MODEST STAY-AWAY RESULTS CHALLENGE BROAD ALLIANCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000831 SIPDIS SENSITIVE AF FOR DAS T. WOODS AF/S FOR B. NEULING OVP FOR NULAND NSC FOR DNSA ABRAMS, SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2010 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR ZI SUBJECT: MODEST STAY-AWAY RESULTS CHALLENGE BROAD ALLIANCE Classified By: Charge d' Affaires a.i. under Section 1.4 b/d -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The NCA,s Lovemore Madukhu, organizer of last week,s stayaway action, called it a limited success. However, Madhuku acknowledged that poor organization and communications had hampered the effort. Other opposition leaders were less charitable. While some alliance members felt slighted in the planning stages, others questioned the efficacy of stayaways in general. None of the alliance members discussed specific plans to initiate any mass action in the coming week. End Summary. -------------- NCA: More Protests Coming -------------- ¶2. (C) Lovemore Madhuku of the National Constitutional Assembly (NCA) told PolOff on June 13 that the stay away had been partially successful and that the Broad Alliance would engage in more active protests in the coming weeks, although nothing was planned for this week. Madhuku said he would not know further details of planned protests until after consulting with other opposition leaders. -------------- MDC: More Meetings Coming -------------- ¶3. (C) Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) Secretary for Presidential Affairs Gandhi Mudzingwa told PolOff on June 14 that the MDC did not regard the stay away as a success. He said many in the party were critical of Madhuku for not having better organized the action and felt that only the MDC could truly lead such an effort. Mudzingwa said the MDC planned no mass actions were for this week, nor did he know of any other organization planning such activities. The party leadership did plan to meet its Broad Alliance partners on June 21 to assess the situation and strategize. He expected the party would push for tactics of broad localized resistance in the coming months. ¶4. (C) Mudzingwa said the failure of the stay away was the latest evidence that such new methods of resistance were needed. To that end, the party had formed a Democratic Resistance Committee to move its focus from a democratic political party to a democratic resistance movement. The MDC leadership would discuss this and other issues at a Bulawayo retreat on June 16. When asked about whether the MDC would apply its new tactics in response to Operation Restore Order, Mudzingwa said the MDC had chosen not to spearhead a direct response. Diverting party attention to the operation would "distract" it from the larger agenda. -------------- ZCTU: Inactive and Left Out -------------- ¶5. (C) On June 13, Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU) Information Officer Mlamleli Sibanda told PolOff that the recent stayaway action had a poor response due to bad organization and lack of consultation among Broad Alliance partners, like the ZCTU. Sibanda intimated that the ZCTU was more concerned about fostering consensus in its General Council than with planning stayaway follow-on actions for now in any event. (N.B. Key ZCTU players were in Geneva for ILO meetings during the run-up to the stay-away.) -------------- CHRA: Skeptical of Broad Alliance's Capacity -------------- ¶6. (C) Combined Harare Residents Association (CHRA) Chairman Mike Davies said the stayaway was not a failure but recognized that organization and communications problems existed. He told PolOff on June 13 that the opposition must better harness the population,s anger, and suggested the establishment of &a shadow government outside of the occupied state8 with regional and international support. Davies added that a significant obstacle for the opposition is the fact that many of the educated middle-class people who would normally have protested have left the country. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Most of the opposition sat on their hands last week and yet have chosen to blame Madhuku for the failure of the stay away ) the first real action by the opposition since the March election. This apparent lack of solidarity suggests we may be in for an extended period of relative inaction by the opposition, an unfortunate response to rising government repression. SCHULTZ