ASEAN, ARF, and the EAS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 001682 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL VM ARF ASEAN SUBJECT: ASEAN, ARF, and the EAS ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Vietnam is actively preparing for the July ASEAN ministerial in Vientiane, where ASEAN will adopt a formal position on the East Asia Summit (EAS). There is momentum in favor of the decision to invite India to participate in the EAS, but Australia's participation is still not assured. ASEAN intends to keep control of the EAS. On the subject of Burma, ASEAN leaders have received assurances from Senior General Than Shwe that Burma intends to pass on the 2006 ASEAN Chairmanship, and will announce that at the Vientiane ministerial. Vietnam is looking at the USG's representation for this year's ASEAN Regional Forum/Post Ministerial Conference (ARF/PMC) as an indication of Southeast Asia's importance to the United States. End Summary. EAST ASIA SUMMIT: PARTICIPATION AND OTHER ISSUES -------------- --- ¶2. (SBU) In a conversation with Poloff June 23, MFA ASEAN expert Nguyen Van Hung said Vietnam understands that one of the main tasks at the Vientiane ASEAN Ministers' Meeting (AMM) in July will be to confirm formally the consensus on the East Asia Summit (EAS) that came out of the April Foreign Ministers' Retreat in Cebu, Philippines. Specifically, Vietnam expects ASEAN to affirm that, with regard to the EAS: -- ASEAN will be "in the driver's seat;" -- ASEAN will chair the EAS, which will be held at the location of the ASEAN+3 summit in Kuala Lumpur immediately following the ASEAN+3 summit; and, -- The EAS will include the ASEAN+3 countries plus other countries who wish to participate and who meet the following conditions: ¶A. Full ASEAN dialog partner ¶B. Maintaining an effective cooperative relationship with ASEAN ¶C. Agreeing to accede to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC). The final decision on EAS participation will be made in Vientiane, Hung said. At the same time, the ministers will decide on the agenda of the EAS and whether or not there will be a joint declaration, as well as the content of any proposed declaration. After Vientiane, ASEAN will present its EAS conclusions to the +3 countries, Hung explained. He also confirmed that India, New Zealand and Australia are candidates to participate in the EAS. "India is in already," Hung said, "and Australia and New Zealand are stuck on the TAC point." If Australia and New Zealand are willing to sign a document pledging to accede to the TAC, "that would be sufficient to participate." ¶3. (SBU) The Australian Ambassador confirmed to Poloff that signing the TAC remains an obstacle, but he believes it is a minor one. "The legal issues are resolved," he said. "We are currently circulating documents that acknowledge Australia's legal concerns regarding the TAC." He assessed the likelihood of Australia's meeting all of the requirements to announce an agreement to accede to the TAC as 80 percent and expressed his belief that this announcement would head off any late effort by Malaysia to make the conditions for participation more restrictive. ¶4. (SBU) The Singaporean First Secretary was less optimistic. She characterized the Australian effort as an attempt "to determine the minimum they have to do" and "to obtain a legal escape clause" from the TAC, and said that the exercise was not being received well in ASEAN capitals and could jeopardize Australia's bid to participate. This effort had emboldened those who want to see more restrictive criteria for participation, she said. "We support the Australian bid completely, but cannot convince other ASEANs to accept a watered-down commitment to the TAC." BURMA AND ASEAN -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Hung obediently recited official Vietnamese talking points regarding Burma's upcoming chairmanship, saying that the decision whether or not to assume the 2006 chairmanship was "in Myanmar's hands" and that Vietnam and other ASEAN countries would "refrain from interfering in Myanmar's internal affairs." Deviating a bit from his script, Hung said Vietnam knows that the Burmese will "do something" regarding the domestic political situation, which would then present ASEAN with the unwelcome challenge of diplomatically and accurately evaluating Burma's political progress. When asked about Vietnam's reaction to former Malaysian PM Mahathir's criticism of Burma and statement that the junta should release Aung San Suu Kyi, Hung said "Mahathir is saying what the other ASEAN countries are thinking." ¶6. (SBU) Our Singapore Embassy contact said the issue has already been decided: Burma will definitely step down. "The only issue is the wording of the statement now, according to what the Thai leadership has told our Prime Minister," she said. She stated that Burmese leader Than Shwe told Singaporean PM Lee Hsien Loong at the Asia-Africa Summit in April that Burma will step aside. Cambodian PM Hun Sen also told PM Lee that Than Shwe had given him similar assurances. Hung from the Vietnamese MFA had one more observation to make: "we don't think the Burmese government has enough money to host the ASEAN chairmanship right now." U.S. PARTICIPATION IN THE ARF -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Hung asked if Secretary Rice would attend the ARF/PMC in Vientiane this July. When told that the Secretary's schedule was not yet set, Hung said the GVN SIPDIS "understands that she has a busy schedule." However, he said, the USG should be aware that ASEAN is "watching carefully" to see if the Secretary "attaches enough importance" to Southeast Asia to attend the ARF/PMC. "It is her first opportunity to visit Southeast Asia," he noted. "Will she take it?" BOARDMAN