PALACE REMAINS ON COURSE WITH FEBRUARY 1 GOALS

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 002905

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SA/INS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/23/2015
TAGS: PTER PGOV PREL NP
SUBJECT: PALACE REMAINS ON COURSE WITH FEBRUARY 1 GOALS

REF: A. KATHMANDU 2793


B. KATHMANDU 2874

C. KATHMANDU 2816

D. KATHMANDU 2743

E. KATHMANDU 2556

Classified By: Charge Elisabeth Millard. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
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1. (C) In a December 20 press conference, Vice-Chairman Dr.
Tulsi Giri gave what was widely regarded as a response to the
messages carried by Indian FS Saran (ref A) and the
Ambassador in his December 16 meeting with the King. Giri
said the government was moving forward on the King's February
1 plan, and having already "controlled corruption and
weakened terrorist forces," the government was on course to
hold elections. Responding to Giri's remarks that there was
no possibility of the government reconciling with the Parties
on the basis of the 12-point understanding, UML leader M.K.
Nepal said, "We would never backoff from the 12-point
understanding with the Maoists." NC leader G.P. Koirala
reiterated the alliance's plan to boycott the municipal
election. The royalist Rastriya Prajantra Party (RPP) had
not yet taken a stand on participation in the upcoming
election, threatening a split within the party. While no
political leaders wanted to predict Maoist action, continuing
violence in the villages, and the Maoist opposition to the
elections caused many to worry that the Maoists would not
extend their unilateral cease-fire, set to expire on January

3. End Summary.

Giri Looks Toward Election
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2. (C) On December 20, Giri ruled out a government
cease-fire, called the Maoists capacity to strike weak, and
dismissed reports that the government was forming a peace
committee, saying there was no possibility of reconciliation
with the seven party alliance on the basis of the 12-point
understanding. "They have joined hands with the rebels to
destroy the established institution of the monarchy, this
will never be accepted by the government" he said. Giri
claimed that the King's February 1 move was achieving its
goal, saying, "February 1 had three objectives -- tackling
corruption, settling terrorism and holding polls -- to
strengthen democracy." "Since the government has controlled
corruption and broken the back of terrorism, it is preparing
to accomplish the third objective," he added.

Parties Reiterate Election Boycott
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3. (C) On December 21, UML leader M.K. Nepal told the media
that Giri had spoken the mind of the palace and by ruling out
talks with Maoists showed that the government was against
restoration of peace, democracy and progress. M.K. Nepal
said, "We would never back off from the 12-point
understanding with the Maoists." He added that the
seven-party alliance "would not budge on issues like election
to a constituent assembly, restoration of democracy and the
end of autocracy." He said, "Giri's arguments give the
impression that he has gone out of his mind." M.K. Nepal,
one of the drafters of the 1990 Constitution, added that the
only way forward was to draft a new constitution by a
constituent assembly because the current constitution had
failed to meet the needs of the people. On December 20, in
his hometown of Biratnagar, G.P. Koirala reiterated the
Parties' stance that the most important part of the
seven-party alliance's "joint people's movement" was foiling
the government's attempt to hold municipal elections by
actively boycotting it. He directed party workers to reach
every household to tell people not to participate in the
unconstitutional election. He downplayed the leadership
dispute within the NC's student wing, the Nepal Student
Union, (ref B) and urged cadre not to highlight the
intra-party issue. According to an NC central committee
member, the seven parties have decided to appoint point
persons to each of the municipalities to coordinate actions
against the elections, such as demonstrations and
door-to-door cavassing.
RPP Split Over Election Participation
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4. (C) The royalist Rastriya Prajantra Party (RPP) (not a
member of the seven-party alliance) was on the verge of an
internal split on December 21 after some members threatened
to hold the party's special General Convention themselves if
party chairman Pashupati Shumsher Rana refused to summon the
convention within nine days. At issue was the party's stance
on participation in the King's upcoming municipal polls.
"There are hardly five weeks left to file candidacy but the
party has yet to decide whether or not to take part,"
complained party Vice-chairman Lawoti. Central Committee
member Dhruba Bahadur Pradan told Emboff on December 20 that
some party members also wanted to vote to revoke party
membership for those who had accepted places in the recent
Cabinet (ref D).

Parties Look for Maoist Monitoring Mechanism
--------------


5. (C) M.K. Nepal told the Charge on December 21 that the
Maoists and the Parties had not met to flesh out the 12-point
understanding since its announcement on November 22 (ref E).
Noting that the Maoists were not fully keeping their
commitments on the ground, M.K. Nepal said the Parties were
working on a mechanism to monitor the Maoists activities in
the countryside, and had approached the UN Office of the High
Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) for assistance. He
said that ideas for monitoring were a work in progress, but
noted that the Maoists would have to accept monitoring, "or
the understanding won't be worth the paper it is written on."
Meanwhile, local NGO Human Rights and Peace Society (HURPES)
issued a press release on December 21 urging the Maoists to
stop acts of cruelty against civilians, which had continued
in several districts. HURPES drew attention to recent
actions in Okhaldhunga and Ramechhap Districts in which
Maoists forcibly displaced villagers by locking farmer's
houses and looting their property, saying "innocent
villagers, from year-old children to 84 year olds, are forced
to seek refuge at a neighbor's haystack."

Uncertain if Maoists Will Extend Cease-fire
--------------


6. (C) Minendra Rijal (NC-D) told Emboff that after four
months of cease-fire, the Maoist cadre were pressuring the
leadership to fight, arguing that the government was weak and
now was the time to strike. He therefore predicted that the
Maoists would end their cease-fire, though cautioned that it
was difficult to predict Maoist action. Anil Jha (NSP-A)
agreed, noting that the Maoists wanted to threaten candidates
in the municipal election. Pradan (RPP) said that he
believed many people in District headquarters wanted to vote
to demonstrate that they could do so, but that the Maoists
would threaten and use violence to prevent them from doing
so. Virtually every party leader we have spoken to over the
past week has showed discomfiture when asked about their
posture if the Maoists resume violence. Most note that "of
course we must condemn it," but it is unclear whether they
would actually renounce the 12-point understanding.

Protests On Nagarkot Incident Continue
--------------


7. (C) Students around the country continued to protest the
December 16 massacre at Nagarkot (ref C),sometimes
violently. The December 22 Himalayan Times carried a front
page photo of police using batons to quell rock throwing
students in Kathmandu. On December 22, Ian Martin of OHCHR
released a statement noting that he was particularly
concerned that "all evidence, including securing the scene of
the shootings, was apparently not properly conserved, which
will make a throughout investigation by the (government)
Commission more difficult." Sapana Malla, Supreme Court
advocate, told the Charge on December 21 that the students
were using the Nagarkot incident as an excuse to protest.
She said the Parties did not particularly welcome the
students' display of violence.

Comment
--------------

8. (C) While Giri's comments were widely interpreted as
HMGN's negative response to India and the U.S. urging the
King to reach out to the political parties and declare a
ceasefire, the King himself twice repeated to the British
Ambassador on December 21 that "you musn't assume that
everything Giri says has my blessing." Regardless of whether
Giri's rejection of a change of course had a royal belessing
or not, accommodation appears nowhere in sight -- with the
King sticking to his timeline for municipal elections on
February 8, polls the Maoists announced on December 23 they
will violently oppose (septel).
MILLARD