NOVA SCOTIA'S PREMIER TO STEP DOWN

UNCLAS HALIFAX 000209 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ETRD PREL CA SUBJECT: NOVA SCOTIA'S PREMIER TO STEP DOWN ¶1. Summary: Nova Scotia Conservative Premier John Hamm announced on September 29 that he would resign as soon as the party finds a new leader. End Summary. ¶2. Nova Scotia Premier John Hamm ended speculation about his political future on September 29 with his announcement that he was giving up the premier's job. At age 67, Hamm has made no secret of the fact that he was seriously contemplating retiring SIPDIS from politics and sitting out the next provincial election which could come at any time with a minority government led by the Progressive Conservatives. He told former Ambassador Cellucci in January that he did not want to commit to the three more years in office which would be required if he were to run again. While the last election in 2003 left Hamm and the Conservatives with the most seats in the legislature, 25 of the total 52, they were outnumbered by the opposition, split between the New Democrats with their 15 seats and the Liberals with their 12. Acknowledging that the voters' preference was to avoid another immediate trip to the polls, the opposition NDP has worked out an informal agreement to keep Hamm's government afloat in order to maintain some stability and allow the Conservatives to pass key legislature such as provincial budgets. ¶3. The premier, a well-liked former country doctor, has said that he will stay on as leader for now until the party can find a replacement, which should not be too difficult. Pundits have already come up with a substantial list of would-be successors including some cabinet ministers, nominated candidates for the next election and a few outside of government and politics. While the party executive works out the dates for a leadership convention, it will not take long to see who starts campaigning even before the starting gun sounds. ¶4. The change in leadership, while significant for the Nova Scotia Tories because of Hamm's personal popularity here, will have little or no impact on bilateral issues. Any likely Conservative leader will continue Hamm's policies of seeking good relations with the U.S., and in particular with the Ambassador. The provincial NDP, the party most likely to form a government if the Tories fail to get a majority in the next election, has tended to pursue policies that are significantly to the right of the national NDP, and is probably more pro-defense than many Liberals and Conservatives in other parts of the country. The provincial Liberal party is in disarray and seems unlikely to do better than a weak third in an election, but even if it were to win it would pursue pro-trade and investment policies not too different from the Conservatives. HILL