LABOR MINISTER DALLEY ON PNP SUCCESSION, LABOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINGSTON 000393

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CAR (BENT)
NSC FOR SHANNON
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD AND J7 (RHANNAN)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2014
TAGS: JM PHUM ELAB PGOV CVIS
SUBJECT: LABOR MINISTER DALLEY ON PNP SUCCESSION, LABOR
UNREST, AND CCJ

REF: A. KINGSTON 253

B. 04 KINGSTON 2898


1. Summary: On February 4, Poloff met with Labor Minister
Horace Dalley. On the eve of the People's National Party's
(PNP) vice-presidential election, Dalley expressed his
concern that internal factions could pull the party into
conflict. He also shared his predictions for the election
results, and confirmed his continuing support for National
Security Minister Peter Phillips to succeed Prime Minister PJ
Patterson. Dalley discussed his shaky relations with unhappy
employers and workers, and shared his thoughts on the
Caribbean Court of Justice and its impact on the PNP
government. End Summary.

Predictions for PNP Succession
--------------


2. At the PNP's annual convention on January 22nd, Paul
Burke, Region Three Chairman, received a surprise (to his
competitors) nomination for the vice presidency that
challenged the four incumbents (Peter Phillips, Portia
Simpson-Miller, Karl Blythe, and Paul Robertson),who were
widely expected to be re-elected to their posts unchallenged.
The move threw the conference into disarray and resulted in
the spontaneous huddling of the party leadership, followed by
PM Patterson's designation of February 5 as the vice
presidential election date. On the eve of the vote, Dalley
explained to Poloff that he was skeptical that the event
would go smoothly, citing security concerns and the risk that
the competing internal factions would cause the voting to
degenerate into public clashes of the sort for which the
opposition Jamaica Labor Party (JLP) has become renowned in
the media (see Ref A).


3. Dalley claimed confidence that Burke's surprise entry into
the field would not win him a vice-presidential spot, but
that the vote itself would reveal how much support each
candidate has among the delegates, thus forecasting the
upcoming party presidential elections. Dalley explained that
his support is still behind Phillips (see Ref B) who, he
said, expected to come in third in the February 5 voting.
The Labor Minister asserted he was confident that Simpson
Miller, whom he called his "second choice" for party
president, would garner the most votes.


4. Dalley proposed two scenarios that he said might play out
before the PNP calls for internal presidential elections.
First, he said that Simpson-Miller could strike a deal with
Finance Minister Omar Davies, a candidate for party president
whose campaign has not yet gained much momentum in the public
view. Dalley suggested that Davies might withdraw his
candidacy and ask his delegates to support Simpson-Miller
instead, boosting her campaign. Second, the labor minister
said that, should crime continue unchecked in Jamaica,
Phillips could be asked to leave his post as national
security minister, in which case he would drop out of the
race for the presidency.

Labor Unrest is Not a Threat
--------------


5. Turning to his issues as labor minister, Dalley stated an
interest in continuing to serve in his current position. He
expressed little concern over recent newspaper headlines that
report Dalley to be unpopular among both labor groups (for
fining a group of striking workers) and employers (for
raising the minimum wage). Dalley said that he was not
worried about recent calls by labor groups for his
resignation, that the prime minister had assured him that
such threats would not be taken seriously, and that the
matter would be resolved.


6. Dalley expressed concern at the current state of the U.S.
H-2B visa program, which has historically allowed
approximately 8,000 temporary Jamaican workers per year to
hold seasonal jobs in the United Sates, typically in the
hospitality industry. Dalley explained that the enforcement
of a worldwide cap on the number of visas issued annually
would affect close to 3,000 Jamaican seasonal workers this
year. He said that his ministry is closely following appeals
by U.S. employers to waive the cap for employees who have
previously been granted H-2B visas.

Caribbean Court of Justice
--------------


7. On February 3, the U.K. Privy Council, which serves as
Jamaica's highest court, ruled the government's approach to
establishing the Caribbean Court of Justice unconstitutional
(see Septel). Dalley denied that extensive media coverage of
the issue would seriously threaten the PNP in advance of the
upcoming general elections. He explained that any negative
fallout from the issue was not likely to sway most voters, as
the court is a problem for the "upper and middle" classes.
He added that the months leading up to the general election
amounted to a "political lifetime," and anything could yet
happen. He went on to say that he is not worried about the
Jamaica Labor Party's leading candidate to succeed Patterson,
Bruce Golding. Golding, Dalley said, "owes too many favors"
to the supporters who backed his ascent to party leadership,
and Golding is now watched by them with such scrutiny that he
is effectively "under house arrest." Dalley added that the
CCJ could even reflect well on the PNP, should they be able
to broker a deal with the JLP to push it through. The matter
would not, Dalley said, go to a referendum. The PNP, he
explained, does not have a successful referendum record, not
having won one since 1962, when Jamaicans voted for their
independence.

Trafficking in Persons
--------------


8. At the end of the meeting, Poloff delivered to Dalley a
copy of a January 14 letter to the Ministry of National
Security, informing them that the 2005 Trafficking in Persons
Report would be published in June. Dally said he would raise
the issue within his ministry. (Note: Dalley mentioned that
his ministry was investigating some trafficking cases, but it
was clear that he was referring to alien smuggling. Dalley's
lack of awareness, as a cabinet minister, of TIP is likely
representative of the GOJ's level of awareness on the matter
in general. End Note.)


9. Comment: Dalley requested this meeting with Poloff, urging
that "we must talk." However, he did not seem to have an
explicit message to register with Post. As in Poloff,s last
meeting with Dalley on October 22, 2004, the labor minister
was notably forthcoming and casual. His comments on the PNP
succession continue to largely track with what we are hearing
elsewhere about the PNP race, although Dalley's confidence in
the candidacy of Peter Phillip now appears less resolute. In
the week following the February 4 meeting, many of Dalley's
assertions have been borne out: on February 5th, Phillips
placed third in the party,s vote, although Simpson-Miller
placed second; and on February 7, PM Patterson announced that
he would meet with trade unions later in the month to resolve
their dispute with Dalley. End Comment.
TIGHE