AVIAN FLU IN SOUTHERN VIETNAM: COMPLACENCY SETS IN

UNCLAS HO CHI MINH CITY 000534 SIPDIS FOR CA/OCS/ACS/EAP; EAP/EX; EAP/BCLTV; OES/STC (M.GOLDBERG); OES/IHA (D.SINGER AND N.COMELLA) BANGKOK FOR RMO, CDC, USAID/RDM/A - MFRIEDMAN STATE PASS HHS FOR STEIGER USDA FOR FAS/PASS TO APHIS DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE FOR OSD/ISA/AP FOR LEW STERN DIRAFMIC FOR WENNER, MULLINS, WYMA USAID FOR GHB, ANE/DCAROLL, SCLEMENTS AND PCHAPLIN SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EAGR KPAO SENV PGOV SOCI VM AFLU SUBJECT: AVIAN FLU IN SOUTHERN VIETNAM: COMPLACENCY SETS IN REF: Ho Chi Minh City 00058 ¶1. (U) Summary: Although avian influenza continues to pose a serious medical and economic risk to Vietnam since the most recent outbreak in December 2004, average Vietnamese citizens in southern and central Vietnam have modified neither their diet nor their livelihood, continuing to eat and raise poultry. Driving this complacent attitude, in part, seem to be mixed signals given by Vietnamese media, reporting on one hand that avian flu is waning and on the other, decrying the inefficiency of local governments in enforcing necessary preventive measures. Another factor is cultural -- an ingrained tolerance and acceptance of the inevitability of disease. End summary. ¶2. (U) Since December 2004, 41 avian flu cases and 16 confirmed deaths have been reported in Vietnam, according to the World Health Organization. Regional authorities have imposed restrictions on importing poultry from other affected countries and have culled more than 46 million poultry, costing an estimated VND 1.3 trillion (approximately USD 82.3 million) since December ¶2003. Thirty-five of Vietnam's 61 provinces and urban districts have reported cases of avian influenza, particularly in and around Ho Chi Minh City and in the Mekong Delta provinces. Avian influenza has cost Vietnam an estimated VND 500 billion (approximately USD 31.6 million),reducing GDP by 0.5 per cent -- equivalent to about VND 3,000 billion (approximately USD 189.9 million),according to a report in the national daily Nguoi Lao Dong ("The Worker") dated April 19. ¶3. (SBU) The leading newspapers in HCMC, including Tuoi Tre ("Youth"),the most widely circulated daily in Vietnam, Thanh Nien ("Young People") and Saigon Giai Phong ("Saigon Liberation"), initially led the charge for public awareness of preventive safety and hygiene measures after the most recent outbreak of avian influenza in December 2004. Reporting was timely and widespread, increasing public awareness of avian influenza (reftel). In recent weeks, the intensity of media reporting on avian influenza has waned. During the last week of April there was not a single report on avian influenza in any of the prominent HCMC daily newspapers. ¶4. (SBU) Media reporting has also been inconsistent in content. Thanh Nien reported that avian influenza had been controlled in all provinces except for Tra Vinh in the Mekong Delta, and that the virus was on the wane. On the other hand, subsequent articles by HCMC dailies, including Thanh Nien, decried regional governments' implementation of safety measures. During the week of April 18, the National Steering Committee on the Prevention of Bird Flu organized a conference in Hanoi to review the fight against avian influenza. According to Thanh Nien, the committee released a report concluding that Vietnam had yet to implement all regulations to halt the spread of the virus, such as rules on the slaughter and disposal of infected poultry and the movement of poultry across international borders. While careful to not overtly criticize the central government, the report cited regional governments as being an impediment to stamping out the virus. According to Thanh Nien, the report states, "They [GVN leaders] do take it seriously at the top levels. But the fight against avian influenza is not up to the government at top levels, it's up to the chairman of the local People's Committee." ¶5. (SBU) It appears that many people in southern Vietnam view avian influenza as no different than other viruses that have beset the country. Few Vietnamese have modified their lifestyles regarding either diet or raising livestock. While HCMC has banned raising poultry, chickens can still be found moving around freely in central-city areas, sometimes near police stations. In rural areas, fowl continue to be an interlocking part of life with farmers. One ConGen officer visited rural areas of Hau Giang province in March and noticed chickens strolling in and out of farmers' homes -- locations that were part of a model rural development project. ¶6. (U) Eating habits and poultry prices reflect Vietnam's complacency towards avian influenza. Even white-collar workers seem oblivious to the danger of eating chicken and, in particular, towards eggs. At Quan An Ngon Restaurant ("Tasty Restaurant"),a popular local spot for office workers and professionals, people eat chicken dishes with little concern. Restaurateurs who, during the first outbreak of avian influenza in December 2003, had removed eggs from the menu as a precaution, have not halted the service of chicken or eggs this time around. Poultry, especially popular during holiday festivals in Vietnam, rose to VND 40,000- 50,000 (approximately USD 2.53 to 3.16)/kg in anticipation of the April 30th celebration of Vietnam's unification, reported Thanh Nien. These price levels are well above poultry prices in December and the second week of January, VND 27,300 (approximately USD 1.73)/kg and VND 25,500 (approximately USD 1.63)/kg, respectively (reftel). Since the April 30 holiday, prices have dipped slightly, but continue to move upward. The current retail price of slaughtered whole chicken is about VND 30,000-32,000 (approximately USD 1.89 to USD 2.02)/kilogram. The fast-food restaurant Lotteria is buying chicken at VND 32,000 (approximately USD 2.02)/kilogram or higher. Wholesale supplier Metro is promoting chicken in its weekly sales flyer at VND 25,000 (approximately USD 1.58)/kilogram, perhaps to regain consumer confidence in chicken. While sales to large restaurants and hotels remain steady, sales to supermarkets have been accompanied by a "buy-back guarantee" if the supermarket is unable to sell the chicken after several weeks. ¶7. (SBU) COMMENT: Avian influenza will continue to pose a danger to Vietnam. What is most alarming right now is the complacency with which the average Vietnamese person perceives the danger of the virus, ignoring the most basic recommended precautions with respect to diet and economic activity. In order to help modify this behavior, the Vietnamese media needs to renew its consistency and vigilance in reporting the continued danger of the virus, as it initially did in December 2004. END COMMENT. WINNICK NNNN