PNP INSIDER SHARES PREDICTIONS OF PRIME MINISTER'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 001106

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CAR (BENT)
NSC FOR SHANNON
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD AND J7 (RHANNAN)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2015
TAGS: JM PREL PGOV
SUBJECT: PNP INSIDER SHARES PREDICTIONS OF PRIME MINISTER'S
RETIREMENT, SUCCESSION

REF: 04 KINGSTON 02898

Classified By: MARK J. POWELL FOR REASONS 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (U) Poloff met on April 18 with Balfour Denniston, member
of the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the People's
National Party (PNP). Denniston discussed Prime Minister
P.J. Patterson's expected plans for retirement in the next
year, and the candidates who are likely to succeed him as
party leader and Prime Minister.


2. (C) Asked by Poloff about recent rumors that the Prime
Minister might remain in office longer than previously
expected, Denniston said that it was likely that Patterson
would retire in early 2006, perhaps in March or April. At
the end of 2004, PNP insiders expected Patterson to step down
as early as March 2005 (reftel). Denniston said that
Patterson's motivations to extend his term include his desire
to be succeeded by Finance Minister Omar Davies, whose
lagging campaign would have more time to develop the longer
Patterson delays his retirement. Denniston also said that
Patterson would like to secure Jamaica's relationship with
the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) before he steps down,
and that he would prefer to attend the September G-77
meetings in New York while still in office.


3. (C) Offering an assessment of Omar Davies' campaign to
succeed the Patterson, Denniston made it clear that he very
much doubts that Davies will be successful. He explained
that Davies is a politician whose power as Finance Minister
far outweighs his popularity in representational politics.
Davies is respected for ably handling a very technical and,
to most voters, ethereal portfolio: managing the country's
debt-laden finances. However, he does not command the same
loyalty among his constituents as his more popular colleagues
in Parliament.


4. (C) Denniston also commented on the candidacy of Portia
Simpson Miller, Minister of Local Government, Community
Development, and Sports. He proffered that, in contrast to
Davies, Simpson Miller continues to be very popular, and that
the race "is hers to lose." Simpson Miller's portfolio, he
explained, is much more accessible to the voting public, and
has allowed her to garner support and develop very strong
relationships at the local level, even with many of the
island's opposition Jamaica Labor Party (JLP) members of
Parliament.


5. (C) Commenting on new JLP leader Bruce Golding's recent
victory in the West Kingston by-election for a much-needed
parliamentary seat, Denniston asserted that Golding's ascent
to the official position of Leader of the Opposition is
welcomed by the PNP. He suggested that the government called
for the by-election early )- which allowed Golding to
represent the JLP in the parliamentary budget debate on April
21 )- because the PNP considers Golding to be less of a
threat, particularly in Parliamentary debates, than interim
Opposition Leader Kenneth Baugh. (Comment: We suspect that
Denniston was being disingenuous in describing the PNP's
acquiescence to Golding's inevitable rise to opposition
leadership, particularly given Golding's demonstrated
debating strengths, and his very capable and highly regarded
performance in the budget debate. End Comment.)


6. (C) Comment: Poloff has met recently with four different
PNP insiders, all of whom have indicated that Patterson may
delay his retirement beyond previous expectations. While one
suggested that the Prime Minister would not step down until
2007, three offered March or April of 2006 as a likely
retirement date. Each of them spoke of Patterson's desire to
wrap up unfinished business and secure his legacy as his
primary motivation to extend his term in office. Patterson
has commented publicly that he will not lead the PNP into the
next general election, to be held no later than October 2007,
but has not revealed specific plans as to when he might demit
office. Portia Simpson Miller remains the PNP frontrunner to
succeed him, well ahead of National Security Minister Peter
Phillips and Davies. Though Phillips and Davies both trump
Simpson Miller in Jamaica's very important "credentials
sweepstakes" (both hold doctorates),neither can match her
clear rapport with most Jamaicans. The fate of the
candidates will be determined at the party's annual
conference, usually held in September, where delegates will
choose a party leader who, in turn, will run against Bruce
Golding.
TIGHE