ATLANTIC CANADA AND THE 2005 FEDERAL ELECTION: NO SEISMIC

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SUBJECT: ATLANTIC CANADA AND THE 2005 FEDERAL ELECTION: NO SEISMIC
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THIS CABLE REPEATS THE TEXT OF REFTEL FOR THOSE POSTS WHICH DID
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1. Summary: With a federal election now called for January 23,
our contacts see little change occurring in the Liberals' hold
on most of Atlantic Canada's 32 Parliamentary seats. The U.S.
and bilateral issues likely will not be major factors in the
campaign. End Summary


2. Voters in Canada's Atlantic Provinces (New Brunswick, Nova
Scotia, Newfoundland-Labrador and Prince Edward Island) are not
expecting to see much change in the regional lineup after the
January 23 federal election. As the campaign starts to unfold,
the Liberals will be looking to defend the 22 of the 32 seats
they now have in the region, with the Conservatives seeking to
add to the seven they have and the New Democrats hoping to pick
off a falling Liberal or two to add to their current three
seats. A drastic change in seat allocation seems unlikely given
that regional polls show the federal Liberal party is still the
favorite among Atlantic Canadians, followed by the
Conservatives, and with the NDP in third place. As with the
2004 campaign, voters are still wary of Stephen Harper and the
Conservatives, viewing them as too closed-minded and too focused
on western Canada, both perceived being to the detriment of the
Atlantic region. The NDP continues to be viewed as the
traditional third party, and one which still needs to work on
establishing a presence in many constituencies throughout the
region.


3. Key issues for the region, as always, will be the economy
and jobs. Management of the fishery will be a factor in
Newfoundland-Labrador. National unity has also been mentioned
by some of our contacts as a potential issue, since the prospect
of the Bloc Quebecois taking even more Quebec seats tends to
reinforce Atlantic Canadian feelings of isolation. Other than
routine shots about the rise of "American style" anything --
campaigns, health care, you name it -- we do not at this point
see the U.S. or bilateral issues as major factors in races in
this part of the country.


4. Despite the sentiment that there will be little change in
the configuration of the 32 seats after January 23, there are
some interesting contests starting up. In Nova Scotia, there
will be lots of attention on the Halifax riding to see whether
the Liberals can come up with a strong contender to go up
against the >Mn"qn easy task given that prevailing sentiment is
that the seat is Alexa's to keep. Over in New Brunswick the
campaign there seems to be more exciting given a long-standing
tiff between the federal Liberal MPs and Conservative Premier
Bernard Lord over federal funding for several projects.
Observers say the squabble could spill over into the election
campaign. Some Conservative strategists believe these bad
feelings could topple at least two Liberal MPs including Indian
and Northern Affairs minister Andy Scott. Prince Edward Island
is looking like it will keep its same four Liberals although the
Conservatives believe they might stand a chance of knocking off
Charlottetown's Shawn Murphy who represents PEI in the Martin
government. (In a strange alignment of duties, PEI MP Joe
McGuire, the minister responsible for the Atlantic Canada
Opportunity Agency, is not responsible for the province, Murphy
is.) In Newfoundland-Labrador there are no indications that
much will change in the configuration of that province's seven
seats. The Liberals are expecting to hold their current five,
but the Conservatives are hoping that the retirement of Cabinet
Minister John Efford will open the door for them to add his
Avalon riding to their total.


5. Comment: At this stepping off point the pundits see little
change in Atlantic Canada's MP lineup following the January 23
election. However, there is always the cautionary note that a
lot of things can happen in the next two months. The parties
all view the region as an important battleground with each seat
vitally important. Consequently, we can expect to see lots of
attention on key ridings where a relatively few votes will make
a difference. One regional columnist, with a cynical viewpoint,
remarked that the voters here "will be wooed obscenely as long
as there is the possibility that the region's help will be
needed to form a government." Recent federal spending
announcements for the region have been flowing freely,
indicating that the wooing has already started. End comment.
HILL