TSVANGIRAI GAINING UPPER HAND IN SENATE DEBATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001455 SIPDIS AF/S FOR B. NEULING SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2015 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ZI MDC SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI GAINING UPPER HAND IN SENATE DEBATE REF: A. REF A: HARARE 1446 ¶B. REF B: HARARE 1421 ¶C. REF C: HARARE 1405 Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell for reasons 1.5 b/d -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai appears to be emerging on top in the intra-party debate over participation in the Senate elections. Tsvangirai,s stance has clearly resonated with the MDC,s rank and file, which believes that participation would only legitimize a corrupt and powerless institution. The National Executive, convened by Tsvangirai on Saturday, supported his decision to overturn the earlier decision by the party,s Executive Council to participate in the vote. That said, MDC provincial leaders in the three Ndebele areas have continued the nomination process for Senate candidates raising the specter of an MDC split along ethnic lines. Tsvangirai successfully quelled efforts by four of the MDC,s &Top 68 to involve South African President Mbeki in mediation efforts. End Summary. -------------- -------------- Tsvangirai Winning the Battle for Hearts and Minds SIPDIS -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Tsvangirai appears to be emerging the victor in the fierce battle over the MDC,s participation in the November 26 race for Senate. The MDC leader instigated the crisis on October 12 when he overturned a 33 to 31 Executive Council decision in favor of contesting (ref B and C). Tsvangirai,s stance against the Senate has clearly resonated with the opposition,s rank and file, who remain loyal to the MDC president and who appear increasingly eager to confront the government. Within the MDC, the party,s youth and women,s leagues support the boycott, as do the party structures in nine of the 12 provinces ) the three Ndebele provinces are the only holdouts. ¶3. (C) Civil society has also backed Tsvangirai, roundly criticizing the reconstituted Senate as a worthless and patronage-filled institution. The National Constitutional Assembly and the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions have both publicly declared their opposition to the Senate. And, despite the doom and gloom portrayed by the state-controlled media, Zimbabwe,s independent press has reported favorably on Tsvangirai,s gambit, echoing the theme that the Senate is merely a patronage-generating machine for ZANU-PF. -------------- National Executive Back Tsvangirai -------------- ¶4. (C) In response to MDC Vice President Gibson Sibanda and others who charge he has adopted anti-democratic means to enforce his opinion, Tsvangirai convened the party,s National Executive on Saturday. The Executive voted to support Tsvangirai,s decision to boycott, although Sibanda, Ncube, and other members of the pro-participation faction were not present. The Executive,s decision came ahead of Monday,s sitting of the nomination courts, with which all candidates ) even those not endorsed by the party - must register. ¶5. (C) Tsvangirai also successfully outmaneuvered efforts by his pro-participation rivals to insert South African President Thabo Mbeki as a mediator in the intra-party dispute. On 20 September, Sibanda and Ncube, along with deputy Secretary General Gift Chimanikire and party treasurer Fletcher Dulini Ncube traveled to Pretoria to meet with Mbeki; national chairman Isaac Matongo reportedly backed out of the trip at the last minute. Fending off Mbeki,s offer to moderate, Tsvangirai told reports that the South African President was being &abused8 by party members who had attempted to drag him into an internal party affair. -------------- But Ndebele Going Forward With Participation -------------- ¶6. (C) Tsvangirai,s only setback as of late afternoon today came when, as expected, the MDC leadership in Bulawayo and Matabeleland North and South nominated five candidates each to contest the election. MDC Secretary for Legal Affairs David Coltart earlier this month told poloff that the Ndebele people had worked hard to rid themselves of ZANU-PF politicians and did not want them back by default (ref A). -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) The debate over participation in the Senate may very well prove a defining moment for the MDC and Tsvangirai. Months of intra-party squabbling that have paralyzed the party have now come to a head. Tsvangirai appears to be using the crisis to reassert his leadership and to rally the party behind him. A rejuvenated MDC may well be a more confrontational MDC and given the increasing unpopularity of the government, the moment may be propitious. There is still a real chance of a split within the MDC (and unfortunately along ethnic lines) if the Ndebele provinces contest the elections. That said, we believe the locus of the opposition would remain around Tsvangirai, who maintains broad-based support, and we believe that is unlikely the Ndebele people will ever reconcile itself with a ZANU-PF government. End Comment. DELL