Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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05ISLAMABAD15950 | 2005-10-24 12:34:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Islamabad |
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available. |
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 015950 |
1. (C) As the United States prepares for the October 26th
Geneva Donors' Conference on the South Asian Earthquake, we face a challenge and an opportunity of almost unprecedented magnitude. Without indulging in hyperbole, I can assure you that Pakistan - our frontline ally in the war on terror -- is faced with a calamity of stunning proportions. In the two weeks since the October 8 earthquake, we have come to realize that early projections of human and property losses were well short of the emerging reality. Today the UN almost doubled its flash appeal for relief assistance to Pakistan: the inital call for USD 272 million has been raised to USD 522 million to fund shelter, nutrition, health care and logistical support for the next six months. In order to make a difference on the ground, given the scale of the destruction, and to retain our position on the moral high ground here and throughout the Muslim world, I urge that the U.S. delegation arrive in Geneva prepared to pledge USD 500 million in relief and reconstrution assistance. Relief Operations -- Acute Need for Months, Not Weeks -------------------------- -------------------------- 2. (SBU) Official estimates from Government of Pakistan (GOP) now place the confirmed death toll at more than 50,000, with another 75,000 seriously injured and 2.5 - 3 million homeless. These numbers will continue to rise as relief crews push into ever more remote valleys and hamlets. Despite 16 days of 24/7 operations, relief has yet to reach perhaps one-quarter of the population in inaccessible areas of the disaster zone. Entire cities have been leveled and hundreds of isolated villages have simply vanished. Infrastructure -- roads, bridges, power supplies, telecommunications -- throughout Pakistan-controlled Azad Jammu Kashmir (AJK) and large swaths of the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) has been destroyed. I do not exaggerate when I say that the GOP is facing a cataclysm of relief and reconstruction needs, demands on a scale that no country other than the U.S. could face alone. 3. (C) For our part, we are rapidly burning through the initial USD 50 million announced by the White House on October 9th. This does not included the non-monetized expenses of the U.S. military units that are sustaining the GOP's present relief operations. This will not/not taper off anytime soon. The hard truth is that the "acute phase" of the disaster will last for months and that Pakistan will require the combined assistance of USG agencies -- USAID/DART, State and all four military services -- for the foreseeable future. Even with this extraordinary U.S. mega-relief mission, we are not even close to addressing the magnitude of the relief and reconstruction challenges facing Pakistan. U.S. officials who have seen the disaster zone first-hand have immediately understood that we must factor acute relief needs for shelter, heavy engineering, health care and logistical support continuing well into the next year into our assistance strategy, even as we simultaneously map out long-term support for the region's reconstruction. Looking Toward Reconstruction -- What Can the U.S. Do? -------------------------- -------------------------- 4. (C) To make a lasting difference as Pakistan rebuilds AJK and NWFP -- two regions which collectively qualify as a jihad heartland -- we must go to Geneva prepared to challenge all donors to think big and dig deep. The near complete loss of physical and social infrastructure demands a multi-national reconstruction effort on the scale of the international response to tsunami earlier this year. I therefore urge that the U.S. delegation inspire other donors by announcing a pledge of USD 500 million directed toward reconstruction of the education and health sectors: -- In health care, the USG would have a significant effect by committing to rebuild, equip and staff both tertiary hospitals destroyed in NWFP and AJK, as well as dozens of district hospitals and primary health care facilities. -- In education, some 2500 schools were destroyed in NWFP and more than 3100 in AJK. The USG should rebuild at least 200 primary schools, 20 middle schools and 10 high schools in each of the two provinces, as well as restore the Hazara University in the Mansehra District of NWFP and AJK University in Rawalkot. 5. (C) In addition to these two vital tasks, the U.S. should also offer to facilitate the GOP's reconstruction plans by offering technical assistance in earthquake-resistant construction technologies, including hands-on training for the architects, engineers and construction workers who will rebuild houses, schools, clinics and businesses. What Can the U.S. Get Others To Do? -------------------------- 6. (C) Even a pledge of USD 500 million will only scratch away at the mountain of reconstruction needs facing the GOP. Just as Pakistan cannot shoulder this burden alone, neither can we -- we must do everything possible to ensure a strong international commitment to Pakistan's long-term recovery. Although I remain concerned about the success of the October 26th Geneva Conference (Ref B), an early and strong USG pledge at Geneva is the best means of spurring other donors into action. Several of the Gulf states have made generous pledges and may be willing to do more. Europeans hesitant to donate to the GOP out of fear of corruption and questions regarding transparency could take heart from a vigorous U.S. response. We must encourage these donors to take on projects of a similar scale: rebuilding roads, restoring bridges, reconnecting power grids and communication systems. Just as the USG is leveraging its emergency relief assistance -- responding to GOP requests for four hospitals by supplying two ourselves and identifying partners who can provide the remainder -- we must also leverage our reconstruction dollars to challenge the international community to do the same. Generosity Now Will Pay Dividends Later -------------------------- 7. (C) The U.S. role in the Geneva Conference will be a pivotal point for securing Pakistan's new-found confidence that we are sincere in our commitment to a long-term strategic relationship. Our strong showing in supporting emergency relief operations has prompted many in Pakistan to re-evaluate their image of America. The U.S. has not enjoyed such a positive reception by the Pakistan people, press and public officials in decades. Expectations are high, both here and throughout the Muslim world. Other donors are looking to us to set the bar. (Note: In addition to snipes in the international press that the inital U.S. pledge of USD 50 million was parsimonious, we have seen reports that other large donors -- including the Saudis (Ref C) -- have been less than impressed with the USG's public donation. End note.) We risk squandering these gains if our leadership in Geneva, both in terms of the generosity of our pledge and our ability to generate commensurate international support, is insufficient to the task. If we arrive in Geneva with a bold program and the resources to back it up, even the skeptics will take note that the U.S. is as willing to fight extremism and instability by investing in Pakistan's recovery -- and, by extension, the Muslim world -- as it is to underwriting the war on terror. CROCKER |