LRA UPDATE: FARDC MISSION POSSIBLE SUNDAY/MONDAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001677 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2015 TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV KPKO CG UG SUBJECT: LRA UPDATE: FARDC MISSION POSSIBLE SUNDAY/MONDAY REF: A. (A) STATE 186560 ¶B. (B) KINSHASA 1667 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: PolCouns MSanderson, reasons 1.4 b/d. ¶1. (C) The CIAT (International Committee to Accompany the Transition) meeting October 6 was briefed by General Babacar Gaye (MONUC Force Commander) on LRA-related developments. Gaye confirmed that MONUC has transported about 522 FARDC troops to Aba and said they expect to have the necessary two battalions (over 800 men) in Aba by Sunday. Gaye reported at least one of the two ballallions is an integrated unit, trained by the Angolans. (Note: We have repeatedly been told by the FARDC that at least two battalions are needed to enable the mission to proceed. End Note.) MONUC also will begin October 7 airlifting 17 tons of ammunition (much of which we understand is being given to the FARDC by MONUC) from Kisangani to Aba. Gaye also confirmed MONUC's intent to fly attack helicopters in support of the FARDC mission, but repeated that MONUC did not plan to deploy ground troops to Aba. ¶2. (C) Ambassador pushed back, stressing that the success of the planned operation is of great importance, an outcome that would be better assured by having at least MONUC reserve ground troops in Aba to used if needed. EU Great Lakes Special Envoy Aldo Ajello supported the position, stressing the "riskiness" of appearing to rely on the FARDC two ballalions even with MONUC gunship support. Gaye, however, stuck to his position, stressing Congolese (Army Commander) Kisempia's determination to use the Aba operation as a key opportunity to "prove the worth of FARDC, a position with which Gaye seemed to agree. The Nigeria Ambassador supported this approach; no other Ambassadors addressed the issue. Gaye also noted that he and Kisempia are scheduled to travel to Kampala on Friday, October 14, for consultations with Ugandan authorities. Following the CIAT meeting, the Ambassador spoke with Ross Mountain, action SRSG, again stressing that it would seem prudent and useful to have MONUC ground capability stationed in the area, and again Ajello weighed in as well. Mountain appeared concerned, and at least some MONUC staff on the margins were also suggesting the approach should be reviewed. Subsequent discussion indicated new MONUC discussions on the subject were to be held Thursday evening. A MONUC planning officer told PolCouns Thursday evening that plans for a MONUC ground deployment (either of the Guatemalan commandos or elements of the Pakistani unit) had already been made and that MONUC military is simply awaiting a decision by the political leaders in Kinshasa. The Ambassador was also told that MONUC had received late Thursday evening a written request from the GDRC to assist with the capture of Vincent Otti, per the recently-issued ICC arrest warrants, an element that could also factor into MONUC plans and decisions. ¶3. (C) National Security Advisor Samba Kaputo confirmed to PolCouns October 6 that President Kabila has replaced Sixth Regional Military Commander General Padiri as operational commander of the upcoming FARDC mission against the LRA. The new commander, already in Aba, is General Ndimo, Chief of Staff to Army Chief Kisempia. Samba Kaputo said that the change was made because the troops sent for the mission are from outside Padiri's military district and it was not clear that he actually had authority over them. (Comment: More likely Ndimo was sent out because he is one of the military officers with a direct link to President Kabila, and therefore can call the President directly if necessary, a privilege that Padiri does not enjoy. End Comment.) Padiri has returned to his headquarters in Kisangani and is providing operational support (ensuring timely dispatch of remaining troops and supplies from Kisangani to Aru for onward transport by MONUC to Aba). ¶4. (C) General Gaye told the CIAT that a FADRC officer, accompanied by MONUC's acting chief of office in Bunia, will fly October 7 to Aba to present a "last chance" disarmament proposal to the LRA. If not accepted (as seems likely to be the case),the FARDC action against the LRA could begin Sunday or Monday, according to the new FARDC commander in charge of the operation, General Ndimo. ¶5. (C) Comment: The GDRC appears determined to try to launch a military action against the LRA sometime toward the end of the weekend. We can confirm that at least some LRA members were still in the Aba area as of October 5, when Padiri himself counted about 100. Interestingly, a pro-government (read PPRD) Congolese newspaper reported October 7 that Otti and most of the LRA force have returned to Sudan, although neither MONUC nor the Congolese can confirm this. The Congolese continue to coordinate closely with MONUC, although the degree of field operational coordination with UPDF forces across the border remains unclear. End Comment MEECE