UDPS LEADER STILL PLAYING THE SPOILER

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 001224

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/2015
TAGS: KDEM PGOV CG
SUBJECT: UDPS LEADER STILL PLAYING THE SPOILER

REF: KINSHASA 1202

Classified By: A/DCM MSanderson, reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (C) Summary: UDPS leader Etienne Tshisekedi continues to
miss opportunities to play a constructive role in the
electoral process now underway in the DRC. Most recently,
after demanding -- and receiving -- a one-week extension of
voter registration in Kinshasa to ensure that UDPS members
would have time to register to vote (after having been
instructed not to do so during the regular enrollment period
by Tshisekedi himself) as a condition for his enrolling or
announcing his intention to do so, the sphinx has not spoken.
Kinshasa registration will end definitively July 31,
although if Tshisekedi so desired he still could register in
Mbuji Mayi. Doing so would be considerably less politically
advantageous, however, and would reinforce the UDPS' image as
a regional, rather than national, party. Tshisekedi
increasingly risks becoming a spent political force if he
maintains his rigid ways. End Summary.

My Way Or I Won't Play
--------------


2. (C) Although some elements of the UDPS senior party
leadership -- notably Secretary General Remy Masamba --
continue to search for ways to move the UDPS into the
electoral process following its failure to forcibly terminate
the transition on June 30, party leader Etienne Tshisekedi
refuses to play ball, instead continuing to insist that the
transition is over and there will be no "valid" government in
the DRC until he is installed as Prime Minister. His rigid
insistence on having his own way seems to be increasingly
alienating him (quietly) from the majority of the party's
members, and could imperil its ability to take part in
national elections next year.


3. (C) For instance, on July 26, as voter registration was
about to end in Kinshasa, UDPS people began a frantic series
of phone consulations with Western Embassies and the
Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) to see if it would be
possible to extend the enrollment period for at least a week,
to facilitate registration of UDPS members who had been
forbidden by Tshisekedi to register during the normal
process. (Note: When contacted we told the UDPS that this
was not a decision for the US to make, and that only the
President of the CEI could authorize such an extension. Abbe
Malu Malu, head of the CEI, did extend registration to July
31 (ref). End Note.) We were told that if the extension were
authorized, Tshisekedi would announce that his members should
register, and also would register himself, or at least
announce his intention to do so. This did not happen.
Instead, word was quietly passed by senior UDPS leaders to
the Kinshasa-based membership that they should register if
they had not already done so. Tshisekedi himself, however,
has so far neither spoken nor registered, although of course
he has a few days left in which he could do so.

Comment
--------------


4. (C) Tshisekedi seems determined to continue to play the
role of electoral spoiler, regardless of how that decision
impacts his party or his followers, many of whom seem already
to have quietly registered, and certainly are doing so in
Kisangani and other areas of Province Oriental and Bas-Congo,
where registration is now underway. Registration centers in
Kinshasa are now mostly empty, with only about 14,000 people
processed July 26 (vice the normal daily total of around
150,000 during the scheduled registration period). Despite
conciliatory noises by party moderates, the UDPS'
authoritarian structure means that in the end, Tshisekedi's
mono-mania is the party's final official word. Although some
Kinshasa newspapers questioned rhetorically whether elections
are possible if the UDPS does not take part, we believe that
it is only Tshisekedi himself who will be the loser if he
fails to demonstrate quickly the necessary flexibility and
willingness to take part in the process. There is good
reason to believe that the majority of the party members are
quietly opting for elections, even if that will mean that
their party leader will not be taking part. Overall,
Tshisekedi's choices are increasingly marginalizing him and,

SIPDIS
if he continues on this course, he risks dividing his party
and becoming a spent political force, at least outside of his
core constituency area in the Kasai provinces.
MEECE