STAY-AWAY PLANNED FOR JUNE 9 AND 10

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000788 SIPDIS AF FOR DAS T. WOODS AF/S FOR B. NEULING OVP FOR NULAND NSC FOR DNSA ABRAMS, SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2010 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ZI MDC SUBJECT: STAY-AWAY PLANNED FOR JUNE 9 AND 10 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Eric T. Schultz under Section 1. 4 b/d -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The "Broad Alliance" of civil society and opposition groups, including the MDC, is organizing a mass work stoppage for June 9 and 10, as a first step toward possible later mass protests. However, the National Constitutional Assembly's (NCA) Lovemore Madhuku appears to the stay-away's driving force, rather than the MDC. End Summary. -------------- First Large-Scale Mass-Action Planned -------------- ¶2. (C) Through the Broad Alliance, Madhuku is organizing a mass stay-away June 9 and 10, calling for citizens to stay home from work those days to protest Operation Restore Order. Madhuku told emboffs that, depending on the response to the stay-away, the Broad Alliance would organize follow-on mass protests next week. He said that the organizations under the Broad Alliance were trying their best to disseminate information about the stay-away, adding that those with Internet access would certainly receive the information but that he was worried that ordinary industrial workers would not get the message. ¶3. (C) Madhuku said not all in the Broad Alliance were giving equal effort to getting the message out, which he attributed to a delay in forming a consensus as to the timing of the stay-away. However, Madhuku expressed confidence that it would be successful and said the stay-away was just the first step, with follow-on street protests planned for next week. (N.B. In a positive development, the independent weekly The Standard reported the stay-away plans in a front-page article June 5, providing much needed publicity for the mass action.) -------------- MDC Role -------------- ¶4. (C) Gandhi Mudzingwa, MDC Director of Presidential Affairs, confirmed that Lovemore Madhuku was the impetus behind the stay-away. He said that the party could not go against it and would thus support it but that he, personally, and many in the party felt that there should be more preparation before any mass action. That said, although the MDC was not planning any particular activity as a party it was trying to spread word of the stay-away through the party,s structures. He added that even if the stay-away did not fully succeed it could project a message that the opposition was still active, and might thereby give people hope. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) The success of the stay-away may be hard to measure. With economic activity at such a low level, even if most employed Zimbabweans stay away from work, the impact may not be very noticeable. The opposition hopes to turn downtown Harare, as well as other major cities, into ghost towns, but Operation Restore Order has already accomplished that to some extent. Moreover, the plan,s passivity fails to tap into the anger of the tens of thousands who have lost their homes and businesses through the GOZ's recent actions. That said, the opposition had to start somewhere and the stay-away has the advantage of avoiding direct confrontation with the regime while potentially building momentum. For its part, the MDC,s unwillingness to a leading role in this event will likely reinforce the perception of many Zimbabweans that the party remains paralyzed by the March parliamentary election results and is unable to respond effectively to the government. SCHULTZ