THE TWENTY-YEAR REVIEW OF VIETNAM'S DOI MOI POLICY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 003361 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS AND EB/TPP/BTA/ANA GOODMAN AND WICKMAN STATE PASS USTR ELENA BRYAN AND GREG HICKS STATE PASS USAID FOR ANE/AA KUNDER/KENNEDY/WARD USDOC FOR 4431/MAC/AP/OPB/VLC/HPPHO TREASURY FOR OASIA SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON PREL PINR VM DPOL SUBJECT: THE TWENTY-YEAR REVIEW OF VIETNAM'S DOI MOI POLICY SENSITIVE - DO NOT POST ON THE INTERNET ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In remarks prepared for a conference reviewing Vietnam's "Doi Moi" or "renovation" policy after twenty years, Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dzung emphasized the political/social component of the policy and the importance of the Community Party in the process of reform. He also outlined three criteria by which Vietnam's progress on "Doi Moi" should be judged. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) The Vietnamese Academy of Social Sciences, the United Nations Development Program, and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency hosted their third meeting this year on December 15-16 to review the progress of Vietnam's "Doi Moi" policy. (NOTE: For ideological reasons, the Vietnamese authorities avoid using the terms "economic," "political" or "social" reform. Instead they use "Doi Moi" or "renovation." See comment in para 5. End note.) Most of the conference speakers were drawn from Western academic communities or "think tank" institutions; they gave presentations on everything from the future relevance of ASEAN and gender differences in Vietnam to the larger socio-economic forces that effect globalization and post-communist transition. They did not specifically address the progress of Vietnam's "Doi Moi" policy, which opened the country to outside development in the early 1990s. ¶3. (SBU) Vietnamese government officials present at the conference only offered welcoming remarks. However, they did distribute in English the ranking Deputy Prime Minister (DPM) Nguyen Tan Dzung's Executive Summary of the "Doi Moi" Conference and its goals. DPM Dzung's Executive Summary, in contrast to the international speakers, dealt specifically with the progress and success of "Doi Moi" policy. In it, he noted that there are seven "lessons learned" from the "Doi Moi" experience that Vietnam still needs to fully assimilate: 1) to persevere in the goal of national independence and socialism; 2) to be comprehensive; 3) to base Doi Moi on political and social stability; 4) to serve the interests of the people, rely on the people and be responsive to new ideas; 5) to base Doi Moi on domestic resources and make the best of outside resources; 6) to uphold the leading role and capacity of the Community Party of Vietnam; and, 7) to bring into full play the strength of the whole united nation. ¶4. (SBU) Dzung's concluded his paper by noting that "Doi Moi," which was supposed to transform a command economy into a socialist-oriented market economy, should be judged on three criteria. First, to what extent has the delegation of public services and the scope and scale of government intervention in the market actually changed? Second, where is the public sector working well and how can public institutions work together? Third, how well has the Government managed the social change that comes with economic development, identifying and responding to the changing aspirations of the population as they become wealthier? ¶5. (SBU) Comment: Dzung's executive summary was notable for three reasons. First, the DPM established the most concise and useful measure of any presented at the conference of Vietnam's success with "Doi Moi." Secondly, he was the only forum participant to address a key aspect of "Doi Moi" that is often forgotten by international observers: although it promotes economic development, "Doi Moi" is essentially a policy of political and social control aimed at preserving and legitimizing Communist party rule. Thirdly, the DPM noted that "lessons learned" from "Doi Moi" had yet to be "absorbed" by the Government of Vietnam (GVN) and others involved in drafting the next Five-Year Plan, suggesting that he believes the true goals of the policy have been somewhat forgotten in these years of rapid economic growth. Although it is likely that Dzung is currently striving to appear more ideologically conservative in the run-up to next year's Party Congress (like many other party officials),his reminder that "Doi Moi" is fundamentally an effort to maintain the Community Party's supremacy in Vietnam suggests that we will not likely see significant politically liberalizing reform led by the Party despite the burgeoning economy. End Comment. MARINE