear. Some assert they simply wish to resettle as civilians into their home communities; others, viewing their long military history believe there is another agenda. The overall situation is further complicated by the obvious ongoing security issues in the province, including a continuing significant presence of FDLR forces. There are talks underway at the Provincial level, with involvement by the Bukavu MONUC office, to try to find a settlement that appears acceptable to the major Banyamulenge parties, as well as to Transition government members. Hopefully this will pay off before some clash sparks a new South Kivu crisis. End comment. MEECE