FORMER PM THAPA WORRIED ANARCHY POSSIBLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 002657 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SA/INS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2015 TAGS: PGOV PTER NP SUBJECT: FORMER PM THAPA WORRIED ANARCHY POSSIBLE REF: KATHMANDU 2556 Classified By: CDA Elisabeth I. Millard, Reason 1.4 (b/d) Maoists-Parties Form "Unnatural Alliance" -------------- ¶1. (C) Five-time former Prime Minister and leader of the Rastriya Janashakti Party (RJP) Surya Bahadur Thapa told the Charge November 30 that he was not happy that the political parties were "compelled to join the Maoists in an unnatural alliance." He explained that while the "natural alliance" would have been between the King and the Parties, the King's failure to reach out to the Parties and the Parties' inability to garner public support had forced the Parties to join with the Maoists. He worried that the Parties, especially the liberal democratic Nepali Congress, had not considered the long-term consequences of such an alliance. May Be Too Late for King To Do Anything But Accept It -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Thapa speculated that it was too late for the King to attempt to mollify the Parties by reshuffling his Cabinet, getting rid of the most corrupt and ineffective members, and appointing a Prime Minister. While he did not think that would work, he said that the King might be able to satisfy the political parties if he appointed a Prime Minister with full authority and divested himself of power. However, he noted that even this would be very difficult now that the Parties had reached an understanding with the Maoists. Or People Could Rise Up, Leading to Anarchy -------------- ¶3. (C) The former PM feared the possibility of a popular uprising that could lead to anarchy. He explained that the Parties had started justifying their understanding with the Maoists using the slogan that they were preparing to give peace to the people. This was raising people's expectations and if the people began to view the King and government as obstructing peace, there could be a groundswell against the Palace. If the popular uprising continued beyond one or two days, it could lead to anarchy. Thapa noted that many ethnic groups in Nepal feel suppressed and would seize on an opportunity that could lead to their greater participation in politics and development. He added that the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) would be unlikely to be able to protect the King. The majors and captains are in charge of daily operations, and they and most of the soldiers come from the disadvantaged ethnic groups or lower castes. Thapa commented that it was very likely that they would join with the people. He recalled the 1950 popular uprising that led to the dismantlement of the Rana regime and opined that now these ethnic groups had greater expectations and would be an even greater force that could bring down the government. He concluded that it was thus very important that the King reach out to the political parties to prevent possible anarchy. Comment -------------- ¶4. (C) Thapa, traditionally seen as close to the Palace, has become increasingly outspoken in his criticism of the King - publicly assigning blame to him for failing to reach out to the Parties. We agree with his analysis that the danger of chaos and anarchy is very real. The question is whether the King, currently stopping in Cairo on his way home from a three-week absence, will understand that it is now urgent for him to reverse a rapidly deteriorating political situation in his country. MILLARD