NEPAL'S MAN IN TIBET DISCUSSES REFUGEE, ARMS AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 002866 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS NEW DELHI FOR DAO ISLAMABAD FOR DAO BEIJING FOR SELIGSOHN E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2015 TAGS: PREL PREF MASS MCAP SENV NP CH SUBJECT: NEPAL'S MAN IN TIBET DISCUSSES REFUGEE, ARMS AND FLOOD ISSUES REF: A. KATHMANDU 0174 ¶B. KATHMANDU 2596 Classified By: CDA Elisabeth I. Millard; Reasons 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: NEPAL'S DIPLOMAT IN LHASA HAS CONFIRMED THAT CHINESE PRESSURE PROMPTED NEPAL TO CLOSE THE TIBETAN REFUGEE WELFARE OFFICE IN KATHMANDU LAST YEAR. CONTINUING PRESSURE FROM THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA (PRC) ALSO MEANS THAT NEPAL DOES NOT PLAN TO RECOGNIZE A SUBSTITUTE ORGANIZATION ALTHOUGH "THE SAME PEOPLE" WHO WORKED WITH REFUGEES ARE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE THEIR SERVICES, HE SAID. ON A CHINESE ARMS TRANSFER TO THE ROYAL NEPAL ARMY (RNA),CONSUL GENERAL LEELA MANI PAUDYAL CONFIRMED THE RECENT TRANSFER OF LETHAL WEAPONS AND AMMUNITION ACROSS THE TIBET AUTONOMOUS REGION (TAR). HE PUT HIS DISCUSSION OF BOTH THE REFUGEE AND ARMS ISSUES IN THE CONTEXT OF NEPAL ACTING "NOT BY CHOICE BUT BY COMPULSION." PAUDYAL COMPLAINED ABOUT CHINA'S REFUSAL TO ALERT NEPAL TO HIGH WATER LEVELS ALONG THEIR COMMON BORDER WHICH THREATEN TO FLOOD NEPAL. END SUMMARY. STATUS AND SERVICES FOR REFUGEES IN NEPAL WILL NOT CHANGE -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C/NF) ON TIBETAN REFUGEES, CG PAUDYAL REAFFIRMED NEPAL'S COMMITMENT TO PROTECT THE TIBETAN REFUGEES. HE EXPLAINED THAT HIS MAJESTY'S GOVERNMENT OF NEPAL (HMGN) WAS NOT IN A POSITION TO RESIST PRESSURE FROM THE PRC TO CLOSE DOWN OFFICIAL SUPPORT TO TIBETAN REFUGEES. THIS HAD LED TO THE CLOSING OF THE TIBETAN WELFARE OFFICE IN JANUARY 2005 (REF A) AND WOULD PREVENT ANOTHER ENTITY FROM BEING REREGISTERED IN ITS PLACE, PAUDYAL SAID. IN SPITE OF THIS, NEPAL WAS ALLOWING "THE SAME PEOPLE" WHO WORKED IN SERVICES TO THE REFUGEES IN THE PAST TO CONTINUE SERVING THE REFUGEES. NEPAL WOULD NOT RETURN ANY MORE REFUGEES TO THE PRC AT CHINA'S REQUEST. THE TOTAL EIGHTEEN WHO WERE RETURNED MORE THAN TWO YEARS AGO (WHEN PAUDYAL TOOK UP HIS POST) EVENTUALLY GOT TO GO HOME, HMGN WAS TOLD. HOWEVER, THAT WAS A DIFFICULT SITUATION. NEPAL VIS-A-VIS CHINA: COMPULSION, NOT CHOICE -------------- - ¶3. (SBU/NF) FORTY YEARS AGO, NEPAL HAD MORE LEVERAGE WITH CHINA, THEN ISOLATED AND IN NEED OF ALLIES, PAUDYAL EXPLAINED. HMGN HAD BEEN ABLE TO WORK THOSE COLD-WAR CIRCUMSTANCES TO ITS ADVANTAGE IN LEVERAGING ISSUES WITH �A;CHINA. TODAY, HOWEVER, CHINA