UML SUSPICIOUS OF MAOIST INTENTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 002969 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SA/INS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/30/2015 TAGS: PTER PGOV PREL NP SUBJECT: UML SUSPICIOUS OF MAOIST INTENTIONS REF: KATHMANDU 2956 Classified By: Charge Elisabeth Millard. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) UML Leader MK Nepal told the Charge on December 30 that he was suspicious of Maoist intentions. He said the Maoists were not acting against the Palace, but rather targeting common people, so he suspected the Maoists were playing both the Parties and the Palace. He said he did not know whether the insurgents intended to extend their cease-fire, and said that even asking Maoists about it would be counterproductive as they would only label him a spy for the Palace. He noted that the King did not appear worried about the situation in Nepal, as he was planning a three-week tour of Eastern Nepal starting January 1. MK Nepal strongly rejected the idea that the UML would be associated with Maoist violence, and said that the UML could analyze, criticize and condemn the wrongdoing of anyone, including the Maoists, the King or other political parties. He claimed strong attendance at recent mass meetings and said the next goal was for 200,000 people to come for peaceful demonstrations in Kathmandu on January 20. He noted that action would be increasingly "militant, non-cooperative and disobedient" to ratchet up the pressure on the King to change course because the King had the "skin of a rhinoceros." He welcomed assistance from the international community to create an environment for dialogue. End Summary. UML Suspicious of Maoists -------------- ¶2. (C) UML Leader MK Nepal told the Charge on December 30 that he was suspicious of Maoist intentions. He said he had no contact with the Maoists and no meetings planned. He added that he did not know whether the Maoists would extend their cease-fire (set to end January 2) and if he were to ask the Maoists about the cease-fire, the Maoists might blame him for any subsequent government action against them. He said it was better to keep distance between himself and the Maoists, explaining that the Maoists had charged him with being a spy for the Palace after past meetings. Noting that the Maoists had not extorted or targeted people close to the Palace, but rather had focused on common citizens, he said he feared that the Maoists might be playing both the Palace and the Parties. The smartest move for the Maoists would be to extend the cease-fire and try to isolate the King. He stressed that he encouraged the Maoists to abide by international human rights standards and only attack military forces. The Charge urged him to tell the Maoists to stop all violence. MK Nepal responded that he would use mass media to communicate this message to the Maoists. Hoping for Cease-fire Extension, but not Optimistic -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) MK Nepal said he hoped that both the government and the Maoists would extend the cease-fire to create space for a peaceful political environment. He worried how the Parties would hold political rallies if the cease-fire ended. However, he also worried that both sides had used the Maoist's unilateral cease-fire to prepare for war, which would lead to more people being killed. He noted that the Parties had nothing to offer the Maoists, and blamed the King for not responding to the Maoist cease-fire in a positive way and for not soliciting the UN to help monitor a surrender of arms. He dismissed Vice Chairman Giri's statement on the possibility of postponing elections (reftel),saying that Giri's and the King's statements calling the Maoists weak only provoked Maoist action. He said the King did not appear seriously worried about the situation as he was planning a three-week tour of Eastern Nepal starting January 1. UML Able to Meet and Speak Freely -------------- ¶4. (C) MK Nepal strongly rejected the idea that the UML was bound to anyone, and said that the UML could analyze, criticize and condemn the wrong-doing of anyone, including the Maoists, the King, or other political parties. Though he would not comment on the Maoist statement threatening action against anyone participating in the election, he noted the Maoist assurances to the UN Office of High Commissioner for Human Rights (reftel),and reiterated that the UML could not agree with the Maoist policy of violence. He admitted that the Maoists had obstructed some recent UML Party gatherings in hilly regions, but noted the success of the UML rallies as "people now have the habit of hearing threats and so are less scared." He said that the recent UML rally in Biratnagar attracted 100,000 people, noting that even Nepali Congress leaders spoke at that rally. He said that the Palace minimized the number of people at the rallies and claimed they were only paid supporters, but in reality many people were in support of the Parties. Upcoming Plan -------------- ¶5. (C) Seven-party alliance leaders were set to meet on January 1 to discuss their next steps. He noted that in the second phase of joint efforts, all seven-parties would act. He said the alliance was calling people to Kathmandu on January 20 with the goal of attracting 200,000 people. He said they had originally wanted half a million people, but took into consideration the Parties' actions against the February 8 municipal polls, and decided to target a smaller number. Though he worried about uncontrollable mass demonstrations, saying that in his last visit to Nepalgunj the party volunteers had to "sideline" him for safety, he argued that it was only through civil disturbance that the Parties could "touch the pulse of the regime." He stressed the goal was for peaceful, non-violent gatherings of people. However, he said that they would be increasingly "militant, non-cooperative and disobedient" to ratchet up the pressure on the King to change course. He worried that once they started "riding the tiger" he could not say what would happen next. He said the Parties would "concentrate all forces" the second or third week of February and "take action to a new height," stressing that it would be peaceful action "through strong words" because the King had the "skin of a rhinoceros." International Interest Needed -------------- ¶6. (C) MK Nepal stressed that the international community had an important role to play in bringing peace to Nepal. He said he had written to the UN Secretary General urging the UN to take interest in Nepal. He noted that earlier on December 30 the Indian Ambassador had spoken to him about the possible role of Norway or another European country as a host country for dialogue between the Parties and the Maoists. MK Nepal said he would welcome a European initiative, but that the UN or foreign countries would have to assist in getting travel documents for Maoists to travel. MK Nepal said that in a recent meeting with a Chinese diplomat, the Chinese said they wanted the King to reconcile and denied wanting to strengthen the monarchy. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) MK Nepal's claim that he is not in touch with the Maoists rang hollow and is not supported by reporting in other channels. With just three days to go before the Maoist cease-fire expires, the Parties do not appear to have decided how to react if the Maoists openly resume their violent struggle. MILLARD