EX-PRESIDENT NOBOA FORCIBLY RETURNED TO GUAYAQUIL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUAYAQUIL 001225

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR EC
SUBJECT: EX-PRESIDENT NOBOA FORCIBLY RETURNED TO GUAYAQUIL

REF: GUAYAQUIL 567


1. (U) Tactical police stormed the beachfront home of former
President Gustavo Noboa on October 11 and loaded him on to a
helicopter under orders from the provincial police chief that
he be returned to Guayaquil. Noboa has been under house
arrest for more than five months, after he returned to
Ecuador on April 3 from his brief self-exile in the Dominican
Republic. (reftel) He had originally left the country in
August 2004, when his arch nemesis and PSC stalwart Leon
Febres Cordero (LFC) charged him with supposed irregular
restructuring of Ecuador's external debt while Noboa was
president.


2. (U) In this latest move, Noboa left Guayaquil without any
type of escort (police were no longer guarding his home). As
his defense, he claimed that a local judge had recognized his
right to change the location of his house arrest to his true
residence in the retreat town of Punta Blanca (offering as
proof that he only rents the house in Guayaquil). He also
argued that he had discussed this plan many times with
authorities, both within the police force and the Ministry of
Government. LFC was quick to admonish Noboa in the press,
stating "he has no right to be given any privileges." Noboa
quickly retorted that LFC was behind the questionable police
action. He went on to note that even Guayaquil mayor Jaime
Nebot (PSC) believes the law enforcement authorities went
overboard in their zealousness to bring Noboa back to
Guayaquil (Nebot's second such public spat with LFC in just
one week).


3. (SBU) While Noboa's lawyer prepares a formal lawsuit for
the Interamerican Commission for Human Rights seeking his
release from house arrest until there is a Supreme Court that
can hear his case, Noboa announced that he is seriously
considering a return to politics. However, Noboa's close
confidant and former Minister of Government Rodolfo Barniol
later told PolOff that Noboa cannot afford to re-enter
politics right now. Between the outstanding house arrest
order and the threat of further charges being brought against
him by the acting comptroller general, it would be very
difficult. "To say nothing of the strong-arm tactics LFC
would take to oppose it," maintained Barniol.


4. (SBU) Barniol commented that Noboa is "a victim of the
(in)justice system" here in Ecuador, and added that the
situation the former president finds himself in can all be
traced back to the maneuverings of LFC. When asked what he
believes LFC's motivation to be, Barniol replied that it
stems from two things: Noboa's close relationship with LFC's
father (Agustin Febres Cordero Tyler),which LFC came to
resent, and the fact that while president, Noboa refused to
do the bidding of LFC's party.


5. (SBU) Noboa's close friend also believes that things are
going to get worse for the former president. Specifically,
in addition to the charges settled against him by LFC, Noboa
faces the possibility of additional charges from the acting
comptroller general, who is close to LFC. These latest
charges would be against Noboa and his two Ministers of
Economy and Finance (Luis Iturralde and Jorge Gallardo) for
supposedly arranging for the transfer of $48 million to
Salomon Smith Barney for their role in Ecuador's debt
restructuring negotiations. The American company was the
official advisor to the GOE during these negotiations.
However, the comptroller general is portraying this $48
million as above their fee and more along the lines of making
some backroom deal with the banks. While Barniol admitted
that he could not provide any evidence of this intended
action, he stated the announcement is to be made in the next
week or two.

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COMMENT
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6. (SBU) This latest political drama is another illustration
of the debilitating predicament facing Ecuador's democratic
institutions. The current lack of a Supreme Court in Ecuador
means that Noboa's case is literally in limbo (under
Ecuadorian law only the president of the Supreme Court can
rule on Noboa's appeal). The last Supreme Court president
annulled the charges against Noboa and the person who
reinstated them was a district attorney, not a judge. The
fact that LFC came out early and very vocally against Noboa's
right to shift residences seems to confirm his personal
motives. It is also interesting that Nebot continues to
distance himself from LFC publicly.

JOHNSON