WAS A BIG NATION POLITICALLY AND ECONOMICALLY AND NEPAL NEEDED TO GET ALONG WITH THIS BIG NEIGHBOR. PAUDYAL SUMMARIZED THE NEPAL-CHINESE RELATIONSHIP BY SAYING "IT IS NOT BY CHOICE BUT BY COMPULSION" THAT HMGN HAD TAKEN THE CHINESE ROUTE ON REFUGEE AND ARMS TRANSFERS. ¶4. (C/NF) MILITARY TRANSFERS WERE AN EXAMPLE OF THE "COMPULSION" OF NEPAL'S GEO-POLITICAL STATUS, AS POUDYAL DESCRIBED IT. HE CONFIRMED THE INCLUSION OF LETHAL WEAPONS AND AMMUNITION IN THE RECENT DELIVERY AND THAT NO PAYMENT WAS MADE ALTHOUGH SPECIFICS ON THE MATERIEL TRANSFER WERE NOT DISCUSSED (REF B). HE EXPRESSED A STRONG DESIRE NOT TO HAVE TO RETURN TO THE CHINESE FOR MORE EQUIPMENT AT A FUTURE TIME. NEPAL'S BALANCING ACT IN BEST INTERESTS OF ALL -------------- - ¶5. (C/NF) THE ONLY DIPLOMAT IN THE TAR, POUDYAL AVERRED THAT NEPAL'S WILLINGNESS TO GO ALONG WITH THE CHINESE ON THE REFUGEE AND MILITARY ARENAS WAS A POSITIVE FACTOR IN THE BROADER INTERNATIONAL BALANCE OF POWER, INCLUDING INDIA AND THE UNITED STATES. HE ASSERTED THAT IF NEPAL OPPOSED CHINA TOO MUCH, THE CHINESE COULD PRESSURE NEPAL TO AN EXTENT THAT OUTSIDE HELP FOR HMGN MIGHT BE REQUIRED. THE BALANCING ACT KATHMANDU 00002866 002 OF 002 THAT NEPAL WAS PLAYING WITH CHINA WAS THUS IN EVERYONE'S INTEREST. THE CROSS-BOUNDARY FLOOD THREAT -------------- ¶6. (C/NF) TURNING TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL MATTER ON WHICH POUDYAL FIRST MET THE REGIONAL ENVIRONMENT OFFICER (REO) IN LHASA WITH WHOM HE WAS FOLLOWING UP ON LARGER ISSUES, THE CONSUL GENERAL COMPLAINED THAT THE PRC MUST BE MADE TO FOLLOW UP ON ITS PROMISE TO SHARE DATA ON WATER LEVELS WITH NEPAL. THE TRANSBOUNDARY BHOTE KOSHI RIVER ENTERS NEPAL AT FIVE-TO-SEVEN MINUTES' NOTICE TIME ABOVE THE BHOTE KOSHI HYDROPOWER PLANT (THE MAJOR U.S. INVESTMENT IN NEPAL). AT THE REGIONAL MEETING ON FLASH FLOODS, TAR HYDROLOGISTS HAD OFFERED TO SHARE RIVER INFORMATION MUCH EARLIER THAN AT THE BORDER POINT IN ORDER TO HELP PREVENT FLASH FLOODS IN NEPAL. POUDYAL SAID HIGHER PRC PERSONNEL WERE NOT CARRYING THROUGH. IF THE RIVER BANKS BREAK JUST ABOVE THE BORDER, THE FLASH FLOOD THAT ENSUES COULD WASH OUT EVERYTHING IN NEPAL FROM TATOPANI NEAR THE BORDER TO DOLAGHAT. THE ECOLOGICAL DISTURBANCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS FOR HUMAN LIFE ARE IMMENSE, HE CONCLUDED. ¶7. (C/NF) COMMENT. POUDYAL'S PURPOSE SEEMED TO HAVE THE USG UNDERSTAND THE BROADER CONTEXT IN WHICH CONTROVERSIAL AREAS IN THE NEPALI-CHINESE RELATIONSHIP COULD SERVE MUCH BROADER INTERESTS, INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES. HIS HONESTY WITH INFORMATION WAS WORTHWHILE ALTHOUGH HIS PERSPECTIVE IS NOT ONE WE SHARE. END COMMENT. MILLARD