UML PLANS NOVEMBER 19 DEMONSTRATION IN WEST

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 002519 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SA/INS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2015 TAGS: PGOV PTER PINS PHUM NP SUBJECT: UML PLANS NOVEMBER 19 DEMONSTRATION IN WEST REF: A. KATHMANDU 2492 ¶B. KATHMANDU 2517 Classified By: Amb. James F. Moriarty, Reason 1.4 (b/d) Government Plans to Prevent CPN-UML Demonstration in West? -------------- -------------- ¶1. (C) The November 18 newspapers front-paged that zonal and regional administrators were attempting to mobilize local government officials to prevent CPN-UML's demonstration planned for November 19 in Butwal. CPN-UML General Secretary MK Nepal had told the Ambassador November 15 that the Butwal demonstration would be the first of five demonstrations planned for his party (Ref A). He said that he hoped to have 50,000 participants at each, although party leaders are currently telling the press that they expected 100,000 people to gather. According to Kashi Nath Adhikari, CPN-UML Central Committee Member, the government has started obstructing the main roads leading to Butwal. Jhalanath Khanal, another Central Committee member, told Emboff that CPN-UML had organized 900 buses in the Lumbini Zone to bring party workers and supporters to Butwal. Khanal asserted that the District Administration Office (DAO) planned to declare Butwal as a restricted area to prevent any public demonstration. Adhikari stated that, despite government efforts to prevent the demonstration, party members would try to reach Butwal for the meeting or, if unable to do so, find other alternatives to hold a peaceful and non-violent mass demonstration. Government Denies Trying to Stop Demonstration -------------- - ¶2. (C) Assistant Chief District Officer (CDO) Rudranath Basyal of Rupandehi District (where Butwal is located), however, told us that the DAO did not plan to declare restricted areas in Butwal and had not blocked any roads. Birendri Chhetri, Chairman of the District Development Committee of Rupandehi District, also denied that the DAO would obstruct the mass demonstration. He added that UML leaders had met with the district officials to inform the CDO's office that the demonstration would be peaceful, and the CDO's office had taken that positively. Role of the Maoists? -------------- ¶3. (C) Khanal also said that the government was spreading rumors that the Maoists would be involved and warning that "untoward incidents might take place." Assistant CDO Basyal commented separately that he had heard that the Maoists had been going door to door in the villages requesting that each household send at least one family member to take part in the demonstration. He added, however, that he had no hard evidence about this rumor. Chhetri also mentioned that "Maoists with guns" were going from village to village "informing" people that one member from each household should attend the demonstration. In addition, the Maoists were requesting donations to fund the demonstration. Comment -------------- ¶4. (C) The figure of 100,000 participants is highly improbable, and even MK Nepal's estimate of 50,000 was unlikely in the most optimal scenario. Any meeting that occurs is likely to be smaller. We believe that the Maoists would have to cooperate to allow the transportation of so many people for a demonstration of this size to occur. MORIARTY