NKUNDA: LOTS OF SMOKE, LITTLE FIRE

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 001494

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2015
TAGS: PGOV MARR PREL CG RW
SUBJECT: NKUNDA: LOTS OF SMOKE, LITTLE FIRE

REF: A. KINSHASA 01432


B. KINSHASA 01452

Classified By: PolCouns MSanderson, reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (C) General Nkunda's return to North Kivu apparently is
a non-event. Changed circumstances in the province have left
Nkunda between a rock and a hard place. Reportedly fleeing
Rwanda in advance of an anticipated arrest warrant, and
evidently lacking financial or military support from Kigali,
Nkunda also finds himself without a support network in the
province (reftel A).


2. (C) During last year's build-up to the seizure of Bukavu,
Nkunda benefited from Governor Eugene Serufuli's turning a
blind eye to his recruiting activities -- and, even more
importantly, he had the active assistance of then-regional
military commander General Obed. Now, however, Serufuli (who
believes, probably correctly, that he can continue to be
governor of North Kivu after the elections) is interested in
enhancing his electoral positioning and credibility by
maintaining provincial security, which means opposing
Nkunda's activities and, possibly, trying to capture and/or
kill him. Likewise, current regional military commander
General Amisi (aka Tango Fort) is not one to stand idly by
while a rogue military officer attempts to poach his troops.
Despite exaggerated rumors that he has up to 17,000 troops,
most here (MONUC, Congolese politicians, FARDC and even NGOs)
believe that Nkunda actually has closer to about 300-500 men
maximum, and even those are not necessarily highly committed
followers but disgruntled and opportunistic ex-ANC troops who
probably won't stay long in the bush if Nkunda can't pay them.


3. (C) Nkunda himself seems to be looking for some way out
of his situation. Serufuli told PolCouns on September 13
that he sent his two senior security advisors (Kamanzi and
Hitimana, both Hutus) to talk to Nkunda and explain that he
has either to leave or be arrested (reftel B). Nkunda told
them he has nowhere to go. Minister of Agriculture Paul
Musifiri (an MLC politician from North Kivu) told PolCouns he
has heard that Nkunda is once again putting out feelers,
trying to find a third-country willing to take him in --
perhaps, he speculated, South Africa. Meanwhile, Serufuli is
coordinating with MONUC and General Amisi on a strategy to
dispatch FARDC troops by MONUC helicopter to arrest Nkunda.
(Note: MONUC Head of Office confirmed to PolCouns that these
discussions are indeed underway and that MONUC is prepared to
support an operation against Nkunda. End Note.) Minister of
Defense Adolphe Onusumba told PolCouns September 13 that he
is briefed on, and fully supports, this potential operation.


4. (C) Comment: While it would be foolhardy to dismiss
Nkunda's potential to cause problems, particularly in the
fragile dynamic of North Kivu, it would be equally foolish
and wrong to overestimate his current capabilities.
Serufuli's spin is always open to question. In this case
however, it appears that Serufuli now would prefer that
Nkunda simply disappear again, whether into neighboring
Rwanda or anywhere else. This would eliminate a thorny
political problem for him personally, and the RCD in general.
However, it seems likely that Nkunda truly does not have
another viable option and therefore is likely to try to
remain in the DRC. RCD politicians such as Onusumba, Tresor
Kapuku and Serufuli himself, all of whom maintain close links
to Kigali, say that Nkunda is no longer welcome in Rwanda.
Even with only 300-500 men he could certainly cause problems,
particularly to the ongoing voter registration process. More
troubling is the possibility that he could join forces with
other rogue elements at large in the province. In many
respects, Nkunda's fate may be in Governor Serufuli's hands.
Serufuli not only controls political machinery in the
province, he exerts de facto control over a substantial
military force as well. If Serufuli decides that Nkunda's
usefulness really is at an end and that he should be arrested
-- or killed resisting arrest -- we would put our money on
the Governor.
MEECE