PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE: WHAT THE U.S. MUST ACCOMPLISH IN GENEVA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 015950



SIPDIS



FROM THE AMBASSADOR

DEPT - PLEASE PASS TO USAID

KABUL - PLEASE PASS TO CFC-A



E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2015

TAGS: AEMR, ASEC, EAID, MASS, MOPS, PGOV, PK, PREL, PREF, Earthquake

SUBJECT: PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE: WHAT THE U.S. MUST

ACCOMPLISH IN GENEVA



REF: A. ISLAMABAD 15680 AND PREVIOUS



B. ISLAMABAD 15728

C. RIYADH 7591



Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d)



1. (C) As the United States prepares for the October 26th

Geneva Donors' Conference on the South Asian Earthquake, we

face a challenge and an opportunity of almost unprecedented

magnitude. Without indulging in hyperbole, I can assure you

that Pakistan - our frontline ally in the war on terror -- is

faced with a calamity of stunning proportions. In the two

weeks since the October 8 earthquake, we have come to realize

that early projections of human and property losses were well

short of the emerging reality. Today the UN almost doubled

its flash appeal for relief assistance to Pakistan: the

inital call for USD 272 million has been raised to USD 522

million to fund shelter, nutrition, HEALTH care and

logistical support for the next six months. In order to make

a difference on the ground, given the scale of the

destruction, and to retain our position on the moral high

ground here and throughout the Muslim world, I urge that the

U.S. delegation arrive in Geneva prepared to pledge USD 500

million in relief and reconstrution assistance.



Relief Operations -- Acute Need for Months, Not Weeks

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2. (SBU) Official estimates from Government of Pakistan

(GOP) now place the confirmed death toll at more than 50,000,

with another 75,000 seriously injured and 2.5 - 3 million

homeless. These numbers will continue to rise as relief

crews push into ever more remote valleys and hamlets.

Despite 16 days of 24/7 operations, relief has yet to reach

perhaps one-quarter of the population in inaccessible areas

of the disaster zone. Entire cities have been leveled and

hundreds of isolated villages have simply vanished.

Infrastructure -- roads, bridges, power supplies,

telecommunications -- throughout Pakistan-controlled Azad

Jammu Kashmir (AJK) and large swaths of the North West

Frontier Province (NWFP) has been destroyed. I do not

exaggerate when I say that the GOP is facing a cataclysm of

relief and reconstruction needs, demands on a scale that no

country other than the U.S. could face alone.



3. (C) For our part, we are rapidly burning through the

initial USD 50 million announced by the White House on

October 9th. This does not included the non-monetized

expenses of the U.S. military units that are sustaining the

GOP's present relief operations. This will not/not taper off

anytime soon. The hard truth is that the "acute phase" of

the disaster will last for months and that Pakistan will

require the combined assistance of USG agencies --

USAID/DART, State and all four military services -- for the

foreseeable future. Even with this extraordinary U.S.

mega-relief mission, we are not even close to addressing the

magnitude of the relief and reconstruction challenges facing

Pakistan. U.S. officials who have seen the disaster zone

first-hand have immediately understood that we must factor

acute relief needs for shelter, heavy engineering, HEALTH

care and logistical support continuing well into the next

year into our assistance strategy, even as we simultaneously

map out long-term support for the region's reconstruction.



Looking Toward Reconstruction -- What Can the U.S. Do?

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4. (C) To make a lasting difference as Pakistan rebuilds

AJK and NWFP -- two regions which collectively qualify as a

jihad heartland -- we must go to Geneva prepared to challenge

all donors to think big and dig deep. The near complete loss

of physical and social infrastructure demands a

multi-national reconstruction effort on the scale of the

international response to tsunami earlier this year. I

therefore urge that the U.S. delegation inspire other donors

by announcing a pledge of USD 500 million directed toward

reconstruction of the education and HEALTH sectors:



-- In HEALTH care, the USG would have a significant effect by

committing to rebuild, equip and staff both tertiary

hospitals destroyed in NWFP and AJK, as well as dozens of

district hospitals and primary HEALTH care facilities.



-- In education, some 2500 schools were destroyed in NWFP and

more than 3100 in AJK. The USG should rebuild at least 200

primary schools, 20 middle schools and 10 high schools in

each of the two provinces, as well as restore the Hazara

University in the Mansehra District of NWFP and AJK

University in Rawalkot.



5. (C) In addition to these two vital tasks, the U.S.

should also offer to facilitate the GOP's reconstruction

plans by offering technical assistance in

earthquake-resistant construction technologies, including

hands-on training for the architects, engineers and

construction workers who will rebuild houses, schools,

clinics and businesses.



What Can the U.S. Get Others To Do?

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6. (C) Even a pledge of USD 500 million will only scratch

away at the mountain of reconstruction needs facing the GOP.

Just as Pakistan cannot shoulder this burden alone, neither

can we -- we must do everything possible to ensure a strong

international commitment to Pakistan's long-term recovery.

Although I remain concerned about the success of the October

26th Geneva Conference (Ref B),an early and strong USG

pledge at Geneva is the best means of spurring other donors

into action. Several of the Gulf states have made generous

pledges and may be willing to do more. Europeans hesitant to

donate to the GOP out of fear of corruption and questions

regarding transparency could take heart from a vigorous U.S.

response. We must encourage these donors to take on projects

of a similar scale: rebuilding roads, restoring bridges,

reconnecting power grids and communication systems. Just as

the USG is leveraging its emergency relief assistance --

responding to GOP requests for four hospitals by supplying

two ourselves and identifying partners who can provide the

remainder -- we must also leverage our reconstruction dollars

to challenge the international community to do the same.





Generosity Now Will Pay Dividends Later

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7. (C) The U.S. role in the Geneva Conference will be a

pivotal point for securing Pakistan's new-found confidence

that we are sincere in our commitment to a long-term

strategic relationship. Our strong showing in supporting

emergency relief operations has prompted many in Pakistan to

re-evaluate their image of America. The U.S. has not enjoyed

such a positive reception by the Pakistan people, press and

public officials in decades. Expectations are high, both

here and throughout the Muslim world. Other donors are

looking to us to set the bar. (Note: In addition to snipes

in the international press that the inital U.S. pledge of USD

50 million was parsimonious, we have seen reports that other

large donors -- including the Saudis (Ref C) -- have been

less than impressed with the USG's public donation. End

note.) We risk squandering these gains if our leadership in

Geneva, both in terms of the generosity of our pledge and our

ability to generate commensurate international support, is

insufficient to the task. If we arrive in Geneva with a bold

program and the resources to back it up, even the skeptics

will take note that the U.S. is as willing to fight extremism

and instability by investing in Pakistan's recovery -- and,

by extension, the Muslim world -- as it is to underwriting

the war on terror.







CROCKER