WASIT UIA/555 SLATE LEADER CONFIDENT IN CAMPAIGN'S FINAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HILLAH 000373 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2015 TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL IZ SUBJECT: WASIT UIA/555 SLATE LEADER CONFIDENT IN CAMPAIGN'S FINAL DAYS CLASSIFIED BY: ALFRED FONTENEAU, REGIONAL COORDINATOR, REO, AL-HILLAH, STATE. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Deputy Governor and leader of the United Iraqi Alliance (Ballot Number 555) list in Wasit, Mohammed Al-Khateeb (Shi'a Islamist independent) is confident that a strong performance in the December 15 national election will lay the groundwork for continued Shi'a Islamist dominance of the province. Sadrist cooperation and support has led to a more unified UIA slate than originally anticipated and a temporary improvement in the province's security situation, according to Al-Khateeb. END SUMMARY. -------------- - Al-KHATEEB: UIA/555 IS THE ONLY LOGICAL CHOICE -------------- - ¶2. (C) Deputy Governor al-Khateeb, in a December 11 meeting with the Hillah Regional Coordinator and Regional Embassy Office staff, was optimistic that the UIA slate would perform extremely well in the December 15 election, winning as many as six of the eight seats allotted to Wasit. Al-Khateeb, exuding confidence after a UIA rally in Kut the day before, described the slate as the only choice that "represents the suffering of the Iraqi people". In a swipe at his competitors on Ahmed Chalabi's National Iraqi Council list (Ballot Number 569) and Iyad Allawi's National Iraqi List (Ballot Number 731),Al-Khateeb drew a clear distinction between the UIA candidates who had "escaped from Iraq out of principle" and those who had fled because "of money or title." ¶3. (C) Acknowledging that reconstruction and security were foremost on the minds of Wasit voters, Al-Khateeb described the UIA as better positioned than competing slates to provide for the needs of all Iraqis and stated it would work to improve the record of the current government. Al-Khateeb also said he supported a national unity government. Surprisingly, he predicted the UIA/555 list would draw some support from the Sunnis in Northern Wasit, asserting, "only the UIA can save the Sunnis from their own political extremists". (NOTE: Al-Khateeb is the only UIA/555 representative in Wasit to make this claim. END NOTE) -------------- -------------- SHI'A ISLAMIST DOMINATION STRENGTHENED BY COOPERATIVE SADRISTS -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) A strong performance in the December 15 election, Al-Khateeb stated, is an important first step towards further solidifying the Shi'a Islamist grip on the province in local elections to be held after the formation of a national government. Al-Khateeb cited his own ascendance to the top of the UIA list as an example of political cooperation between Shi'a Islamist parties. Though he is nominally independent, his good rapport with all parties made him a logical choice to lead the UIA slate, according to Al-Khateeb. (NOTE: Al-Khateeb is also related to the current SCIRI national assembly member Shaykh Jawad Al-Khateeb END NOTE.) ¶5. (C) After initial difficulties in persuading Wasit Sadrists to actively campaign as part of the UIA list, Al-Khateeb said they were now the critical element in expanding the dominance of Shi'a Islamist parties in Wasit. While not "perfect democrats", the outward religiosity of the Sadrists will convince extremely pious voters to go to the polls and cast their ballots for the UIA slate, according to Al-Khateeb. -------------- WASIT SECURITY SITUATION STABLE-FOR NOW -------------- ¶6. (C) Al-Khateeb confirmed that the security situation in Wasit has stabilized since an outbreak of violence between SCIRI/Badr Organization supporters and Sadrists in mid-November. He attributed this development primarily to orders reportedly given by Sadrist leaders in Najaf to their counterparts in Wasit to cooperate in the UIA campaign. He also praised the work of new Wasit IP chief Mohammed Hussein Abid Al Hadi Mahbooda (aka Abu Ali Al-Wasity). After initial turmoil over the appointment, all parties in the dispute appear to accept his position as IP Chief for the immediate future. Al-Khateeb explicitly endorsed the role of Al-Wasity in improving cooperation with Coalition Forces in the province. ¶7. (C) COMMENT. Al-Khateeb's confident demeanor accurately reflects the dominant position Shi'a Islamists-led by the UIA slate-hold in Wasit. Anything less than five of the eight seats allocated to the province would be a dramatic disappointment for UIA/555. His comments about the improving security situation were encouraging. However, it is unclear at this point whether the reconciliation between SCIRI/Badr Organization members and Wasit Sadrists will last beyond the election. END COMMENT. FONTENEAU